MLBTR arbitration projections

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So why didn't Hyde rest him more?

 

He did play Trey at 1B in less than half the games.   Honestly I don’t think it’s that strenuous to take 4 PA a night and sit on the bench when you’re not at bat or on base.   

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t tell where on that link Hyde is interviewed.   

I’m definitely not discounting the possibility that Trey’s season was impacted by his illness.   But there’s no real way to know, regardless of whatever Hyde says or believes.   Even if Trey comes back from a “regular” offseason and has a great year in 2022, we won’t know.   After all, Trey didn’t have cancer in 2018, yet he had a very mediocre year then, worse than 2021 in fact.   
 

scroll down to the third interview.  It has Hyde's name in the title.  Go to 10:15 in the interview.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

scroll down to the third interview.  It has Hyde's name in the title.  Go to 10:15 in the interview.

The link goes to the home page.   The interview isn’t listed there.   I eventually found it by clicking on the podcasts tab.  

I don’t think Hyde was that specific about the impact of the illness on Trey’s season.  He basically said Trey didn’t have an offseason and had to prepare himself beginning in January to play a full season, having just had cancer.   But he wasn’t asked if that affected the season Trey actually had.   He basically said that Trey overcoming adversity to have the season he had was the no. 1 story of the year for the Orioles.   It’s hard to disagree with that.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The link goes to the home page.   The interview isn’t listed there.   I eventually found it by clicking on the podcasts tab.  

I don’t think Hyde was that specific about the impact of the illness on Trey’s season.  He basically said Trey didn’t have an offseason and had to prepare himself beginning in January to play a full season, having just had cancer.   But he wasn’t asked if that affected the season Trey actually had.   He basically said that Trey overcoming adversity to have the season he had was the no. 1 story of the year for the Orioles.   It’s hard to disagree with that.  
 

I'll say successfully securing the top pick in the 2022 draft was the #1 story.

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Who is your DH and backup for 1B.  Can they hit as well as Mancini if he returns to his 2019 production?

Hilarious, you say who replaces him, I give you one who should have been obvious and then proceed to move the bar with,”Well, who’s his backup, then?”

Anyone who can catch thee ball can play 1B, so I’ll go with Santander. He covers your question for both positions. Kyle Schwarber has never played 1B and he looks fine there. 

Next

[Il BuonO]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If this was a reference to my meh comment about Mancini back in 2018 than mad respect for remembering it.

I had not remembered it, but great minds....

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He basically said that Trey overcoming adversity to have the season he had was the no. 1 story of the year for the Orioles.   It’s hard to disagree with that.  

 

 

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll say successfully securing the top pick in the 2022 draft was the #1 story.

Sigh…there’s one in every crowd…

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

 

Sigh…there’s one in every crowd…

They worked hard for that pick.

It's likely to have much larger impact on the team going forward.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

They worked hard for that pick.

It's likely to have much larger impact on the team going forward.

I’ll just let you be that guy.

[waroriole]

16 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Hilarious, you say who replaces him, I give you one who should have been obvious and then proceed to move the bar with,”Well, who’s his backup, then?”

Anyone who can catch thee ball can play 1B, so I’ll go with Santander. He covers your question for both positions. Kyle Schwarber has never played 1B and he looks fine there. 

Next

Chris Pratt learned how to play 1B. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll just let you be that guy.

I'm cut to the quick. 

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

Ugh, huge loss of respect here. 

Oh stop. I see your point, but I also see the other point. Mancini is not valueless, but he’s not worth 10 million bucks. He’s not worth an extension, and he probably wouldn’t bring back as much value in a trade as he would give if we kept him unless we find a particular team with a particular and immediate need. And that won’t happen until next summer.
At the moment it is true that we cannot replace him. Where is an equally powerful bat in AAA? Nowhere, I suggest, though we are awash with potential replacements. So Mr Buono is incorrect.

On the other hand, Trey’s WAR is middling. So is Mountcastle’s, by the way, Which just reinforces that defense is important. Even allowing for playing first base, neither of them had an outstanding WAR, And it would be arguably possible to replace it, but no I don’t think we have anybody waiting to do that. So Mr Buono is possibly correct.

And it is equally true that PR would take a hit if he were unceremoniously dumped. And the team obviously doesn’t care about that, but they are also obviously not going to dump him, so that is moot.

so let’s not whip out the pitchforks and torches just because of disagreement.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Philip

[Il BuonO]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Oh stop. I see your point, but I also see the other point. Mancini is not valueless, but he’s not worth 10 million bucks. He’s not worth an extension, and he probably wouldn’t bring back as much value in a trade as he would give if we kept him unless we find a particular team with a particular and immediate need. And that won’t happen until next summer.
At the moment it is true that we cannot replace him. Where is an equally powerful bat in AAA? Nowhere, I suggest, though we are awash with potential replacements. So Mr Buono is incorrect.

On the other hand, Trey’s WAR is middling. So is Mountcastle’s, by the way, Which just reinforces that defense is important. Even allowing for playing first base, neither of them had an outstanding WAR, And it would be arguably possible to replace it, but no I don’t think we have anybody waiting to do that. So Mr Buono is possibly correct.

And it is equally true that PR would take a hit if he were unceremoniously dumped. And the team obviously doesn’t care about that, but they are also obviously not going to dump him, so that is moot.

so let’s not whip out the pitchforks and torches just because of disagreement.

Replacement level players are, by definition, replaceable. The difference here comparing Mountcastle and Mancini is salary. 

If RM is at 1B going into the season there are a myriad of players to DH. And that’s no exaggeration.

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

And play who?  McKenna you can't hit a fastball or Stewart who is so streaky that when he is not hitting he is an out.  Neither are as good as Trey at DH even when he is not hitting well.

If Hyde was playing Mancini even though he was tired, and Santander(and possibly also Wells)even though he was injured, while resting Mullins to make sure he didn’t get worn out, he’s a bad manager. 

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s impossible to say if Trey’s numbers this year were impacted by his illness the year before.   At certain points during the season, he was having a very good year. His OPS was as high as .827 as late as July 28.   His final landing of .758 was the lowest his OPS was at any point after May 15.   He may have gotten fatigued by the cumulative impact of the long rehab plus a full season, or he may just have had a mediocre second half.  It happens.  

He also had the oblique issue at the end of the year.