The O’s draft philosophy and economic principles

[Frobby]

I was thinking today about the Orioles’ hitter heavy drafts, and how the team’s developmental and evaluative strengths might dictate their strategy in accordance with economic principles.   

In brief, all of us can do many things.   But we do some things better than others.   So, we tend to earn our livings doing the things we are good at, and we pay other people to do the things we’re not so good at, or which would take more time than we want to divert from our main occupation.    I could do my own taxes, but they’re pretty complicated, so I pay an accountant to spend 3 hours doing them because it would take me 10 hours to do, and I’m better off spending that 10 hours providing legal services to my clients and earning more money in those 10 hours than it costs me to pay the accountant to do my taxes.   

I think the O’s believe that they are very good at (1) identifying those hitters available to be drafted/signed who can be developed into good major leaguers, and (2) developing those hitters to make them successful.    And I think they believe that (1) it’s harder to identify and develop successful pitchers, and (2) even if you do everything right, many pitchers get derailed by injury.   So therefore, their strategy is to focus on drafting, signing and developing hitters, and trade some of them to acquire much of the pitching they need when those pitchers are further up the developmental curve.   

It’s not a bad philosophy, and I think Adam Smith would approve of the strategy.   We all need to eat, but we don’t all grow our own food.   

I do think the O’s are taking this thinking to a pretty extreme level, though.  I’ll be interested to see if they begin shifting gears next year in the draft, and how they do at acquiring pitchers from other organizations.   

[vab]

I think it's the only way to go for a small to mid market team. All you have to do is look at the endless list of failed pitching prospects over the last 20 years and then look at the hitters that have been developed in the system. Not that there's been enough hitters developed but they've been a lot more successful with that than the pitching. I think we will see more pitchers drafted and drafted higher once the lineup is more solidified. 

[Sports Guy]

I have no issues with their draft strategy outside of I think they should be grabbing more overslots, especially in this last draft, and I think they need to do more of BPA but again, we are only talking about a few picks there.

BUT, I have zero issues with loading up on bats.  

The question is can they turn the depth in bats into pitching from other teams.  

Again, we have zero idea if Elias is a good major league GM.  He has done very little to show he can be that guy so far, not that he has been allowed much opportunity to do it.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I have no issues with their draft strategy outside of I think they should be grabbing more overslots, especially in this last draft, and I think they need to do more of BPA but again, we are only talking about a few picks there.

BUT, I have zero issues with loading up on bats.  

The question is can they turn the depth in bats into pitching from other teams.  

Again, we have zero idea if Elias is a good major league GM.  He has done very little to show he can be that guy so far, not that he has been allowed much opportunity to do it.

I agree, we need to see if he's a good major league GM.  IMO, these next two years will be where the rubber meets the road in that regard:  can he sign some good FA talent?  Can he pull the trigger on some impactful trades?

In regards to the OP and your post, I don't have a huge issue with them loading up on bats, although I have said I would have liked to have seen more arms drafted.  However, I'm assuming they have a plan in place to acquire them.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree, we need to see if he's a good major league GM.  IMO, these next two years will be where the rubber meets the road in that regard:  can he sign some good FA talent?  Can he pull the trigger on some impactful trades?

In regards to the OP and your post, I don't have a huge issue with them loading up on bats, although I have said I would have liked to have seen more arms drafted.  However, I'm assuming they have a plan in place to acquire them.

From what I heard, I don't think they will be spending much on FAs and not likely taking on big contracts in trades.  

I think we need to hope to find another Chen or someone like that.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 And I think they believe that (1) it’s harder to identify and develop successful pitchers, and (2) even if you do everything right, many pitchers get derailed by injury.  

I think this is the key. Doesn't really reflect on the strengths/weaknesses of the organization as much as the inherent risk of pitchers. If you have a position player with about the same upside but much less risk, draft the position player, then buy or trade for pitching when the time comes. So it is also a "best player available" rather "fill holes" drafting strategy. 

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

From what I heard, I don't think they will be spending much on FAs and not likely taking on big contracts in trades.  

I think we need to hope to find another Chen or someone like that.

How much is "much?"

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How much is "much?"

Well who knows...but I am guessing even a Cobb type deal isn't happening.

[Can_of_corn]

Good post. I'm worried that instead of taxes and legal services we are looking at growing potatoes and building lambos.  Going to take a lot of spuds to pry a good one away.

 

[NCRaven]

I still think it's hard to determine exactly how much their strategy in recent drafts is due to the effects of COVID on the high school and college players and seasons and how much is a deliberate, long-term strategy that will continue post-COVID.  Any conclusions that we make now will be based on incomplete information.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well who knows...but I am guessing even a Cobb type deal isn't happening.

That'd be disappointing.  Kinda what I was hoping for.  Cobb level pitcher, Cobb level deal.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

That'd be disappointing.  Kinda what I was hoping for.  Cobb level pitcher, Cobb level deal.

But better than Cobb level results (for us).

[Just Regular]

A rising Cobb lifts all Birds.

Rational application of comparative advantage can create wealth, leisure, and the opportunity to poke around Orioles Hangout.

[EddeeEddee]

Great post, but it does beg the question: why are certain organizations like Cleveland and Tampa basically pitching factories?  Some must be luck, but I'd think -- being hardly knowledgeable in the area -- there has to be people at those organizations that are just better than everyone else at finding it and developing pitching.  

[Frobby]

Definitely not mostly luck.