The Mullins market

[Sports Guy]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/looking-for-a-match-in-a-kevin-kiermaier-trade.html
 

This is an article about Kiermaier but it highlights the teams that could/are looking for a CFer.  
 

Now, I’m not sure all of them would actually be in the market for a CFer, much less one at Mullins expected value but it does show that there are a lot of potential suitors out there and how a bidding war could occur should the Os decide to shop him.

[Aristotelian]

We are probably a 45 win team without Mullins. He is not even arb eligible yet. I see no reason to do trade Mullins if the goal is to win during the Rutschman window. Perhaps the only player I might consider trading him for is Rutschman and we already have him. Possibly Witt but I doubt KC does that. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We are probably a 45 win team without Mullins. He is not even arb eligible yet. I see no reason to do trade Mullins if the goal is to win during the Rutschman window. Perhaps the only player I might consider trading him for is Rutschman and we already have him. Possibly Witt but I doubt KC does that. 

Yea, this is an extremely short sighted view on team building, long term outlooks, etc…

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We are probably a 45 win team without Mullins. He is not even arb eligible yet. I see no reason to do trade Mullins if the goal is to win during the Rutschman window. Perhaps the only player I might consider trading him for is Rutschman and we already have him. Possibly Witt but I doubt KC does that. 

I would say you greatly overrate Mullins.   I do like him, and am not in any big hurry to trade him, but I’d always be willing to listen.   

[panick]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We are probably a 45 win team without Mullins. He is not even arb eligible yet. I see no reason to do trade Mullins if the goal is to win during the Rutschman window. Perhaps the only player I might consider trading him for is Rutschman and we already have him. Possibly Witt but I doubt KC does that. 

You doubt???

[clapdiddy]

This team desperately needs starting pitching.   If you can parlay Mullins into an arm that can step into the rotation now (or very soon), I think you have to consider it.  Like @Frobby said...we are in a good position with him.  You don't give him away, but you have to look into what his value is right now.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would say you greatly overrate Mullins.   I do like him, and am not in any big hurry to trade him, but I’d always be willing to listen.   

Do you think his value is higher now or next offseason (let's assume he posts a ~4-5 WAR season in 2022)? Longer window of cheap control now, but more certainty / established performance level with another strong season.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Do you think his value is higher now or next offseason (let's assume he posts a ~4-5 WAR season in 2022)? Longer window of cheap control now, but more certainty / established performance level with another strong season.

I think he’s worth more in July or next offseason if he has another year like 2021 or at least something close to it.

But we just don’t know what he will be in 2022.  
 

It would irresponsible of Elias to not shop him.  Doesn’t mean he has to trade him but you have to shop him.

As I said before, if a team(s) is valuing him as a 5ish WAR guy with a cheap contract and a lot of service time left, that would likely mean the package is too good to pass up and you have to make the move.

 

[sportsfan8703]

162 games in the AL East makes Mullins established. We’ve floated around the Marlins trade idea with their arms. As good as Mullins is, we cannot ever win without SP. so we have to consider it. I don’t think his value would be ever higher. 

[Yardball85]

You trade him if the return is surplus value and makes sense.  There should be zero players, including Adley (though practically, you don't actually trade him) who are off limits.    I like some of the suggestions with the Marlins for a deal including Max Mayer.  Seattle could make sense too if Kelenic is seen as more of a corner OF.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

You trade him if the return is surplus value and makes sense.  There should be zero players, including Adley (though practically, you don't actually trade him) who are off limits.    I like some of the suggestions with the Marlins for a deal including Max Mayer.  Seattle could make sense too if Kelenic is seen as more of a corner OF.

Why do you need surplus value?  Equivalent value in areas of need aren't good enough?  I don't think you have to win a trade for a trade to make sense.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Do you think his value is higher now or next offseason (let's assume he posts a ~4-5 WAR season in 2022)? Longer window of cheap control now, but more certainty / established performance level with another strong season.

Well, I definitely don’t assume that Mullins will post a 4-5 WAR season.   If he did, I think that would increase his trade value significantly compared to what it is now, even though he’d be under team control for one less year and his pre-Arb years would be over.   But let’s say he has a 2.5 - 3 WAR season.   Then I think his value is probably down compared to where it is now.   

Looking at Mullins’ 2021 season, in the first 81 games he was worth 4.0 rWAR and had a .941 OPS; in the second half he was worth 1.7 rWAR had an .811 OPS.   So do you think the “real” Mullins is the first half guy, the second half guy, or the whole season guy?   My own guess is the second half is closer to reality.   And that’s still pretty good.    I think his trade value if he had a 3.4 WAR season with an .800+ OPS wouid be about the same as now, with the extra year of pretty good performance giving teams confidence in his value that would counteract the diminishment in value from getting one less year of performance.   But, I’d look to see what his market is now.
 

[interloper]

I think folks hoping for a Mullins trade are going to have a long winter. I agree the O's should shop him, and probably will at least listen to offers, but my gut says they keep him. 

[wildcard]

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will bring more later.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will not bring more later.

Not to muddy the Mullins thread but I’d claim Clint Frazier and trade Mancini. You’d have to view the trade as Frazier + whatever we get for Mancini.