Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

If you mean by losing, trading Mancini and/or Santander then they will get something back for them probably that they need.

I don't expect the O's to spend big on an one FA but if they can add a decent infielder and a reliever or two that will help.   Mike  will be trying to figure out the best way to get a starter whether that is FA, trade or whatever.

By losing I meant, that those 2 are slated to make around 12M, give or take, between the 2 of them. 
 

They may not be able to keep those guys AND spend FA money.  

[sportsfan8703]

Obviously homers do not equal wins but we could trot out a team next year where  we have 20+ HR potential at pretty much each position. 

2021 Stats:

DH - Mancini 21

1B - Mountcastle 30

C - AR(After 6/1 would be tough)

2B - Urias 7 (Full season of ABs?)

3B - ? (Mateo full season of ABs?)
 

SS - ?(Galvis back?) (13 w/injury)

LF - Hays 21

RF - Santander 17

CF - Mullins 29

But then we have to like do that little pitching thing every game.   

 

[spiritof66]

15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We should trade Mullins this offseason. Build Hays up as a CF. Trade him at the deadline. Count our future prospects gained, then see what we have in McKenna and Watson. Both with big time MILB numbers this year. 

Do you think McKenna is likely to be as productive a player as either Mullins or Hays? I can't imagine that he will, but I sure could be wrong.

Let's say the Orioles do what you're recommending. When do you think the Orioles would be likely to field their first 500-ish team?

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Philip said:

I wish we could put the myth of “big time MiLB numbers” to bed. It doesn’t mean nothing, but it doesn’t mean much. I love McKenna. He can run and he can glove like few, but he hits as well as I do, and his MiLB numbers mean much less than his MLB numbers. He’s David Lough with greater speed and less bat.

Put in appropriate context minor league numbers are very meaningful.  If viewed through an appropriate lens a player who really can hit in the minors will almost always hit given enough time in the majors.  But people will often take small samples or extreme contexts and use that of examples why minor league numbers are meaningless.

A problem with McKenna's is that he's been bipolar.  His OPSes as a pro at each stop have always been .712 or lower or over 1.000.  Just enough crushing the ball to give you a little hope, but his overall mark is .755.  That tells me he won't hit enough to be a MLB regular, but maybe the long stretches of poor-to-mediocre have some explanation like injury.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Do you think McKenna is likely to be as productive a player as either Mullins or Hays? I can't imagine that he will, but I sure could be wrong.

Let's say the Orioles do what you're recommending. When do you think the Orioles would be likely to field their first 500-ish team?

McKenna may stay healthier than Hays.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Obviously homers do not equal wins but we could trot out a team next year where  we have 20+ HR potential at pretty much each position. 

2021 Stats:

DH - Mancini 21

1B - Mountcastle 30

C - AR(After 6/1 would be tough)

2B - Urias 7 (Full season of ABs?)

3B - ? (Mateo full season of ABs?)
 

SS - ?(Galvis back?) (13 w/injury)

LF - Hays 21

RF - Santander 17

CF - Mullins 29

But then we have to like do that little pitching thing every game.   

 

This year the Orioles are abysmal and have 14 homers from their catchers, 28 at first, 9 at second, 13 at third, 16 at short, 26 in LF, 28 in CF, 23 in RF and 26 at DH.  They're going to hit about 200 homers as a team.  This is the 68th modern Orioles season, and the 2021 Orioles will probably finish with the 13th-best HR total in team history.  The 2018 Orioles are 16th, soon to be 17th, and they were the worst O's team since '54.  

If you're my age you take what you used to think the standard was for homers for a player or a team and add about 50%, and that's probably still inadequate.

[Philip]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

This year the Orioles are abysmal and have 14 homers from their catchers, 28 at first, 9 at second, 13 at third, 16 at short, 26 in LF, 28 in CF, 23 in RF and 26 at DH.  They're going to hit about 200 homers as a team.  This is the 68th modern Orioles season, and the 2021 Orioles will probably finish with the 13th-best HR total in team history.  The 2018 Orioles are 16th, soon to be 17th, and they were the worst O's team since '54.  

If you're my age you take what you used to think the standard was for homers for a player or a team and add about 50%, and that's probably still inadequate.

Mark Trumbo hit 47 home runs and was worth 2.7 WAR. Home runs ain’t what they use ta be

[connja]

If McKenna still on this team is 2023, it’s a disaster.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mark Trumbo hit 47 home runs and was worth 2.7 WAR. Home runs ain’t what they use ta be

2.1 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR, but who’s counting?  Still, that doesn’t mean homers aren’t valuable.   It just means that Trumbo’s poor defense detracted from that value.   

There’s one area in which WAR doesn’t reflect real baseball.   WAR proceeds from the premise that all home runs have an equal value since the batter doesn’t control who’s on base, how many outs there are or the score of the game.   But when the game is a actually played, a solo homer in a 10-1 game has a lot less value than a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th down by three runs.   Looking back at Trumbo in 2016, he was very good in high leverage situations, outstanding in medium leverage, and not that good in low leverage situations.   So he hit homers (and other hits) pretty frequently when it actually mattered.   In my view, 2.1-2.2 WAR understates the actual value he had to that 2016 season.

[Philip]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2.1 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR, but who’s counting?  Still, that doesn’t mean homers aren’t valuable.   It just means that Trumbo’s poor defense detracted from that value.   

There’s one area in which WAR doesn’t reflect real baseball.   WAR proceeds from the premise that all home runs have an equal value since the batter doesn’t control who’s on base, how many outs there are or the score of the game.   But when the game is a actually played, a solo homer in a 10-1 game has a lot less value than a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th down by three runs.   Looking back at Trumbo in 2016, he was very good in high leverage situations, outstanding in medium leverage, and not that good in low leverage situations.   So he hit homers (and other hits) pretty frequently when it actually mattered.   In my view, 2.1-2.2 WAR understates the actual value he had to that 2016 season.

Of course I don’t disagree with anything you said, except It is apparent to anybody who watches him wandering around the outfield that his defense was so bad that it did indeed cancel out his offense.
Whenever I hear the phrase, “and he’ll back up and play it on a hop.” (Which is not an error, mind you) I always think of Mark Trumbo. Because that’s what he did; he would back up and play it on a hop, unless he rushed in and let it go over his head, or he rushed sideways when the ball was going that away, or he rushed back when the ball is going this way.

 

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, connja said:

If McKenna still on this team is 2023, it’s a disaster.

It would probably mean he improved.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It would probably mean he improved.

I heard that never happens.  Just ask Cedric Mullins.  

[Pickles]

Two top 50.  Or go away.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

2.1 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR, but who’s counting?  Still, that doesn’t mean homers aren’t valuable.   It just means that Trumbo’s poor defense detracted from that value.   

There’s one area in which WAR doesn’t reflect real baseball.   WAR proceeds from the premise that all home runs have an equal value since the batter doesn’t control who’s on base, how many outs there are or the score of the game.   But when the game is a actually played, a solo homer in a 10-1 game has a lot less value than a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th down by three runs.   Looking back at Trumbo in 2016, he was very good in high leverage situations, outstanding in medium leverage, and not that good in low leverage situations.   So he hit homers (and other hits) pretty frequently when it actually mattered.   In my view, 2.1-2.2 WAR understates the actual value he had to that 2016 season.

If you want to give credit for value by leverage and situation then use WPA.  But actually... he was just +1.33 in WPA in 2016, with a Clutch rating of -0.25.  

WAR doesn't reflect "real" baseball if you believe that players have a persistent ability to hit better in some situations than others, and should get credit for that.  As we've discussed many times, there is a small element of clutch performance that appears to be tied to ability, but most of any player's differences in performances across varying situations is just randomness.  Giving full value to someone for their clutchiness is like rewarding someone for their ability to flip a coin and get four heads in a row.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

Of course I don’t disagree with anything you said, except It is apparent to anybody who watches him wandering around the outfield that his defense was so bad that it did indeed cancel out his offense.
Whenever I hear the phrase, “and he’ll back up and play it on a hop.” (Which is not an error, mind you) I always think of Mark Trumbo. Because that’s what he did; he would back up and play it on a hop, unless he rushed in and let it go over his head, or he rushed sideways when the ball was going that away, or he rushed back when the ball is going this way.

 

Well, his defense didn’t cancel out his offense.  His defense made his offense less valuable but he was still a 2+ WAR player.  You could do better of course but you could also easily do worse.  He was a net positive for the Os that year despite his defense.