Passan: Mullins, Mancini central to Orioles plans - will need overpay to pry

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He would have to have a subpar 2022 to only get 1/8.

Agree.   Kyle Schwarber was terrible last year and still got 1/$10 mm even after being nontendered.   (And man is he on fire for the Nats right now.)

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs Goldstein with an AL trade overview piece entering July.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/state-of-the-org-american-league/

He guesses 1B/DH buyers as:

Red Sox - boy would that one be fun around here

Rays - ibid

Cleveland

 

[Just Regular]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agree.   Kyle Schwarber was terrible last year and still got 1/$10 mm even after being nontendered.   (And man is he on fire for the Nats right now.)

Schwarber has youth and that Dillon Tate-level pedigree vs. 2023 Mancini to help keep him above the CJ Cron fray.

I think I think that Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Kjerstad and Diaz are the Top 5 in 2023 1B/LF/RF/DH power rankings even if Stowers and everyone like him never become anything, and we do pick Henry Davis.

Last postseason, I liked the oft repeated quote Justin Turner or some Dodger oldster gave in the spirit of "we are like the bumper rails on the bowling alley for the kids, just keeping them out of the gutter", and do value 2022 Mancini relatively highly for us as that kind of guy the next 1.5 seasons while we see if Kjerstad recovers well.

 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Last postseason, I liked the oft repeated quote Justin Turner or some Dodger oldster gave in the spirit of "we are like the bumper rails on the bowling alley for the kids, just keeping them out of the gutter", and do value 2022 Mancini relatively highly for us as that kind of guy the next 1.5 seasons while we see if Kjerstad recovers well.

 

I’d say we’ve been in the gutter for the better part of four years.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yes.   To elaborate dWAR is the sum of Rfield (also called Rdrs) plus Rpos, then divided by a factor of runs/win that is generally right around 10.   So for example, take Paul Goldschmidt 2019.  

Rfield = 0 (so he was an average 1B)

Rpos = -8 (showing 1B is an easy position)

dWAR = -1.0 (negative defensive value because he did an average job of playing an easy defensive position)

Well if that is correct, then being plus one on outs above average would make him a better than average first baseman correct? Or is that comparing apples and oranges? Or are they two different stats that agree that Mancini is average or better at first?

[osravensfan78]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

Fangraphs Goldstein with an AL trade overview piece entering July.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/state-of-the-org-american-league/

He guesses 1B/DH buyers as:

Red Sox - boy would that one be fun around here

Rays - ibid

Cleveland

 

I think Cleveland has some interesting prospects they could send for Mancini. I wanted to put together a package that I thought could work, but I had trouble seeing them letting go of any of their top 5 (don’t see them wanting Naylor back with Adley). Tyler Freeman would be my dream centerpiece. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Well if that is correct, then being plus one on outs above average would make him a better than average first baseman correct? Or is that comparing apples and oranges? Or are they two different stats that agree that Mancini is average or better at first?

They are different.   But Rfield (same as Rdrs) has Trey at -3.   So he’s not above average by that measure.   The other stat published by BB-ref, Rtot, has Trey at -6.    So, you don’t have a consensus from the advanced stats.   OAA and UZR are slightly in the plus column, Rdrs and Rtot are more strongly in the negative column.   That leaves everyone either going with the advanced stat they generally prefer, or choosing the ones that support their own eye test opinion.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are different.   But Rfield (same as Rdrs) has Trey at -3.   So he’s not above average by that measure.   The other stat published by BB-ref, Rtot, has Trey at -6.    So, you don’t have a consensus from the advanced stats.   OAA and UZR are slightly in the plus column, Rdrs and Rtot are more strongly in the negative column.   That leaves everyone either going with the advanced stat they generally prefer, or choosing the ones that support their own eye test opinion.   

That’s why I think you basically look at all of them together and you basically end up with an average defender.

Teams certainly aren’t going to look at him and say, nope, his defense blows at first, we can’t go after him.

[HowAboutThat]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are different.   But Rfield (same as Rdrs) has Trey at -3.   So he’s not above average by that measure.   The other stat published by BB-ref, Rtot, has Trey at -6.    So, you don’t have a consensus from the advanced stats.   OAA and UZR are slightly in the plus column, Rdrs and Rtot are more strongly in the negative column.   That leaves everyone either going with the advanced stat they generally prefer, or choosing the ones that support their own eye test opinion.   

Ok.I don’t think he’s all that outstanding, but if he is about average, I can live with it. “About average” is better than 90% of the guys on this team anyway.I don’t think he’s all that outstanding, but if he is about average, I can live with it. “About average” is better than 90% of the guys on this team anyway.

[orioles22]

Nothing more discouraging to me as an Orioles fan of 50-plus years that we won't keep our best players. I hope we extend them both and try to fill in other spots and find a starting rotation.

[eddie83]

8 hours ago, orioles22 said:

Nothing more discouraging to me as an Orioles fan of 50-plus years that we won't keep our best players. I hope we extend them both and try to fill in other spots and find a starting rotation.

Will Mancini still be a good player by the time they are ready to win?  

That is the question. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Will Mancini still be a good player by the time they are ready to win?  

That is the question. 

It’s definitely a question worth asking. If I had to guess, Mancini will be a 750-820 OPS guy in 3-5 years.  He will still show 25ish homer power and his defense should stay relatively ok at first but it will be questionable whether or not he is worth 8+ million a year.  He should be for the next 2-3 years but after that, it’s a big crapshoot imo.

And as sad as it is to say this, I think you have to be wary about a contract extension because you never know if the cancer will come back.  I’m guessing insurance isn’t happening for him either although I don’t know about that for sure.

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s definitely a question worth asking. If I had to guess, Mancini will be a 750-820 OPS guy in 3-5 years.  He will still show 25ish homer power and his defense should stay relatively ok at first but it will be questionable whether or not he is worth 8+ million a year.  He should be for the next 2-3 years but after that, it’s a big crapshoot imo.

And as sad as it is to say this, I think you have to be wary about a contract extension because you never know if the cancer will come back.  I’m guessing insurance isn’t happening for him either although I don’t know about that for sure.

If you think he will be good for a couple of years you can still try and extend him. No law against trading him in 2023 if the circumstances fit. They have been very cheap lately.  Would hope attendance is better next year. Don’t think it can get much worse.  Could try and negotiate a 3 year deal after this year that buys out his last arbitration year. Maybe an option for a 4th year. He won’t break the bank. 
 

I’m pretty much fine with whatever they do with him as long as it’s not a lottery ticket type of a trade. I think you need legit upside players headlining a deal, not a long shot.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If you think he will be good for a couple of years you can still try and extend him. No law against trading him in 2023 if the circumstances fit. They have been very cheap lately.  Would hope attendance is better next year. Don’t think it can get much worse.  Could try and negotiate a 3 year deal after this year that buys out his last arbitration year. Maybe an option for a 4th year. He won’t break the bank. 
 

I’m pretty much fine with whatever they do with him as long as it’s not a lottery ticket type of a trade. I think you need legit upside players headlining a deal, not a long shot.  

I would be more for an extension if we didn’t have several guys to play first and DH.  I just don’t see him as a great long term fit.

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be more for an extension if we didn’t have several guys to play first and DH.  I just don’t see him as a great long term fit.

I was really hoping in a year like this Mountcastle would have had a long leash in the OF. He looked so poor early on and Mullins played so well it looks like they aren’t going to push him out there. It’s not that I thought he would make it, just wanted to see him get a chance. So it looks like he is 1st basemen of future.  
 

Short term question is Santander and Diaz and how do they fit in 22/23. A good manager can find at bats for 6 guys in 5 spots. Plus you always have injuries. Stewart doesn’t look to be a long term piece. He is ok when he is cheap like now.  

Normally I think keeping a rather expensive DH on a bad team makes little sense. Trey is a bit of a different case. Plus it’s not like he is a DH only like a Cruz at this point. If you try to sign him you do it on your terms. I think for next couple of years there is plenty of room for at bats. Hopefully Kjerstad will get healthy and complicate things. If Trey plays well they you can always move him or someone else. The key is signing someone who keeps producing.