What constitutes a good draft? My study of 1998-2005

[GuidoSarducci]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You see surprises and busts in the NFL and NBA drafts as well.

With baseball its more egregious.  If you get picked in the first round in the NFL / NBA, you're effectively guaranteed to make them team and get at least  decent chunk of playing time.   Yeah you do have players like Kwame Brown who just fail to live up to expectations  - but even he actually was able find a team after the Wizards gave up on him.

But in the MLB the number of top ten picks who don't even make it to the majors or get very little playing time is surprising.   Injuries happen of course, but then you have the Mark Appels and Matt Hobgood who are just terrible.

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

With baseball its more egregious.  If you get picked in the first round in the NFL / NBA, you're effectively guaranteed to make them team and get at least  decent chunk of playing time.   Yeah you do have players like Kwame Brown who just fail to live up to expectations  - but even he actually was able find a team after the Wizards gave up on him.

But in the MLB the number of top ten picks who don't even make it to the majors or get very little playing time is surprising.   Injuries happen of course, but then you have the Mark Appels and Matt Hobgood who are just terrible.

Yes, you are guaranteed to make the team but the bust rate in R1 for those sports is pretty similar.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 8/13/2021 at 9:49 PM, Pickles said:

Basically, it seems to me, half the board is going to be disappointed if he isn't a HOFer.  That's setting yourself up to be disappointed.  If he is Wieters with better plate discipline, and has a knack for not getting injured in his peak controllable years, I'll be thrilled.  

People need to understand that the median 1/1 pick isn't anything close to a Hall of Famer.  It's Ben McDonald or Bob Horner. Any Hall of Famer you draft at any position is a very unusual case.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but what his list does show is that tanking (especially for several years) is stupid, at least in baseball.  
 

If you don’t get the first pick or 2, there is very little difference the rest of the draft.(and a high pick is basically your only advantage to tanking)

 

On 8/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, Frobby said:

2.  Needless to say, draft order affects how well a team drafts, on average.

I'd like to see the numbers on value based on draft slot.  If you have the #1 overall what advantage are you expected to have over the team that drafts #30?  Or #10?  Sorry if someone has already posted, I haven't read the entire thread.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I'd like to see the numbers on value based on draft slot.  If you have the #1 overall what advantage are you expected to have over the team that drafts #30?  Or #10?  Sorry if someone has already posted, I haven't read the entire thread.

Well, it’s pretty huge. Our poster Guido Sarducci posted a chart in this thread showing 1 - 30 over the decade of the 90’s a page or two back.  It has a fluky result at 20 because Mussina, Sabathia and Torii Hunter are all there.    But over a larger sample that stuff smooths out more.

[Frobby]

Total WAR by pick, over the whole history of the draft:

1.  1097.8

2.  724.6

3.  622.4

4.  590.3

5.  417.5

6.  597.6

7.  423.1

8. 297.2

9. 291.0

10. 495.5

11. 283.3

12. 314.4

13. 365.4

14. 305.4.

15.  284.6

16.  305.6

17.  332.2

18. 177.2

19.  387.8

20.  405.0

21.  163.8

22. 423.7

23. 189.9

24.  138.8

25.  237.5

26.  121.9

27.  122.8

28.  168.5

29.  270.2

30. 335.6

Obviously there’s a lot of random variation in there even after 55 years.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

That's going to happen when you have extreme outliers putting up hugely disproportionate WAR numbers.

For instance the fifth pick has produced 417.5 WAR and the sixth pick 597.6.  162.7 of that difference is one player.

[DrungoHazewood]

You obviously have to do some kind of curve fitting to account for the noise in the signal.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Total WAR by pick, over the whole history of the draft:

1.  1097.8

2.  724.6

3.  622.4

4.  590.3

5.  417.5

6.  597.6

7.  423.1

8. 297.2

9. 291.0

10. 495.5

11. 283.3

12. 314.4

13. 365.4

14. 305.4.

15.  284.6

16.  305.6

17.  332.2

18. 177.2

19.  387.8

20.  405.0

21.  163.8

22. 423.7

23. 189.9

24.  138.8

25.  237.5

26.  121.9

27.  122.8

28.  168.5

29.  270.2

30. 335.6

Obviously there’s a lot of random variation in there even after 55 years.  
 

Takeaway here is that the median #1 overall is about 20 rWAR for their career, and a #25 pick is 1/5th of that.  Anyone who thinks your 2nd round pick should have a solid career in the majors or the GM had failed doesn't understand how any of this works.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Takeaway here is that the median #1 overall is about 20 rWAR for their career, and a #25 pick is 1/5th of that.  Anyone who thinks your 2nd round pick should have a solid career in the majors or the GM had failed doesn't understand how any of this works.

It's obvious.  If any player selected after you pick has the superior career the GM screwed up by not picking that player.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's obvious.  If any player selected after you pick has the superior career the GM screwed up by not picking that player.

I don't know why all Major League teams only hire stupid people to run their organizations.  You'd think with $billions on the line they'd take this more seriously.

[HowAboutThat]

I have always described draft choices as coming with “expectations.” After all, more is expected of a first round pick than a fourth round pick, and so on. Maybe the word expectation should be thrown out and replaced with something like “hope“

Because God knows we’ve had a whole lot of draft choices that did not meet expectations

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I have always described draft choices as coming with “expectations.” After all, more is expected of a first round pick than a fourth round pick, and so on. Maybe the word expectation should be thrown out and replaced with something like “hope“

Because God knows we’ve had a whole lot of draft choices that did not meet expectations

Most do not.   A small number vastly exceed them.   

[owknows]

In  terms of value per slot, it looks like it pays to pick on intervals of 10.

 

(10th, 20th, 30th)

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most do not.   A small number vastly exceed them.   

Helps to have reasonable expectations in the first place.

Anyone expecting a Chance Sisco or DJ Stewart to have a superior MLB career is the one at fault.