FCL happenings

[Aglets]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but I guess it also depends on you define premium prospect.  I don’t think we have many of those.

I would just use the top 10 on Tony's list for short-hand.   Totally fair to argue that someone like Rom isn't a "premium" guy though.

[glenn__davis]

39 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Are there any premium O's prospects that you believe are at the appropriate level?

I don't think there can be much debate that the Orioles have, under Elias, been on the conservative end of player placement.

Now of course we can argue whether or not that is a good idea, and I am certain that they have their reasons for operating this way, but compared to the rest of the league I don't think there's much doubt that they take a more conservative approach.

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't think there can be much debate that the Orioles have, under Elias, been on the conservative end of player placement.

Now of course we can argue whether or not that is a good idea, and I am certain that they have their reasons for operating this way, but compared to the rest of the league I don't think there's much doubt that they take a more conservative approach.

100% correct.  Elias has been upfront with his strategy and approach to player development since he got here.  He wants every prospect to (basically) compete and earn a promotion at every rung of the ladder.

He has executed that strategy consistently for a couple years now.  And people still seem surprised or outraged or at least mad about it.  We haven't seen any dividends at the major league level yet from this (although the minors are certainly improved) but I suspect we will starting in 2022.

[Sports Guy]

I think Gunnar being at Aberdeen is appropriate. Hall was fine at Bowie at the time of his injury.  
 

Adley should be in Baltimore(at least he is at the appropriate MiL level even if it took way too long to get him there).  GRod should be in AAA or Baltimore.  Cowser should be in Aberdeen.  Westburg should be in Bowie.  
 

To me, those are the only premium guys we have, at least until Kjerstad gets out there.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

100% correct.  Elias has been upfront with his strategy and approach to player development since he got here.  He wants every prospect to (basically) compete and earn a promotion at every rung of the ladder.

He has executed that strategy consistently for a couple years now.  And people still seem surprised or outraged or at least mad about it.  We haven't seen any dividends at the major league level yet from this (although the minors are certainly improved) but I suspect we will starting in 2022.

So because he has been consistent on his strategy, we should just go along with it and say it’s a great strategy because the great Elias says so?

And NO ONE is surprised by the strategy or what they are doing, so using that word is just wrong.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So because he has been consistent on his strategy, we should just go along with it and say it’s a great strategy because the great Elias says so?

And NO ONE is surprised by the strategy or what they are doing, so using that word is just wrong.

I don't think this is true for you specifically (maybe it is?), but I think that our terrible major league team might bias some opinions on player development. 

If we won like the Dodgers, I think we'd be more comfortable, and maybe comforted, by letting our guys really prove their abilities at every stage. By the time they forced their way into our lineup, we'd feel better knowing they're actually prepared. 

This all stinks to wait for during a rebuild, but I sure wish we had this approach with Gausman and Cabrera way back when. 

[Ruzious]

6 minutes ago, Aglets said:

100% correct.  Elias has been upfront with his strategy and approach to player development since he got here.  He wants every prospect to (basically) compete and earn a promotion at every rung of the ladder.

He has executed that strategy consistently for a couple years now.  And people still seem surprised or outraged or at least mad about it.  We haven't seen any dividends at the major league level yet from this (although the minors are certainly improved) but I suspect we will starting in 2022.

But how long does one have to prove himself at each rung?  I think Adley has proven pretty much all season that he's better than all of the catchers at Baltimore.  And Grayson's earned a promotion a long time ago - still in AA where he's long been a man among boys.  Seems like an absurd situation, tbh.   

[glenn__davis]

10 minutes ago, Aglets said:

100% correct.  Elias has been upfront with his strategy and approach to player development since he got here.  He wants every prospect to (basically) compete and earn a promotion at every rung of the ladder.

He has executed that strategy consistently for a couple years now.  And people still seem surprised or outraged or at least mad about it.  We haven't seen any dividends at the major league level yet from this (although the minors are certainly improved) but I suspect we will starting in 2022.

Yeah - I don't think "surprised" or even "outraged" is the right word.  Maybe "annoyed" or "frustrated"?

Semantics at the end of the day I suppose.

Long term it's a question that I don't think will ever be answered.  I do think Elias knows what he's doing and will ultimately build a competitive team here.  We'll never know if he needed to take quite so long to get there.  There's a line somewhere between being diligent/patient and dragging your feet, and we probably all have a different idea of where that line is in this instance.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Ruzious said:

But how long does one have to prove himself at each rung?  I think Adley has proven pretty much all season that he's better than all of the catchers at Baltimore.  And Grayson's earned a promotion a long time ago - still in AA where he's long been a man among boys.  Seems like an absurd situation, tbh.   

That's why you use vague language.  That way it means whatever you need it to mean in the moment.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think this is true for you specifically (maybe it is?), but I think that our terrible major league team might bias some opinions on player development. 

If we won like the Dodgers, I think we'd be more comfortable, and maybe comforted, by letting our guys really prove their abilities at every stage. By the time they forced their way into our lineup, we'd feel better knowing they're actually prepared. 

This all stinks to wait for during a rebuild, but I sure wish we had this approach with Gausman and Cabrera way back when. 

There are always players you should take it slower with. 

Elias seems to have a hard fast rule for everyone and that’s wrong.  Certain guys just don’t belong where they are.

You treat each player differently.  You can have a general rule and that’s fine.  We aren’t sitting here debating the merits of where Lamar Sparks is playing.  We are talking about the best of the best in our system.  This is a discussion for 4-8 guys.  That’s it.

You don’t have the same rule of thumb for Adley Rutschman as you do for 98% of your system.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Gunnar being at Aberdeen is appropriate. Hall was fine at Bowie at the time of his injury.  
 

Adley should be in Baltimore(at least he is at the appropriate MiL level even if it took way too long to get him there).  GRod should be in AAA or Baltimore.  Cowser should be in Aberdeen.  Westburg should be in Bowie.  
 

To me, those are the only premium guys we have, at least until Kjerstad gets out there.

Also, we don’t know if he’s a premium prospect yet but I think Mundy should be moved as well and that he should have been moved a while back.

 

[glenn__davis]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's why you use vague language.  That way it means whatever you need it to mean in the moment.

 

Matt Blood said on a recent podcast that promotions are very data driven.  I believe that the wording he used was that it was "almost an algorithm".  So, at least publicly, the team does have very specific, data-driven things that they're looking for prior to a promotion.  Of course we don't know how true that is and how much other factors play into that.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Matt Blood said on a recent podcast that promotions are very data driven.  I believe that the wording he used was that it was "almost an algorithm".  So, at least publicly, the team does have very specific, data-driven things that they're looking for prior to a promotion.  Of course we don't know how true that is and how much other factors play into that.

And we have no idea what the data is. It’s a bs, placate to your audience type answer.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Matt Blood said on a recent podcast that promotions are very data driven.  I believe that the wording he used was that it was "almost an algorithm".  So, at least publicly, the team does have very specific, data-driven things that they're looking for prior to a promotion.  Of course we don't know how true that is and how much other factors play into that.

So when they promoted Grenier when it looked like he didn't deserve it the computer told them to do it?

I'm with SG, it's flimflam.

[Aglets]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So because he has even been consistent on his strategy, we should just go along with it and say it’s a great strategy because the great Elias says so?

And NO ONE is surprised by the strategy or what they are doing, so using that word is just wrong.

I think there is more evidence that his approach is working vs that it isn't working.  I personally am not that bothered by a team on pace for 54 wins vs a team that might be competing for 68 or whatever.  Moreover, I can acknowledge that it is actually BETTER for the team to lose more at this time.  I was a diehard fan for the 2005-2011 years (and still count myself in that number today) and I think what we are doing now makes far more sense.    

I personally have NEVER been more excited or confident about the long-term outlook of the team since I was a little kid.   It's been a long wait, yes, but Elias was always upfront with it as a long-term play.  You know what was even longer?   1998-2012.

We are closer to the end of the tunnel now than we were at the beginning.  I'm really happy about that.  I expect the de facto tanking to be over starting next year, and I expect them to be "really trying" starting no later than 2023.   And then I expect Elias to make good on his word that we will be perennial contenders because of this talent pipeline that he has spent YEARS building.   He has been truthful with everything else so far, so yes I trust him for now on that too.  And that matters, and that makes me very excited as a fan.

So in short, that is why I think it makes little sense to complain about Elias doing exactly what he has promised.  Being more aggressive right now with certain prospects will be a net NEGATIVE for the team at this time, not a positive.  And I think that would make me kind of a poor fan if I put my own desires to see them "win more in the short term" if it hurts the team in 2022-24 and beyond.  There is no reasonable scenario you could convince me that the O's would be a competing for a playoff spot this year.  Given that fact, what we are doing now makes absolutely perfect sense.   I agree with you that GRod and Westburg are ready to be promoted.