Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

35 minutes ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

I’ve definitely read that was our best draft. But I’m asking how much information you have on these players that we’ve yet to see play. I personally don’t watch college baseball or high school to say that I think someone is better or worse. 
   My guess is Elias wanted to play it safe this year and last given the circumstances? The floor of the organization seems to be a bit safer than what we’ve had in past years. How many top baseball picks play like top first round picks? Even Trout fell to the later part of the first and when I watch him play I think How can anyone pass on the way he plays the game. 

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

Lawlar was drafted by the D'back's.

[camdencrush]

Didn’t the Red Sox pick before the orioles ?

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, camdencrush said:

Didn’t the Red Sox pick before the orioles ?

Yes, 1 pick before - and they drafted Mayer - who looks like the best of the SS prospects to me - though I love Watson - who was easily the best value of the SS's, imo.  

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Mancini is a 29 year-old, right handed hitting first baseman.  Those are not in high demand.  He’s in arbitration and will be making $10+ mil next year. 

I doubt he will make that much.  He’s making $4.75 mm now.  Very few players see their salary more than double in Arb 3.   This reminds me of when people were insisting that Villar would make $10 mm in Arb 3 and he settled for $8.2 mm.  Villar was making almost exactly what Mancini is making in Arb 2, and Villar had a career year heading to Arb 3, which Mancini isn’t doing.   I think Mancini lands about where Villar did.  

[Number5]

4 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

This post shows exactly how much you know about the draft.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I doubt he will make that much.  He’s making $4.75 mm now.  Very few players see their salary more than double in Arb 3.   This reminds me of when people were insisting that Villar would make $10 mm in Arb 3 and he settled for $8.2 mm.  Villar was making almost exactly what Mancini is making in Arb 2, and Villar had a career year heading to Arb 3, which Mancini isn’t doing.   I think Mancini lands about where Villar did.  

I'm not sure that the difference between $8.2 and $10 mil changes my argument.  And, Mancini's Arb 2 situation is unique.  He would have made more than Villar this year if he hadn't missed 2020 due to cancer.  Having said that, I still don't think that Mancini will be in high demand at the deadline.  I believe that we will hold onto him, at least through the rest of 2021.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I'm not sure that the difference between $8.2 and $10 mil changes my argument.  And, Mancini's Arb 2 situation is unique.  He would have made more than Villar this year if he hadn't missed 2020 due to cancer.  Having said that, I still don't think that Mancini will be in high demand at the deadline.  I believe that we will hold onto him, at least through the rest of 2021.

I agree Mancini’s situation is different from Villar’s due to missing the year.  I expect if I looked long and hard I could find a couple of players who missed all or most of their Arb 1 season, signed for little or no raise for Arb 2, and then had a fairly healthy Arb 2 season.    Probably mostly pitchers coming off TJ surgery.   Maybe I’ll look later.  

That said, I still think Trey lands in the $8 mm range.

 

 

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree Mancini’s situation is different from Villar’s due to missing the year.  I expect if I looked long and hard I could find a couple of players who missed all or most of their Arb 1 season, signed for little or no raise for Arb 2, and then had a fairly healthy Arb 2 season.    Probably mostly pitchers coming off TJ surgery.   Maybe I’ll look later.  

That said, I still think Trey lands in the $8 mm range.

 

 

Its not the 8M that will get Mancini traded (if he is traded).  Its his FA after 2022.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Its not the 8M that will get Mancini traded (if he is traded).  Its his FA after 2022.

Agree.   We’re not going to contend next year, so we should get as much future value as we can.  

[Bmorebirds24]

11 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

You do realize that AM help bring a core of players that had this team competing and in the playoffs right? 
you are saying that you aren’t team Elias and it’s because of the last two drafts but I still want to know where you get your information on these players to say that Elias doesn’t know what he’s doing? This team when from a bottom 5 farm system to a top 5 farm system under Elias. If he’s been that bad and the guys he’s taking aren’t any good how does the rankings change so much?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

Lawlar was drafted by the D'back's.

Thanks WC, my bad. Regardless Lawlar was the pick. Or at least House…

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

6 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

You do realize that AM help bring a core of players that had this team competing and in the playoffs right? 
you are saying that you aren’t team Elias and it’s because of the last two drafts but I still want to know where you get your information on these players to say that Elias doesn’t know what he’s doing? This team when from a bottom 5 farm system to a top 5 farm system under Elias. If he’s been that bad and the guys he’s taking aren’t any good how does the rankings change so much?

We are top 5? Hilarious. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945855-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2021-mlb-draft

[Roll Tide]

18 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I know when you are trying to close the gap in the AL East, you don’t take a RF (Kerstad) over a LH pitcher (Lacy) and another corner OFer (he’s not a CFer) over a stud SS (Lawlar who the BoSox quickly gobbled up) AND are scared to take a pitcher in the first round…. that’s a pretty poor plan to compete. But people will makes excuses for Elias just like they did DD, AM, joe jordan, etc. A culture of losing will do that. 

I have not been a fan of the draft strategy under Elias outside of Rutschman. And you or I could’ve drafted him!

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

We are top 5? Hilarious. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945855-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2021-mlb-draft

they have us at #10! The problem is the Jays and Rays are #3 and #1