Payroll expectation for 2022

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When was it ever decided that it was 3 years?  It was always reported 2 years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-chris-davis-retires-20210812-b2ex4xdfcre2hiuz2zimv5rlxu-story.html%3foutputType=amp
 

I missed this.  Maybe 2 years were the first reports but it ended up being 3.  Thanks for pointing that out @Frobby
 

So, that drops him from 8.5M to about 5.7M.  So, overall payroll for the way I see it is in the 29-32M range for the 5 guys off the roster plus the other 18-20 players on it.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm betting the league institutes a payroll minmum (probably 80 million instead of the proposed 100 miliion), and the Orioles come in on the dot.

This is definitely a good point.  I’m guessing if/when they do this, it’s a tiered system.  Probably tell teams they need to do this by a certain year but that it needs to start going up now.

[maybenxtyr]

With all of the deferments I'd say payroll could be around 60 million.

The best use of that money would require Mancini to be traded. There's no reason to pay a DH 8-10/year on a limited payroll team.

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

This is definitely a good point.  I’m guessing if/when they do this, it’s a tiered system.  Probably tell teams they need to do this by a certain year but that it needs to start going up now.

Start at 60 in the first season and increase 10 per until it hits whatever floor gets approved...if any.

[ChuckS]

12 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm betting the league institutes a payroll minmum (probably 80 million instead of the proposed 100 miliion), and the Orioles come in on the dot.

If they instituted something like this, I would think they would give organizations more than one offseason to get to that number.  It would hurt the lower market teams competitively to be forced to increase their payroll by 30 million in a single offseason. 

You'll end up seeing a lot of overpaid mid-tier/lower-tier free agents get signed to bad contracts like you see in the NBA after the better players turn down our confederate money.  Who is the Ian Mahinme and Andrew Nicholson of this FA class? 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No..look, I’m not trying to be an ass here but I have answered all of these questions in various posts in the thread.  I’m just not sure where the confusion is?
 

My personal outlook discussed Mancini.  I’m not saying I’m right, I’m just saying that Mancini isn’t in my projections as guaranteed guys on the 26 man roster (at some point..don’t know when Adley and Grayson will be there but it will be quickly imo).  Santander is the same.

 

Lol, I'm not trying to be an ass either but your OP excluded deferments, then you said they are included. You also just went and changed the number for Davis after this post. Could you take four seconds and give me one number for deferments? Bonus points if you edit and update your original post.  Or maybe you aren't actually interested in a discussion?

[wildcard]

Deferred salary for 2022

5.7m Davis

2m Cobb

1.5m Trumbo

1m  O'Day

1m Cashner

11.2m Total

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lol, I'm not trying to be an ass either but your OP excluded deferments, then you said they are included. You also just went and changed the number for Davis after this post. Could you take four seconds and give me one number for deferments? Bonus points if you edit and update your original post.  Or maybe you aren't actually interested in a discussion?

Yes and then the very next post, CoC put the link to the 4 guys we owe money to…and then in my second post, I spoke about that money and the money owed to Davis.  
 

The number was the same foe the whole time until Frobby just pointed out that it’s 3 years and not 2.  I mean, simple math tells you that’s about 2.5M less but if you can’t do that (after I already did), that puts you at less than 16M for the 5 players not on the team.  

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Deferred salary for 2022

5.7m Davis

2m Cobb

1.5m Trumbo

1m  O'Day

1m Cashner

11.2m Total

Thank you! Now, why does Sports Guy have $16M?

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Deferred salary for 2022

5.7m Davis

2m Cobb

1.5m Trumbo

1m  O'Day

1m Cashner

11.2m Total

The original spotrac link that CoC posted said 6.5M for Cobb.  
 

Looking at things, that doesn’t appear to be accurate, which is why I hate spotrac.

I think what WC is posting here is likely more accurate.  So, instead of the original thought of 18.5M and then just under 16M, we should be around 11 as wildcard is saying here.

That should put the payroll in the 24-28M range for the projected payroll based off of my expected roster.  Of course, not everyone is going to have the same expected roster.  

@wildcard, thank you for pointing out the discrepancy for Cobb 

[Aristotelian]

Just went with 50-60 based on the $11M number for deferrals. $15M for prearb guys, $20M for arb guys, still leaves $4M-$14M for free agents. Could trade Mancini and spend a bit more.

[wildcard]

Cobb contract From Cots 

• $20M is deferred ($6.5M of 2018 salary and $4.5M annually of 2019-21 salaries), to be paid $2M on 11/30/22 and $1.8M annually each 11/30, 2023-32)

[owknows]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is definitely a good point.  I’m guessing if/when they do this, it’s a tiered system.  Probably tell teams they need to do this by a certain year but that it needs to start going up now.

Yeah... almost certainly would be phased in instead of a hard cut-in...

At first I thought this proposal was unlikely... but in the end I think it may be used as a Collective Bargaining ploy to avoid a work stoppage...

lower the luxury tax threshold so that it hits more teams... create a significantly high minimum payroll..

 

luxury tax has a negative salary impact on superstars... (who are small in number)... 

minimum payroll has a positive salary impact on pretty much everyone else.  Might split the player vote between the haves and have-nots.... but in the end it makes the CBA easier to achieve.

I think this has a real chance of happening

[OriolesMagic83]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Just went with 50-60 based on the $11M number for deferrals. $15M for prearb guys, $20M for arb guys, still leaves $4M-$14M for free agents. Could trade Mancini and spend a bit more.

$15 mill for prearb guys sounds high, since the O's like to give guys $10k raises or something similar.  Even if the $4-14 M figure is low, it reinforces my idea that Santander/Mancini should be traded/non tendered.  I can only think that Stowers is in the AFL because Elias thinks he will be a ML outfielder next year.  I could see the O's replacing Santander/Mancini w/ a cheap stopgap for $2 mill or less.  Looks like the best hopes for next year's team is a Cashner type signing that actually works and a veteran reliever, obviously not top tier.  At least one somewhat dependable 2b/SS/3B player needs to be signed and the O's could patch a lineup around them. 

[OriolesMagic83]

9 minutes ago, owknows said:

Yeah... almost certainly would be phased in instead of a hard cut-in...

At first I thought this proposal was unlikely... but in the end I think it may be used as a Collective Bargaining ploy to avoid a work stoppage...

lower the luxury tax threshold so that it hits more teams... create a significantly high minimum payroll..

 

luxury tax has a negative salary impact on superstars... (who are small in number)... 

minimum payroll has a positive salary impact on pretty much everyone else.  Might split the player vote between the haves and have-nots.... but in the end it makes the CBA easier to achieve.

I think this has a real chance of happening

I can't see the MLBPA decreasing the luxury tax, at least w/o a strike.  Who knows, maybe they would settle for a system that increases player revenue.  I was thinking a system that increases salary minimums for veteran players (money would obviously have to come from somewhere).  NBA has a system like this.