Meoli Analysis of Recent Moves

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

The full explanation is not spelled out in the article, but I could imagine a scenario where a floor is set and then there is a mad rush to sign one year guys. If you were targeting a particular player you might miss your chance or pay an even bigger premium by waiting.

I think it would be hard to imagine a scenario where any hypothetical salary floor would kick in for 2022 AFTER free agency had already started / many players had gone off the market. That seems silly.  Any such floor would likely go into effect in 2023.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think it would be hard to imagine a scenario where any hypothetical salary floor would kick in for 2022 AFTER free agency had already started / many players had gone off the market. That seems silly.  Any such floor would likely go into affect in 2023.

And would probably be staggered over several seasons.

[LA2]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And would probably be staggered over several seasons.

I'm curious: How does one stagger a salary floor? Do you mean by gradually raising it?

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, LA2 said:

I'm curious: How does one stagger a salary floor? Do you mean by gradually raising it?

Yes.

Sorry if my choice of words was confusing.

[Aristotelian]

16 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think it would be hard to imagine a scenario where any hypothetical salary floor would kick in for 2022 AFTER free agency had already started / many players had gone off the market. That seems silly.  Any such floor would likely go into effect in 2023.

Lyles does have a 2023 team option!

[Roll Tide]

23 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It doesn't make sense to assume the Lyles signing is to get over some floor.

 

Unless negotiations have lend to some understanding on the subject that the owners are prepared to agree on and live with.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Unless negotiations have lend to some understanding on the subject that the owners are prepared to agree on and live with.

Even so they have better ways to spend the money.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Lyles does have a 2023 team option!

Yes, but they could always spend money needed in 2023. There's not a really good reason at this point to believe that this move was made in some sort of panic to conform to some not-yet-in-place salary floor.

[NCRaven]

The owners have made it clear that a salary floor would need to be attached to a lower luxury tax threshold (a soft cap), potentially with stiffer penalties for exceeding that threshold.  The MLBPA has made it clear that they won't acccept a lower luxury tax with stiffer penalties.  So, as of now, I don't see a salary floor going into place unless one or the other caves on this issue.  I think that there are other ways to increase younger players share of the revenue that will allow them to avoid a floor/hard ceiling on payrolls.

But, older players still won't like that owners have realized that paying over thirty year-olds for their declining years is not a good business model.

[LA2]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes.

Sorry if my choice of words was confusing.

Np. Just wanted to know what you meant. Thanks.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

But, older players still won't like that owners have realized that paying over thirty year-olds for their declining years is not a good business model.

?????

Corey Seager  10 year, 325m to age 37

Guasman 6 year 110m to age 36

Semien 6 year  175m to age 36

Ray 5 year  130m to age 34

Scherzer 3  year  130m  to age 40

Stroman 5 year  71m to age 35

Baez 6 year  140m to age 34

Marte 4 year  80m to age 36

Ed Rod 5 year  77m to age 33

Taylor 4 year 64m to age 34

Raisel Iglesias 4 year 56m to age 35

Gray 4 year 45m to age 33

Desclafani 3 year 36m at age 34

Verlander 2 year 50m to age 40

Avisail Gracia 4 year  53m to 35

Matz 4 year 44m to age 34

Graveman 3 year 24m to age 33

Canha 3 year 26.4m to age 34

Ed Escobar 2 year 20m to age 34

And probably close to that many yet to come this off season.

Looks like owners are spend on over 30 year  old player to me.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

?????

Corey Seager  10 year, 325m to age 37

Guasman 6 year 110m to age 36

Semien 6 year  175m to age 36

Ray 5 year  130m to age 34

Scherzer 3  year  130m  to age 40

Stroman 5 year  71m to age 35

Baez 6 year  140m to age 34

Marte 4 year  80m to age 36

Ed Rod 5 year  77m to age 33

Taylor 4 year 64m to age 34

Raisel Iglesias 4 year 56m to age 35

Gray 4 year 45m to age 33

Desclafani 3 year 36m at age 34

Verlander 2 year 50m to age 40

Avisail Gracia 4 year  53m to 35

Matz 4 year 44m to age 34

Graveman 3 year 24m to age 33

Canha 3 year 26.4m to age 34

Ed Escobar 2 year 20m to age 34

And probably close to that many yet to come this off season.

Looks like owners are spend on over 30 year  old player to me.

Nice work.

I wouldn't read a ton into this year without looking at the overall trend over the length of the current CBA.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice work.

I wouldn't read a ton into this year without looking at the overall trend over the length of the current CBA.

Players  really have to sacrifice so much by being required to wait a whole 6 years to sign a big  free agent contracts.   It just makes me want to cry for them. Not. 

I will be really pissed if even ST is delayed because there is no agreement.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Players  really have to sacrifice so much by being required to wait a whole 6 years to sign a big  free agent contracts.   It just makes me want to cry for them. Not. 

I will be really pissed if even ST is delayed because there is no agreement.

Not that many get to go the "whole six years to sign a big free agent contract" route.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Players  really have to sacrifice so much by being required to wait a whole 6 years to sign a big  free agent contracts.   It just makes me want to cry for them. Not. 

I will be really pissed if even ST is delayed because there is no agreement.

First of all, thanks for that contract compilation.   You made your point very well.

I think the players’ fear is more on behalf of the more “middle class” players who get pushed out of jobs because there’s somebody younger, maybe not quite as good, but way cheaper.   On a more “meta” level, they want the player salary pie to be bigger, and one way to do that is to reduce incentives for owners to go young and cheap.