A few other thoughts and facts about the OH top 30

[Frobby]

New to the list:

4. Cowser

10. Norby

12. Basallo

13. Pinto

14. Hernandez

19. Ortiz

21. Rhodes

22. Bautista 

23. Young

24. Willems 

25. Deson

26. Trimble

27. Williams 

30. Rangel

Of the 14 new names, only two (Ortiz and Bautista) had played for the organization before 2021.   Of the other 12, six were 2021 draftees, one was a 2020 undrafted amateur, three were international signings, and two were international players acquired in trades in 2020.

Off the list (last year’s ranking):

3. Mountcastle* (* = no longer eligible)

9. Kremer*

10. Akin*

12. Diaz

17. Wells 

19. Hernaiz

20. Hanifee

21. A. Hall

24. Smith 

25. Zimmermann*

27. McKenna*

28. Stauffer

29. Bannon

30. Nevin

That’s five who graduated, nine who slipped off the list    

Made the list despite missing substantial time in 2021:

9. Kjerstad

16. Baumler

19. Ortiz

20. Vavra

28. Servideo

Highest level reached:

MLB: 2 (Lowther, Baumann)

AAA: 4 (Rutschman, Stowers, Bautista, Bradish)

AA: 7 (Rodriguez, Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Rom, Ortiz, Vavra

A+: 3 (Young, Servideo, Haskin)

A: 8 (Mayo, Cowser, Norby, Pinto, Rhodes, Deson, Trimble, Williams)

FCL: 2 (Willems, Rangel)

DSL: 2 (Basallo, Hernandez)

Haven’t played: 2 (Kjerstad, Baumler)

As I see it, the six MLB/AAA guys plus Rodriguez are likely to see time in the majors in 2022.    Hall, Westburg and Rom are possibilities, though I’d bet against it.  Hall will be on the 40-man and so has the best chance of that group.   Henderson, Ortiz and Vavra should just hope they can progress to AAA during 2022.

[interloper]

Man it struck me just now that NOBODY mentioned Diaz AT ALL through all the top 30 posts, as far as I can remember. We have collectively written him off almost completely to the extent that it didn't even register he slipped off the list.

[UMDTerrapins]

Good post. It occurs to me that while our Rule V decisions aren't excruciating this year, next year will be interesting. We'll have to find room for or make decisions on Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Joseph Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Drew Rom, Kyle Brnovich, Mishael Deson, Zach Peek, Zach Watson, and others. Good problems to have but protecting guys we like is going to become more challenging year over year. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Good post. It occurs to me that while our Rule V decisions aren't excruciating this year, next year will be interesting. We'll have to find room for or make decisions on Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Joseph Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Drew Rom, Kyle Brnovich, Mishael Deson, Zach Peek, Zach Watson, and others. Good problems to have but protecting guys we like is going to become more challenging year over year. 

Adley and Grayson will be in the 40 man way before that…Probably Stowers too.

[UMDTerrapins]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley and Grayson will be in the 40 man way before that…Probably Stowers too.

Yeah, I was inferring that we'll have to make room for them by or before this time next year....just doing a poor job of wording it that way. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Yeah, I was inferring that we'll have to make room for them by or before this time next year....just doing a poor job of wording it that way. 

Yea, it really was!  

In all seriousness, I think a lot of those will work itself out.  That being said, this goes back to what I was saying to Tony that you don’t want to get to the point where you are losing quality guys for nothing and/or you wait too long and see values plummet.  
 

They have to start making some moves to avoid these things.

[LookinUp]

There are known guys who didn't make the list (Peek, Brnovich, etc.), there are international guys who didn't make the list (De La Cruz and others) and then there's the guys we drafted this year that nobody has thought much about. I think some of these guys, like the international guys, just didn't get enough exposure to get attention. Most won't pan out, but these are some guys I'm mildly curious about. Who knows, maybe one or two will end up really good?

 

Collin Burns - 6th round over slot, ss didn't hit for much power
Connor Pavolony - 7th round over slot that didn't hit well at all this year
Billy Cook - 10th rounder, extreme flyball guy (.33 GO/AO), showed some power
Dylan Heid - 11th rounder with some hype that may or may not have been accurate
Justin Armbruester - 12th, good results in Delmarva 16 k in 9 IP
Jacob Teter - 13th rounder, .935 OPS at Delmarva
Daniel Lloyd - over slot, 14th round
Peter Van Loon - 16th round senior pitcher, decent results
Trendon Craig - largest over slot after Willems and Rhodes (e.g., most over slot, not most paid)
 

[UMDTerrapins]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, it really was!  

In all seriousness, I think a lot of those will work itself out.  That being said, this goes back to what I was saying to Tony that you don’t want to get to the point where you are losing quality guys for nothing and/or you wait too long and see values plummet.  
 

They have to start making some moves to avoid these things.

Ouch!   True, some of these just work themselves out.....like thinking you have too many candidates for the rotation (which never turns out to be the case). But while some guys will work themselves off the 40 man, some will work their way into consideration. I 100% agree with dealing from our prospect depth if the right deals come along.

[Frobby]

Big movers in 2021: 

Mayo 15 to 3

Stowers 23 to 7

Rom 18 to 11

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Good post. It occurs to me that while our Rule V decisions aren't excruciating this year, next year will be interesting. We'll have to find room for or make decisions on Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Joseph Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Drew Rom, Kyle Brnovich, Mishael Deson, Zach Peek, Zach Watson, and others. Good problems to have but protecting guys we like is going to become more challenging year over year. 

There's still a bunch of "filler" on the 40-man that will come off so that we can make room for the ones we want to keep next year. This year will be big for the likes of Martin, Diaz, Nevin, Bannon, Stewart, A.Wells, Mattson, Kriske, Krehbiel, Fry, Akin and a few others that may see themselves pushed aside for better players. And, of course, we may see some guys like Santander, Mancini or Sulser dealt at some point this year that could also free up some spots. 

By the time we get to this point next year, I imagine the list will look a bit less long...though hopefully we see a few breakouts to complicate things.