MLBTR arbitration projections

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe the budget is that tight.  Honestly, if payroll efficiency were the only goal, it would not make sense to keep Mancini.   That $7 mm couid be spent on players at other positions where we need help more.    But I do think fan relations are very important right now.   

Now, what I’m talking about is non-tendering Mancini.  If he were traded, I think the fans would not revolt.   
 

Maybe it will be a trade where the O's don't really get anything back.  Mancini plus non prospect traded to another team for a non prospect.

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it definitely factors in.    This is a fan base that’s endured 5 straight losing seasons, the last 4 of which have been almost unwatchable.   Mancini is a huge fan favorite who has gone to hell and back, just exactly the kind of guy Baltimore loves.   Nontendering him probably would be the last straw for a large number of fans.   You have to weigh that when deciding what to do.   

Lol…the worst part of this post is that it’s correct.  Heavens forbid they actually give us a good product and then losing Mancini matters less.

I always found it hilarious that a team that has basically sucked for most of the last 2+ decades is so worried about the PR about losing a certain player.  

[wildcard]

Mancini will not be non tendered because he has trade value.  We can argue about how much but the fact remains that he can be traded for something of value.     

And I can't see Mancini walking after the 2022 season for nothing.  That is just not an approach that keeps talent in the O's organization.  And Elias is all about adding and keeping talent.

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, ChrisP said:

• Trey Mancini – $7.9MM (Yes)
• Pedro Severino – $3.1MM (No)
• Pat Valaika – $1.3MM (No)
• Anthony Santander – $3.7MM (Yes)
• Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM (Yes, as a RP)
• Paul Fry – $1.1MM (?, probably)
• Tanner Scott – $1.0MM (?, Not sure here either)
• John Means – $3.1MM (Yes)

Thanks for putting together this list. 
 

I think we keep them all other than Valaika, other than trading Severino. 
 

Severino - here’s a situation where we’re undervaluing him because he’s on our team. Did you watch Sisco and Wynns this year?  Severino put up close to a .700 OPS and he hits LHP very well. Catching depth is so thin. He could be appealing to a team that wants to take a leap and “contend”.  Or a contending team that doesn’t want to sacrifice offense when they go to their 2nd C. Or a team that is locked into a big contract with an underperforming C, and this is a way for them to balance out a bad deal. 
 

Mancini - stays because if the CBA remains the same we won’t see AR or Stowers until post June 1. 
 

Everyone else is a no brainer to keep. Lopez might get another chance to start. Heck, maybe we do the TB model and he ‘s just a 3 IP SP and we rotate goes through AAA. We have lots of guys we need to take looks at that have options and lots of guys that need 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chances. 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks for putting together this list. 
 

I think we keep them all other than Valaika, other than trading Severino. 
 

Severino - here’s a situation where we’re undervaluing him because he’s on our team. Did you watch Sisco and Wynns this year?  Severino put up close to a .700 OPS and he hits LHP very well. Catching depth is so thin. He could be appealing to a team that wants to take a leap and “contend”.  Or a contending team that doesn’t want to sacrifice offense when they go to their 2nd C. Or a team that is locked into a big contract with an underperforming C, and this is a way for them to balance out a bad deal. 
 

Mancini - stays because if the CBA remains the same we won’t see AR or Stowers until post June 1. 
 

Everyone else is a no brainer to keep. Lopez might get another chance to start. Heck, maybe we do the TB model and he ‘s just a 3 IP SP and we rotate goes through AAA. We have lots of guys we need to take looks at that have options and lots of guys that need 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chances. 

AR will be with the O's in April if there is not strike.  The new CBA just tells us whether is OD or mid way through the month.

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Mancini will not be non tendered because he has trade value.

Not much.

[scOtt]

23 hours ago, ChrisP said:

• Trey Mancini – $7.9MM (Yes)
• Pedro Severino – $3.1MM (No)
• Pat Valaika – $1.3MM (No)
• Anthony Santander – $3.7MM (Yes)
• Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM (Yes, as a RP)
• Paul Fry – $1.1MM (?, probably)
• Tanner Scott – $1.0MM (?, Not sure here either)
• John Means – $3.1MM (Yes)

Pay Trey. Or extend him. He's still very productive, heart of the team, and it shouldn't be that much money. Like 3/30 with option(s) ?

Non-tender Seve.

Pay everyone else.

[scOtt]

23 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Lol at Pat Valaika. If there was any doubt in Valaika not getting non-tendered before that should settle any doubt. 

I can’t see Severino staying for $3M with his defense and AR on the horizon. Is there any chance the O’s could work out a trade? 

I disagree. You all know Elias' love of decent middle infielders. and $1.x is not that much money. Remember, CD (I think, as far as I can tell...) is only getting >6 mill this year. $11 million "mad money" this year.

[connja]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe the budget is that tight.  Honestly, if payroll efficiency were the only goal, it would not make sense to keep Mancini.   That $7 mm couid be spent on players at other positions where we need help more.  
 

THey are not just moving money within payroll….they are taking payroll savings and investing in operations (see new DR facility).   If I thought they would take that $7mm and put it back in the payroll I might support it.  

[scOtt]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe the budget is that tight.  Honestly, if payroll efficiency were the only goal, it would not make sense to keep Mancini.   That $7 mm couid be spent on players at other positions where we need help more.    But I do think fan relations are very important right now.   

Now, what I’m talking about is non-tendering Mancini.  If he were traded, I think the fans would not revolt.   
 

Depending on the return, but yes...

[scOtt]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Mancini will not be non tendered because he has trade value.  We can argue about how much but the fact remains that he can be traded for something of value.     

And I can't see Mancini walking after the 2022 season for nothing.  That is just not an approach that keeps talent in the O's organization.  And Elias is all about adding and keeping talent.

This. Even if not traded Trey gives us value. He's still a dangerous hitter. Not Vlad Jr. or anything like that but he's NOT the guy you want to face close and late.

[scOtt]

22 minutes ago, connja said:

They are not just moving money within payroll…. they are taking payroll savings and investing in operations (see new DR facility).   If I thought they would take that $7mm and put it back in the payroll I might support it.  

I don't believe that. They get X for the ML roster. Y for scouting. Z for development of facilities and analytic equipment. You don't rob Peter to pay Paul. GOOD businesses don't anyways...

[Il BuonO]

21 minutes ago, scOtt said:

This. Even if not traded Trey gives us value. He's still a dangerous hitter. Not Vlad Jr. or anything like that but he's NOT the guy you want to face close and late.

Is that value of a player or a good clubhouse guy?

[interloper]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Mancini will not be non tendered because he has trade value.  We can argue about how much but the fact remains that he can be traded for something of value.     

And I can't see Mancini walking after the 2022 season for nothing.  That is just not an approach that keeps talent in the O's organization.  And Elias is all about adding and keeping talent.

Yep. Trey has value both to other teams (if he has a decent year) and to the O's as a much-needed "respectability" bat in the middle of the order. Seriously, after the first 4 or 5 batters the lineup is bleak. He's also a fan-favorite, the heart of the clubhouse, and - this is really the key - there's just no real reason to get rid of him at this juncture of the rebuild. The O's can afford to hang onto him, no one is really breaking the door down to trade for him, and there's no big prospect clearly pushing him out of the DH/part-time 1B role. 

My theory has always been they are going to just hang onto him until he hits free agency. What you'd get in a trade is kind of negligible at this stage, so you honor his free-FA years and he's your guy until he's not. 

[scOtt]

6 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Is that value of a player or a good clubhouse guy?

Both. But most importantly as a player. He put up numbers this year. In line with his career averages. Next year should be at least as good with a full, healthy workout. Couple years (extension!) should be decent.