What's your Best Guess on O's Opening Day roster as ST begins

[wildcard]

Here is my:

CF  Mullins

2B  Urias 

DH Mancini

1B  Mountcastle

C Rutschman  - Probably a union grievance if he is not on the roster.  O's decide to go for the draft choices.

LF  Hays

RF Santander

3B Harrison - Could be Odor or Gutierrez but if Harrison is signed I think he out plays them both in ST.

SS Mateo   - 80 speed/60 arm wins the SS job in ST.

Bench - Nottingham/or FA, Gutierrez, McKenna, Stewart

Note:  Stowers promoted in June.

Means, Greinke, Lyles, Zimmerman, Lowther

Note:  Grayson makes 5 starts at AAA and is promoted on May 2nd vs the Twins.  He gets 22 O's starts for the season and is limited to 5 innings per start.   He is the best pitcher on the staff.

Bradish and Baumann also promoted in  May.

Pen: Sulser, T Wells, McHugh, Lopez, Scott, Tate, Fry or FA, A Wells

 

 

[waroriole]

I’m hoping they go for the draft picks and have Rutschman here on OD, but if he’s Top 2 in ROY we only have him for 5 years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them forego the possibility of another draft pick and get him for 6 years, or 7 if he’s not Top 2. 
 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I think that's reasonable, outside of Grienke.  Replace Greinke with an uninteresting lower tier starter.

3B- Gutierrez.

Rutschman not being on the opening day roster would be a crime.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’m hoping they go for the draft picks and have Rutschman here on OD, but if he’s Top 2 in ROY we only have him for 5 years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them forego the possibility of another draft pick and get him for 6 years, or 7 if he’s not Top 2. 
 

 

I don't think it works that way.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it works that way.

He would get an extra year of service time, right? If he’s on the OD roster, he only gets 6 years. If he’s Top 2, we only get 5. Of course, this is all new so I’m not sure exactly how it works. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He would get an extra year of service time, right? If he’s on the OD roster, he only gets 6 years. If he’s Top 2, we only get 5. Of course, this is all new so I’m not sure exactly how it works. 

Me neither.  I read it as any season that player X finishes in the top Y will count as a full year.

So if Adley gets called up three weeks into the season and plays at that level the 2022 season will count as a full season, giving the Orioles 5.95 years instead of 6.95 years.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He would get an extra year of service time, right? If he’s on the OD roster, he only gets 6 years. If he’s Top 2, we only get 5. Of course, this is all new so I’m not sure exactly how it works. 

No, he doesn’t lose a year of service time.  We still get him for 6.

The top 2 thing is if we bring him up 3 weeks into the season.  At that point we would have him for 7 years.  If he finishes top 2, we have him for 6.

[wildcard]

If Rutschman is as reported the O's will sign his to a long term deal.  The O's will be contenders by 2023/24.   They can trade him if they want but I don't think their strategy will be to trade him to avoid free agency.

Rutschman is to the O's what Wander Franco is to the Rays.

[waroriole]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, he doesn’t lose a year of service time.  We still get him for 6.

The top 2 thing is if we bring him up 3 weeks into the season.  At that point we would have him for 7 years.  If he finishes top 2, we have him for 6.

 

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Me neither.  I read it as any season that player X finishes in the top Y will count as a full year.

So if Adley gets called up three weeks into the season and plays at that level the 2022 season will count as a full season, giving the Orioles 5.95 years instead of 6.95 years.

Ok this makes more sense. Feels like it’s a good gamble to take. He has a good chance to finish Top 2 anyway, and if we can get an extra pick out of it, might as well try to generate goodwill with the best prospect in the minors. 

[Ripken]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

SS Mateo   - 80 speed/60 arm wins the SS job in ST.

 

You spelled Correa wrong.

 

[Just Regular]

C'mon.   Obviously he's RoY, we get the picks, but then he has to work on something at Norfolk in April 2023.   

Seriously, I trust that our staffer dedicated to economic theory is reading the fine print to ascertain exactly what supplemental picks using three full years of Adley Rutschman service time in 2022-2024 could gain for future drafts to inform the decision science of where he should play baseball next month.

My guess is trying for the 6.9 seasons will still be the move.   Baz, Witt, Torkelson, perhaps Julio Rodriguez and Riley Greene as well, are a lot of worthy contenders for Gold/Silver.    The appropriateness of Seiya Suzuki's rookie-dom will be debated, whichever league he ends up in.

I'll also guess a Supplemental 1st round pick as the richest prize your Rookie of the Year might earn, and wouldn't be shocked if it was 2nd or 3rd.    So on draft pedigree and our taste, perhaps a Gunnar/Westburg draftee vs. 2028 Arb4 control of Rutschman's age 30 season.    There is downside for the Club if you let him play 162 and he doesn't earn the perks.

[Moose Milligan]

If what brother @wildcardhas laid out, it's got a chance to be a decent (not spectacular) lineup.  

[interloper]

I'm confused because I don't see Correa?

[jamalshw]

I think the starting lineup is something like this: 

CF- Cedric Mullins

2B- Ramon Urias

C- Adley Rutschman

1B- Ryan Mountcastle

DH- Trey Mancini

RF- Anthony Santander

LF- Austin Hays

3B- Rougned Odor

SS- Jorge Mateo

 

I could see Guiterrez in place or either Odor or Mateo (with Odor going to 2B and Urias going to SS). I can also see Nottingham (or someone else at C if they keep Rutschman down). The order may be a bit different, too, particularly with Adley a bit lower to start his career, but given the names, that would be my order. The bench (if the above is the starting lineup) would likely be Guiterrez, McKenna, Stewart and Nottingham. 

I would love to add Correa to the mix which may cost Gutiérrez a roster spot, but put the chances of that somewhere below 1%. I could see someone like Harrison or another aging vet added to the mix. 

The pitching staff is where I see the most questions going into spring training. Means, Lyles and Zimmermann are in the rotation, but the last two spots could be Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann, a Free Agent...and the pen could include those that don't make the rotation along with some collection of Krehbiel, Perez, Baker, Mattson, etc along with the ones I expect to be included: T.Wells, Sulser, Scott, Tate, Lopez and Fry.  

[now]

Sorry but could someone explain simply how this "extra draft picks" thing works?