The Mullins market

[Aristotelian]

Not much detail here but Marlins have signed Soler. Writer says no urgency to sign another OF and his sources say Marlins were never considering trading Meyer to get Brian Reynolds. I assume that extends to Mullins as well

 

https://manonsecondbaseball.com/more-moves-to-follow-marlins-have-flexibility-to-keep-adding/

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not much detail here but Marlins have signed Soler. Writer says no urgency to sign another OF and his sources say Marlins were never considering trading Meyer to get Brian Reynolds. I assume that extends to Mullins as well

 

https://manonsecondbaseball.com/more-moves-to-follow-marlins-have-flexibility-to-keep-adding/

Certainly possible that this is true.  We also have no idea if it is either.  And even if you couldn’t get Meyer, there are plenty of other arms worth going after for Mullins.

Either way, the Os are going to keep Mullins and waste at least one year of his career by not putting a good team out there this year.  They are then going to waste another year hoping to be a 500ish team in 2023.   
 

So basically, we are keeping Mullins for the hope that he can be a good CFer 3 seasons from now, for a contending team.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Certainly possible that this is true.  We also have no idea if it is either.  And even if you couldn’t get Meyer, there are plenty of other arms worth going after for Mullins.

Either way, the Os are going to keep Mullins and waste at least one year of his career by not putting a good team out there this year.  They are then going to waste another year hoping to be a 500ish team in 2023.   
 

So basically, we are keeping Mullins for the hope that he can be a good CFer 3 seasons from now, for a contending team.

Too early to say how good or bad the O's will be this year.   There will be a lot of players advancing from the minors during the season.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Not much detail here but Marlins have signed Soler. Writer says no urgency to sign another OF and his sources say Marlins were never considering trading Meyer to get Brian Reynolds. I assume that extends to Mullins as well

 

https://manonsecondbaseball.com/more-moves-to-follow-marlins-have-flexibility-to-keep-adding/

Good signing by the Marlins.  If anything, I'd thnk this increases the chances they try to get a player like Mullins - as it shows they're trying to improve this year.  And Soler is a mediocre defensive corner OFer who might end up playing DH.  His value is in his bat.    

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Certainly possible that this is true.  We also have no idea if it is either.  And even if you couldn’t get Meyer, there are plenty of other arms worth going after for Mullins.

Either way, the Os are going to keep Mullins and waste at least one year of his career by not putting a good team out there this year.  They are then going to waste another year hoping to be a 500ish team in 2023.   
 

So basically, we are keeping Mullins for the hope that he can be a good CFer 3 seasons from now, for a contending team.

I agree with you that we should pursue trading Mullins, but I do not see it so black and white. It is possible the market currently values him based on his overall career stats and/or sees him as too risky. If the return is not there, I am fine with keeping him for now. Maybe another team gets desperate at the trade deadline or next offseason. If not, the Orioles could certainly be good before Mullins becomes a free agent as I hope we are good before 2026. I think we should be exploring all options but there is no indication we aren't doing that. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree with you that we should pursue trading Mullins, but I do not see it so black and white. It is possible the market currently values him based on his overall career stats and/or sees him as too risky. If the return is not there, I am fine with keeping him for now. Maybe another team gets desperate at the trade deadline or next offseason. If not, the Orioles could certainly be good before Mullins becomes a free agent as I hope we are good before 2026. I think we should be exploring all options but there is no indication we aren't doing that. 

No doubt they keep him if the return isn’t good.  I’m not questioning that.

 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Good signing by the Marlins.  If anything, I'd thnk this increases the chances they try to get a player like Mullins - as it shows they're trying to improve this year.  And Soler is a mediocre defensive corner OFer who might end up playing DH.  His value is in his bat.    

Agreed.  When Jeter left I thought they were done with signings.  Now I would guess they are looking to compete and they would consider trades to some degree.  (Maybe still not moving some of the arms we would want though).

[Just Regular]

Mediocre for Soler says it generously - bottom 10 in OAA last year among outfielders.

If they like Aguilar and Cooper both well enough to treat them like Mancini and Mountcastle as 1B/DH lock, that forces Jesus Sanchez (slightly above average corner OF by last year OAA) or Avisail Garcia (slightly below average corner OF) into CF.

I feel like Ng showed a preference in her park by the Starling Marte acquisition.    The whole Cooper-Mancini DH upgrade possibility is probably a pile of Meh, but Mullins would fit roster well. 

Feels way more likely Rays could offload Margot or Kiermaier than something as big as Mullins happening.

[Il BuonO]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Too early to say how good or bad the O's will be this year.   There will be a lot of players advancing from the minors during the season.

They’ll be bad.

[Can_of_corn]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Too early to say how good or bad the O's will be this year.   There will be a lot of players advancing from the minors during the season.

Elias obviously doesn't think they will be good or he'd be doing more supplementing the roster for a playoff run.

[yark14]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So basically, we are keeping Mullins for the hope that he can be a good CFer 3 seasons from now, for a contending team.

Sure, why not?  If teams aren't offering solid returns, then no point in trading him.  At least he gives us something to look forward to this season, and he can mentor the young guys.  Many folks on this board have the mindset of "trade anything of value"...well if you keep trading everyone you'll be in a continuous rebuild cycle.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 hours ago, wildcard said:

Too early to say how good or bad the O's will be this year.

No it isn't. We were the worst team in baseball last year and made no meaningful improvements. Jordan "Home Run Dispenser" Lyles is our #2 starter. Kelvin Gutierrez and Rougned Odor are likely to be everyday players for us. We play in a division with 4 teams that won at least 90 games last year. 

It will be a borderline miracle if we lose less than 95 games in 2022. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

No it isn't. We were the worst team in baseball last year and made no meaningful improvements. Jordan "Home Run Dispenser" Lyles is our #2 starter. Kelvin Gutierrez and Rougned Odor are likely to be everyday players for us. We play in a division with 4 teams that won at least 90 games last year. 

It will be a borderline miracle if we lose less than 95 games in 2022. 

There are plenty of negatives if that is the way you want to go.  But there are a lot of positives if things fall right.  Adley is a major upgrade.   Tyler Wells to the rotation.  Grayson up in May.  The infield is unsettled.  We don't know  what Urias, Mateo and Owings will bring.  Bautista throwing 100mph.  Baker given a chance may be part of the pen. Lopez could be great out of the pen. Bradish should be near ready.

Overall health is a big deal.  Healthy Mancini, Hays and Santander could be big.  Mountcastle could hit 40 homers.  He was on that pace in the 2nd half of 2021.  Mullins is an All-Star and does not have to regress.  Westburg, DL Hall, Stowers and Ortiz could all be in the majors in the 2nd half.

I don't know how much of this pans out.   All I can say is its too early to know what will happen. When a young team gels anything can happen.

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There are plenty of negatives if that is the way you want to go.  But there are a lot of positives if things fall right.  Adley is a major upgrade.   Tyler Wells to the rotation.  Grayson up in May.  The infield is unsettled.  We don't know  what Urias, Mateo and Owings will bring.  Bautista throwing 100mph.  Baker given a chance may be part of the pen. Lopez could be great out of the pen. Bradish should be near ready.

Overall health is a big deal.  Healthy Mancini, Hays and Santander could be big.  Mountcastle could hit 40 homers.  He was on that pace in the 2nd half of 2021.  Mullins is an All-Star and does not have to regress.  Westburg, DL Hall, Stowers and Ortiz could all be in the majors in the 2nd half.

I don't know how much of this pans out.   All I can say is its too early to know what will happen. When a young team gels anything can happen.

Don’t hurt yourself reaching too much with some of these.

The one I will agree on is that you have no idea how much a young player improves.  It can happen quickly for some of them.

[NJOriolesFan]

I like Mullins but if all things play out based on our system and our number one pick, he is probably our leftfielder, better than Hays but hopefully around as good as some combination of Stowers, Cowser, Kjerstad.  Druw Jones should be our number 1 pick and centerfielder by end of 2024.  An outfield of Stowers, Jones, Cowser, Hays as 4th outfielder and Kjerstad at DH would be a fine "plan".  At that point, whoever doesn't make it, you buy a bat or two. 

If Mullins can get us a starting pitcher equivalent to him or a notch below and a shortstop prospect (or two top 5 org prospects and another just outside top 10, two of them pitchers) I would be all in but we may get a better return at the deadline from teams looking to make a playoff push.  It is very likely four teams within our division are looking at trying to nail down a spot.  There are teams that will have good use for even a .270, 20/20 guy with a .340 OBP and good defense at centerfield/leftfield.  If we were in competing window he is exactly who we would want.