Payroll expectation for 2022

[spiritof66]

I think the meaning of the numbers we post would be clearer, and we'd be more likely to be making apples-to-apples guesses, if deferrals, money owed to Davis and Cobb, etc. are excluded. That's what I'll do, anyway: I'm estimating the payroll of the 40-man roster as of opening day. 

Excluding those deferrals etc., I am estimating an opening day MLB payroll of about $40-43 million. Maybe another $3-5 million during the season if opportunity knocks, or if a Franco-like failure or injuries create a need so pressing that it will be embarrassing not to bring in some help. 

I hope the payroll is a lot higher, but don't see a reason why that will happen. Having the GM tell the remaining fans they will have to be more patient and that it's tough to compete in the AL East doesn't cost anything, except the loss of a few more potential ticket-buyers who won't wait any longer to see major league-level baseball at Camden Yards.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I think the meaning of the numbers we post would be clearer, and we'd be more likely to be making apples-to-apples guesses, if deferrals, money owed to Davis and Cobb, etc. are excluded. That's what I'll do, anyway: I'm estimating the payroll of the 40-man roster as of opening day. 

Excluding those deferrals etc., I am estimating an opening day MLB payroll of about $40-43 million. Maybe another $3-5 million during the season if opportunity knocks, or if a Franco-like failure or injuries create a need so pressing that it will be embarrassing not to bring in some help. 

I hope the payroll is a lot higher, but don't see a reason why that will happen. Having the GM tell the remaining fans they will have to be more patient and that it's tough to compete in the AL East doesn't cost anything, except the loss of a few more potential ticket-buyers who won't wait any longer to see major league-level baseball at Camden Yards.

I don’t know why we wouldn’t look at the whole picture?

Ownership will take all money owed into account.  That 18.5M is part of the payroll for 2022 and we should treat it as such.

[OriolesMagic83]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know why we wouldn’t look at the whole picture?

Ownership will take all money owed into account.  That 18.5M is part of the payroll for 2022 and we should treat it as such.

Maybe the O' are going to cut more fat out of the payroll.  The O's can't "afford" to pay Mancini or Santander.  Maybe they can be traded for the infamous PTBNL.  Is 18.5 Mill what the O's owe in deferred salary in 2022?  It would be one thing to be paying deferred salary to productive players, but paying deferred money to craptastic players like Davis, Trumbo, and Cobb is like double punishment. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Maybe the O' are going to cut more fat out of the payroll.  The O's can't "afford" to pay Mancini or Santander.  Maybe they can be traded for the infamous PTBNL.  Is 18.5 Mill what the O's owe in deferred salary in 2022?  It would be one thing to be paying deferred salary to productive players, but paying deferred money to craptastic players like Davis, Trumbo, and Cobb is like double punishment. 

Yea..it’s money owed to them and is part of the 2022 payroll.

When discussing what the payroll will be, everything is included because the team looks at those things too (as they should).

So when projecting out those figures, the 18.5M must be included in the total number.

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m counting total money spent..thought that was clear in that post when I talked about the other 18.5M?

Sorry, I have lost track. I am somewhat confused by the low options in the poll and Cobb being "off the books" when he is showing in Cots. Where are you getting $18.5M from? Cobb $10M, Trumbo/O'Day/Cashner $3.5M.  Or is Davis getting only $5M? I am not seeing good details on his restructuring but he was owed $23M for '22 plus $9M in '23-25. If they spread it all out evenly that would be $12.5 per. 

Pre-arb - $15M

Arb guys - $20M

Deferred comp/other teams - ???

Free agency - ???

Even with $18.5M for deferred comp, seems like we are looking at $53.5 minimum  so the first two options shouldn't even really be options unless I am missing something. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sorry, I have lost track. I am somewhat confused by the low options in the poll and Cobb being "off the books" when he is showing in Cots. Where are you getting $18.5M from? Cobb $10M, Trumbo/O'Day/Cashner $3.5M.  Or is Davis getting only $5M? I am not seeing good details on his restructuring but he was owed $23M for '22 plus $9M in '23-25. If they spread it all out evenly that would be $12.5 per. 

Pre-arb - $15M

Arb guys - $20M

Deferred comp/other teams - ???

Free agency - ???

Even with $18.5M for deferred comp, seems like we are looking at $53.5 minimum  so the first two options shouldn't even really be options unless I am missing something. 

To be honest, I didn’t see the 10M owed to Cobb, Trumbo, et al before I posted the poll.  
 

That being said, even at under 40M, it’s possible to do that.  I have them at around 35M with 6-7 spots left.  They could go very cheap and get in under 40 million but that should be 45 or less and would have been if I had seen the 10M Owed to the other guys.

Davis gets 17M a year and 6M deferred.  Of the 17M for 2022, it got split in half for 2022 and 2023 as part of him retiring.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

To be honest, I didn’t see the 10M owed to Cobb, Trumbo, et al before I posted the poll.  
 

That being said, even at under 40M, it’s possible to do that.  I have them at around 35M with 6-7 spots left.  They could go very cheap and get in under 40 million but that should be 45 or less and would have been if I had seen the 10M Owed to the other guys.

Davis gets 17M a year and 6M deferred.  Of the 17M for 2022, it got split in half for 2022 and 2023 as part of him retiring.

They would have to nontender/trade Means and Mancini. I suppose that is an option.

So Davis gets $8.5M this year and $10M for Cobb makes $18.5?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

To be honest, I didn’t see the 10M owed to Cobb, Trumbo, et al before I posted the poll.  
 

That being said, even at under 40M, it’s possible to do that.  I have them at around 35M with 6-7 spots left.  They could go very cheap and get in under 40 million but that should be 45 or less and would have been if I had seen the 10M Owed to the other guys.

Davis gets 17M a year and 6M deferred.  Of the 17M for 2022, it got split in half for 2022 and 2023 as part of him retiring.

Not that it’s a big deal, but Cot’s says the $17 mm is being paid over three years, not two.   And of course, we will be escrowing one year of his $6 mm/yr deferred compensation next year as well.  

[wildcard]

A lot depends on what Elias and ownership decide to do to fill holes.   They need a SP, SS, Closer and a Backup catcher.

SS - Henderson could be the SS of the future for 4 or 5 years beginning maybe in 2023.  So do the O's spend high or low on a 2022 one year contract.  Depends on how all these FA SS shake out.

SP - O's could go cheap or 3/60 or anywhere in between.

Closer - The Astros went 3/18 at the same point in their rebuild.  Elias probably is the only one that knows what he wants to spend for an established reliever.

BU catcher -  Probably 1 - 2m.

Does he trade Mancini and/or Santander?

Too many variables to know where the O's go with payroll.

 But I don't believe the possibility of a team sale has much to do with 2022 spending.   It will be under $100m payroll.   Adding talent could actually enhance the sales price if there is one.   But I think that would be years down the road.   Georgia will probably inherit the team at some point without tax consequences.  Any sale would take years to accomplish considering the outstanding litigation and MASN considerations.

[foxfield]

I will settle for the GM saying the games matter and they are focused on a better record.

[ChuckS]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A lot depends on what Elias and ownership decide to do to fill holes.   They need a SP, SS, Closer and a Backup catcher.

SS - Henderson could be the SS of the future for 4 or 5 years beginning maybe in 2023.  So do the O's spend high or low on a 2022 one year contract.  Depends on how all these FA SS shake out.

SP - O's could go cheap or 3/60 or anywhere in between.

Closer - The Astros went 3/18 at the same point in their rebuild.  Elias probably is the only one that knows what he wants to spend for an established reliever.

BU catcher -  Probably 1 - 2m.

Does he trade Mancini and/or Santander?

Too many variables to know where the O's go with payroll.

 But I don't believe the possibility of a team sale has much to do with 2022 spending.   It will be under $100m payroll.   Adding talent could actually enhance the sales price if there is one.   But I think that would be years down the road.   Georgia will probably inherit the team at some point without tax consequences.  Any sale would take years to accomplish considering the outstanding litigation and MASN considerations.

I wouldn't say we NEED a back up catcher or closer.  Those are relatively low on the list of priorities.  I think you try to develop as many high leverage relievers as you can, and one of them will eventually slot in as the closer if you aren't going with a committee.  That's not something a team in our position should be spending big money on. 

Wynns is fine as the backup IMO or Severino if he is tendered a contract. 

I would target two SP, a shortstop and a third baseman.  I'm not against spending a little money, but I would bet on more dumpster diving.  Things could be different in the 2022 offseason when this team is in better position to compete. 

[O's84]

Come on guys, we all know where they will be shopping:

 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not that it’s a big deal, but Cot’s says the $17 mm is being paid over three years, not two.   And of course, we will be escrowing one year of his $6 mm/yr deferred compensation next year as well.  

When was it ever decided that it was 3 years?  It was always reported 2 years.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

They would have to nontender/trade Means and Mancini. I suppose that is an option.

So Davis gets $8.5M this year and $10M for Cobb makes $18.5?

No..look, I’m not trying to be an ass here but I have answered all of these questions in various posts in the thread.  I’m just not sure where the confusion is?
 

My personal outlook discussed Mancini.  I’m not saying I’m right, I’m just saying that Mancini isn’t in my projections as guaranteed guys on the 26 man roster (at some point..don’t know when Adley and Grayson will be there but it will be quickly imo).  Santander is the same.

 

[owknows]

I'm betting the league institutes a payroll minmum (probably 80 million instead of the proposed 100 miliion), and the Orioles come in on the dot.