2021 Orioles #8 Prospect - Jordan Westburg - SS/3B

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would that surprise you?

Because he has only played 30 games of AA and, while he was coming on towards the end, he hasn’t been excellent at that level yet.   I think he’ll get at least 2 more months of AA and the rest of the year at AAA, then be ready for 2023.    That seems consistent with how Elias & Co. have been running things.   Also, he doesn’t need to be put on the 40-man roster until after the 2023 season so I don’t think they’ll be in any hurry to put him on.

Believe me, I’d be happy if he played well enough to warrant a call-up in 2022.   
 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

So, if we are talking just the top 8 prospects and current players, we are looking at a potential future of: 

C- Adley Rutschman

1B- Ryan Mountcastle

2B- Jordan Westburg

SS- Gunnar Henderson

3B- Colby Mayo

LF- Austin Hays

CF- Cedric Mullins

RF- Colton Cowser

DH/OF- Kyle Stowers

That's a pretty nice lineup to dream on (yes, Westburg may be SS instead, but given Westburg's most likely is 2B and Henderson is 3B--and we already have a 3B option--I went this way). 

If only the pitching was as promising. We have: Rodriguez, Hall, Means thus far. We have guys like Bradish and Baumann that we may see on this list in not too long, but it appears most of the guys we have behind Rodriguez and Hall are more likely to land in the bullpen. Perhaps its the next batch of guys on the list like Norby, Kjerstad, etc. that with a year or two of production in the minors could be moved to help the SP. 

 

Remember we also have Urias who put up 2 WAR in under 300 AB's and is under team control until 2027. None of these guys may be the prototypical defensive SS but maybe an averageish SS with plus 2B/3B can add up to a good defensive infield. Maybe we fill out the active roster with a defense guy who plays whenever we get the lead etc.

There's also Norby and Vavra so there are plenty of options for viable MLB infielders. Unfortunately just no sure thing at SS.

Another approach might be to trade Hays and move Henderson/Mayo to 1B/DH with Mountcastle. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is a really good observation and point. Even with the power hitters, all of them have high OBPs and the ability to take a walk. The previous group of prospects like Hays, Mountcastle and even Santander are all guys with good power potential, but not high OBP abilities. With Cowser, Westburg and even some of the guys on the rest of the list (no particular order) like Donta Williams, Connor Norby, and Terrrin Vavra are all line drive OBP guys who mix in with the power potential guys like Rutschman, Mayo, Henderson, Stowers and Kjerstad.

This is a huge difference between the Elias regime and the Duquette regime.   Plate discipline/good swing decisions are being emphasized in the draft and then reinforced heavily during minor league instruction.    That hasn’t been a point of emphasis here in a long, long time.    I’m really looking forward to seeing the collective effect of that in future seasons. 

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, mlrhode said:

You're description of Westburg's arm strength sounds very similar to J.J. Hardy's. I don't think J.J had a great arm but he always seemed to have just enough to get the runner.

Funny that you mentioned JJ's name because that's who he reminds me of when he plays SS. He has a very good game clock to get guys out by that half step. Saying that, JJ's arm was stronger when he needed it.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Because he has only played 30 games of AA and, while he was coming on towards the end, he hasn’t been excellent at that level yet.   I think he’ll get at least 2 more months of AA and the rest of the year at AAA, then be ready for 2023.    That seems consistent with how Elias & Co. have been running things.   Also, he doesn’t need to be put on the 40-man roster until after the 2023 season so I don’t think they’ll be in any hurry to put him on.

Believe me, I’d be happy if he played well enough to warrant a call-up in 2022.   
 

Yea but he was a college bat that zoomed through the minors, has virtually no one ahead of him and is a few good months away from being in AAA or the majors.

TBH, my feelings are if he doesn’t get to the majors this year, that the team is either being absurd with promotions, he has been hurt or he has greatly underperformed. 
 

The reality is that if things go right, he should be the everyday SS by August.

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but he was a college bat that zoomed through the minors, has virtually no one ahead of him and is a few good months away from being in AAA or the majors.

TBH, my feelings are if he doesn’t get to the majors this year, that the team is either being absurd with promotions, he has been hurt or he has greatly underperformed. 
 

The reality is that if things go right, he should be the everyday SS by August.

I agree that a normal progression for him would be to come up around August, perhaps sooner. I really want to see him thrive in AA first. I am not as worried about AAA, but I think it is important to have a strong few months in AA.

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Remember we also have Urias who put up 2 WAR in under 300 AB's and is under team control until 2027. None of these guys may be the prototypical defensive SS but maybe an averageish SS with plus 2B/3B can add up to a good defensive infield. Maybe we fill out the active roster with a defense guy who plays whenever we get the lead etc.

There's also Norby and Vavra so there are plenty of options for viable MLB infielders. Unfortunately just no sure thing at SS.

Another approach might be to trade Hays and move Henderson/Mayo to 1B/DH with Mountcastle. 

You mean guys like Gutierrez or Mateo?

I think both of them are good gloves and both really put pressure on defenses with their speed on the basepaths.  Have we totally written these two off as potential players on the teams of the future?  I am really interested to see what they do in 2022.  If they both learn to hit, I am all for keeping them.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but he was a college bat that zoomed through the minors, has virtually no one ahead of him and is a few good months away from being in AAA or the majors.

TBH, my feelings are if he doesn’t get to the majors this year, that the team is either being absurd with promotions, he has been hurt or he has greatly underperformed. 
 

The reality is that if things go right, he should be the everyday SS by August.

You have a very distorted view of what’s normal progression IMO.   Westburg was drafted in 2020.   For him to debut in 2022 means basically he went from being drafted to the majors in two years. That’s highly unusual.   Looking at 2019, there were 261 players who debuted in the majors, 162 of whom were drafted out of college, and only 9 of those players were drafted in 2017 or later.   So obviously it is not impossible, but it’s rare , and it would be far from absurd if Westburg didn’t debut until 2023.   And that’s what I expect is going to happen.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

You have a very distorted view of what’s normal progression IMO.   Westburg was drafted in 2020.   For him to debut in 2022 means basically he went from being drafted to the majors in two years. That’s highly unusual.   Looking at 2019, there were 261 players who debuted in the majors, 162 of whom were drafted out of college, and only 9 of those players were drafted in 2017 or later.   So obviously it is not impossible, but it’s rare , and it would be far from absurd if Westburg didn’t debut until 2023.   And that’s what I expect is going to happen.   

There is not one good reason not to bring him up this year if he is performing at a high Level in the upper minors.  He is not a guy you play the service time game with.

What you just talked about is essentially teams playing the service time game.

Also, your research fails to discuss how many of the 162 players drafted out of college were good enough to even be in the discussion of being in the majors a few years later.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is not one good reason not to bring him up this year if he is performing at a high Level in the upper minors.  He is not a guy you play the service time game with.

What you just talked about is essentially teams playing the service time game.

Also, your research fails to discuss how many of the 162 players drafted out of college were good enough to even be in the discussion of being in the majors a few years later.

You are obviously don’t place as much value on AA/AAA experience as most major league teams do.   I disagree that service time plays a big role in delaying most major league debuts.   But whatever.   I told you what I expected to happen, and why.   We’ll see if I’m right.   

Another way to look at this would be: how many players with 30 games or less of AA experience play in the majors the following year.   I don’t have an easy way to get that information, but I’m sure that only a small minority do.   Of the 9 players i mentioned who were drafted in 2017 or later and debuted in 2019, most of them had more AA or higher experience by the end of 2018 than Westburg has now.  
 

[Frobby]

Here’s another data point, FWIW.    I mentioned in another thread that from 2012-18, the Astros drafted 15 players who have accumulated 1+ WAR and the O’s drafted 12.    Of those 27 players, 4 made it to the majors in 2 years or less: Bregman (1:2 pick), Gausman (1:4 pick), Hays and Mengden.   So even among successful players, it’s rare to make it to the majors in such a short time.   It happens a few times each season, but it’s by far the exception.

I just hope Westburg plays well enough in 2022 to justify a debate over whether he should be called up.   

[Jammer7]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You have a very distorted view of what’s normal progression IMO.   Westburg was drafted in 2020.   For him to debut in 2022 means basically he went from being drafted to the majors in two years. That’s highly unusual.   Looking at 2019, there were 261 players who debuted in the majors, 162 of whom were drafted out of college, and only 9 of those players were drafted in 2017 or later.   So obviously it is not impossible, but it’s rare , and it would be far from absurd if Westburg didn’t debut until 2023.   And that’s what I expect is going to happen.   

It may not be normal for all college players, but I was talking about his personal trajectory. As a supplemental 1st round pick, with his apparent aptitude, athletic ability, defensive prowess and SEC experience, I don’t think it would be unusual at all. It also would not surprise me at all if it took him another year. I would not be down on him much if it took a little longer.

I think it might be ok to move him a little quicker than they might normally and pair him with Adley, Stowers, Neustrom and such to build the young nucleus together as soon as possible. He will continue to learn on the job and may struggle some at first. 

[Sports Guy]

Westburg can get at least another 300ish AA/AAA at bats by early August.

That would give him over 400 at bats in the upper minors, after staying too long in the lower minors.

He had a 976 OPs in September in Bowie, covering 18 games.  If he goes to AA this year and continues to hit well, there is no reason to leave him down.  You can come up with whatever research you want about teams stupidly leaving guys down too long but if a college drafted player has 400+ at bats in the upper minors, after dominating the lower minors, and is giving you very good production and is ready defensively as well, there isn’t any good reason to leave him down.

The only reason you leave him down at that point is service time.  That’s teams saying, the 60ish games they get into the rest of the year isn’t as valuable as the extra years of service time if we wait.  It’s incredibly naive to think differently because in the scenario I’m laying out, you are saying it’s necessary for him to get into another 30ish games/100-120 at bats in the upper minors.  Why?  Why does that matter?  Is that SSS going to change him?  No, of course not.

But it’s the teams way of saying, we will wait until next year and get the extra year.  If the CBa changes, you will see teams be more aggressive with this and we no longer have to hear the excuses from teams and the fans as to why it’s justifiable.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

It may not be normal for all college players, but I was talking about his personal trajectory. As a supplemental 1st round pick, with his apparent aptitude, athletic ability, defensive prowess and SEC experience, I don’t think it would be unusual at all. It also would not surprise me at all if it took him another year. I would not be down on him much if it took a little longer.

I think it might be ok to move him a little quicker than they might normally and pair him with Adley, Stowers, Neustrom and such to build the young nucleus together as soon as possible. He will continue to learn on the job and may struggle some at first. 

His personal trajectory was very good, but really nothing amazing.   Elias gave him a very conservative initial placement in low A, hence the “played at three levels” narrative, but I’m sure there were quite a few 2020 college draftees who made it to AA (or higher) by the end of this season, and spent more time there than Westburg did.   

All this makes it sound like I’m down on Westburg - far from it!    I picked him at no. 7, ahead of Stowers.   But it’s just not that common for college players to make it to the majors in two years, and there are a number of reasons to think Westburg won’t be one of the exceptions.   
 

[wildcard]

Depends a lot on what happens with the CBA.  It could turn out that it is a benefit to the clubs and the players to call up prospects in Sept under the new CBA.  

Right now its doesn't look like anyone is blocking Westburg at SS.  So if he starts the season at AA.  Hits well early he could be in Norfolk in a month or two.   If he hits well in AAA for a couple of months he might  be promoted to the Majors.  His defense seem like he is close to being major league ready.  Its depends on if he hits IMO.

A lot has to go right but if it does then I think it could happen.