Fangraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospect List

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson interview is up:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-baltimore-orioles-prospect-grayson-rodriguez/

Who knew spin rate doesn't really matter anymore?   I guess clock orientation has been pinpointed as the bigger thing.

98.5 > 95.7, though I wonder how much of that AVG was the 70 pitches/turn shackles of 2021.

Him or Bradish for the Norfolk opener?

 

I’m not sure if they were saying spin rate is less of a thing on all pitches, or just four-seam fastballs.   In any event, great interview.  He seems super-knowledgeable about what he’s trying to do.   

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He gives a great interview and seems really well informed.

Yeah. Baseball gods please keep this kid healthy.  He seems to have a really good work ethic and outlook.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wow, looks like the word got out about Coby Mayo. 
 

He might be the player I’m most excited about on this list. 

Wonder where that started? lol 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The interesting add here is the distribution chart at the end of each player summary (click where it says “expand”), which gives percentage chance of being a bust, a 40/45 guy, etc. up to 70+.    Here’s what they have for our six guys:

Rutschman: 30% 70+, 20% 65/70, 20% 50/55, 17.5% 40/45, 12.5% bust

Rodriguez: 20%, 25%, 25%, 15%, 15%

Hall: 7.5%, 15%, 25%, 27.5%, 25%

Cowser: 5%, 15%, 25%, 20%, 35%

Henderson: 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5%, 45%

Mayo: 7.5%, 10%, 22.5%, 20%, 40%

Odds are, not all these guys will pan out, despite their top 100 status.

But that's pretty common for the national top 100 lists. It's nice to see how they stack up against other team's prospects, but the odds are some of these guys are not going to pan out.

Also remember, Mancini, Means and Mullins never showed up on these lists.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson interview is up:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-baltimore-orioles-prospect-grayson-rodriguez/

Who knew spin rate doesn't really matter anymore?   I guess clock orientation has been pinpointed as the bigger thing.

98.5 > 95.7, though I wonder how much of that AVG was the 70 pitches/turn shackles of 2021.

Him or Bradish for the Norfolk opener?

 

Just to correct a bit, he was on an 80-pitch limit, not 70. Almost all of the minor league starters in the Orioles system were on that.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson interview is up:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-baltimore-orioles-prospect-grayson-rodriguez/

Who knew spin rate doesn't really matter anymore?   I guess clock orientation has been pinpointed as the bigger thing.

98.5 > 95.7, though I wonder how much of that AVG was the 70 pitches/turn shackles of 2021.

Him or Bradish for the Norfolk opener?

 

BTW, Laurila does an excellent job with these.

[Tony-OH]

Quote

Laurila: You’re widely-considered to be the best pitching prospect in the game. How are you reacting to that?

Rodriguez: “I try not to think about it. It’s just people’s opinions. I’ve kind of grown up over the years on both sides of the rankings and scouting reports. In high school, I was kind of a lesser-viewed prospect, especially before my senior year and even right before the draft. So I’ve kind of seen both sides of it. I know how it feels to be viewed as a top pitching prospect, and I know how it feels not to be. Really, it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t have any effect on my work.”

This is an excellent answer by the young man. He knows how good he is and doesn't need anyone telling him one way or the other. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

BTW, Laurila does an excellent job with these.

He’s one of my favorite baseball writers.   

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But that's pretty common for the national top 100 lists. It's nice to see how they stack up against other team's prospects, but the odds are some of these guys are not going to pan out.

Also remember, Mancini, Means and Mullins never showed up on these lists.

Yes.  It would be fun to see a distribution list like this for every player on Fangraphs’ O’s top 45 list and add them all up and see what you got.   

By the way, if players were graded in hindsight based on their career, what would Wieters be?  50 or 55?   60?
 

[btdart20]

I don't see how they have Grayson's ETA as 2023 and Hall's as 2022.  

A little "disappointed" to see Eury Perez slot in at #67.  Was hoping he would be a long shot in any MIA deal...  Young kid with a lot of upside.

Joey Bart is still on the list...  Feels like he's the eternal prospect!

[Sports Guy]

This current group of MiLers are extremely likable.  You see these guys on Twitter messing with each, having fun, showing love and respect, etc… 

I don’t recall that being at this level and this guys this well connected before but maybe I’m wrong.

Either way, they all seem to be really easy to root for, along with extremely talented.

[Sydnor]

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

Giving Hall a 55 FV. They must really believe he’s gonna stick as a SP. Very bold given the injury concerns. Our 50 FV guys just seemed to be ranked higher than other teams. 

In the chat Longenhagen essentially said they didn’t have a problem with ranking him that high because if he ends up in the bullpen, he could be like Hader.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects-chat/

Birdland: Looking at the outcome chart (love the feature btw) for DL Hall. Expected the risk of being a bust to be higher with his injury concerns. Is it low because of the thought that worst-case scenario he could turn into a reliever and be Josh Hader-esk?

1:12	Eric A Longenhagen: yerp

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  It would be fun to see a distribution list like this for every player on Fangraphs’ O’s top 45 list and add them all up and see what you got.   

By the way, if players were graded in hindsight based on their career, what would Wieters be?  50 or 55?   60?
 

That's a good question, but I'm not sure how Fangraphs does the FVs. Weiters at his best was probably a 55 player from a scouting standpoint, but not sure how they would value his career.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's a good question, but I'm not sure how Fangraphs does the FVs. Weiters at his best was probably a 55 player from a scouting standpoint, but not sure how they would value his career.

Fangraphs posted a pretty good explanation of their grading scale today. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-week-primer/   Based on what they said, I’d put Wieters at 55/60.     

[Frobby]

From the Fangraphs chat this afternoon:

zurzles: As an Orioles fan I’m glad to see him there, but I was certainly shocked to see Rodriguez at 3 (or ANY pitcher that high after the bit about Whitley/Gore/etc in the Primer). Is there any concern over his low pitch counts in the minors/that he could be exposed after being stretched out?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, maybe a little, But the quality of his stuff is absolutely overwhelming.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects-chat/