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Connolly looks at why Elias signed Lyles

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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2 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

The good news is he can throw a lot of innings.  The bad news is those innings won't be pretty.  🤣

 

What you wonder is, if those innings are crappy, will they keep him in games anyway?

Like, do you just look past mediocre and bad performances to just get the innings to save the young arms?  
 

He will obviously have some good starts and some just ok starts.  Those you keep him in as long as possible but what about the bad starts.  
 

It will be interesting to see if they just keep him out there often to protect arms.  

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Frobby
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The premise seems to be that you have to choose between pitchers who are healthy and pitchers that are good.  But I’ve heard that it is possible for a pitcher to be both.   

MurphDogg
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In 2004 the Orioles signed a 27-year-old starter coming off a 17 win season with a 118 ERA+ over 216 innings to a 3 year contract.

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Never overestimate the self-awareness of a professional athlete. 

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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7 minutes ago, interloper said:

They might now that the wall is moved back and once the O's are looking more like the Jays. But even in the good times the Orioles haven't been able to sign SPs. When Cobb is the biggest SP deal in franchise history, something is wrong. And that's when the team was good. In the 90s playoff years did they sign any big SPs? Nope. The perception has to change first. It's not about the money because someone will always be able to match or exceed the Orioles. 

Big name SPs do not come to play for the Orioles, no matter how much money is thrown at their feet. It's just not something that has ever happened. Elias is the first GM trying to finally address the perception of the ballpark. It's worth a shot. 

They haven’t signed pitching because they haven’t wanted to pay the price of pitching.  All of these other excuses are just window dressing.

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They haven’t signed pitching because they haven’t wanted to pay the price of pitching.  All of these other excuses are just window dressing.

That's your opinion, and that's fine. For me there's a much more deep-seeded thing that has always existed about playing against the Yankees in Camden Yards. It's not good for any pitcher's career. For top-flight SP, the O's would have to basically pay a guy like the Mets paid Scherzer, just wildly blow past the highest offer. It's unrealistic. 

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you wonder is, if those innings are crappy, will they keep him in games anyway?

Like, do you just look past mediocre and bad performances to just get the innings to save the young arms?  
 

He will obviously have some good starts and some just ok starts.  Those you keep him in as long as possible but what about the bad starts.  
 

It will be interesting to see if they just keep him out there often to protect arms.  

Let's remember, they might not be trying to win this year.  

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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4 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's your opinion, and that's fine. For me there's a much more deep-seeded thing that has always existed about playing against the Yankees in Camden Yards. It's not good for any pitcher's career. For top-flight SP, the O's would have to basically pay a guy like the Mets paid Scherzer, just wildly blow past the highest offer. It's unrealistic. 

Yea, those things definitely exist..which is why you have to pay more.

So yes, it goes back to money and desire to do it.

BTW, I largely agree with them on their stance here.  

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We know they want Lyles for innings.  That has always been obvious.  If he can give the team even 160 innings in 2022, that would be fine.   After all, that is all you are paying for.

You aren’t paying for production because you know it won’t be that great. 
 

 

He doesn't have a great history of getting to 160 innings is the thing.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's remember, they might not be trying to win this year.  

Exactly..that’s why I wonder if they will care. 
 

In about 1/3 of his starts last year, he gave up 5 or more runs.  I would expect that number to be similar this year as well.  In 3 of those 9 starts, he went at least 5 innings.

Do the Orioles say, F it.  Unless you are getting completely bombed early on, we are throwing you 5+ innings every game.  I think I would.  If you are down 5-0 in the third, you are basically done for the night anyway.  I know you can come back but for the most, you are done.  So do you say, we are going to get those extra few innings out of you and if that means we lose 10-2, so be it. But we are saving arms and getting the innings from you that we are paying you to get.

I honestly don’t think that’s a bad strategy, at least the first half of the season.

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly..that’s why I wonder if they will care. 
 

In about 1/3 of his starts last year, he gave up 5 or more runs.  I would expect that number to be similar this year as well.  In 3 of those 9 starts, he went at least 5 innings.

Do the Orioles say, F it.  Unless you are getting completely bombed early on, we are throwing you 5+ innings every game.  I think I would.  If you are down 5-0 in the third, you are basically done for the night anyway.  I know you can come back but for the most, you are done.  So do you say, we are going to get those extra few innings out of you and if that means we lose 10-2, so be it. But we are saving arms and getting the innings from you that we are paying you to get.

I honestly don’t think that’s a bad strategy, at least the first half of the season.

Hey man, they moved the LF wall back.  That's gotta account for something.  

I agree, he's gotta get 5 innings every start no matter how bad he gets bombed early.  

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He doesn't have a great history of getting to 160 innings is the thing.

The important thing is that he while he was with Houston (when Elias was paying attention), between the Majors and minors, he threw 144.2 innings in 2009, 158.2 in 2010, 156.1 in 2011, 182 in 2012, and 165.1 in 2013.

The main reason he hasn't regularly thrown 160+ innings in the majors is that he arguably isn't good enough to be a Major League starting pitcher.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

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Just now, MurphDogg said:

The important thing is that he while he was with Houston (when Elias was paying attention), between the Majors and minors, he threw 144.2 innings in 2009, 158.2 in 2010, 156.1 in 2011, 182 in 2012, and 165.1 in 2013.

The main reason he hasn't regularly thrown 160+ innings in the majors is that he arguably isn't good enough to be a Major League starting pitcher.

The O's have not shown a willingness to hang a starter out to dry.  Also including the minors he still wasn't regularly hitting 160.

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geschinger Veteran All-Star

geschinger

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What you wonder is, if those innings are crappy, will they keep him in games anyway?

Like, do you just look past mediocre and bad performances to just get the innings to save the young arms?  
 

He will obviously have some good starts and some just ok starts.  Those you keep him in as long as possible but what about the bad starts.  
 

It will be interesting to see if they just keep him out there often to protect arms.  

I'm guessing they'll use him similar to how Texas did.  There were only a couple of games where he got pulled under 80 pitches due to performance and even in his worst games they still left him on average between 90 and 100 pitches in those starts.

He had 13 quality starts last year and gave up 4 or fewer runs in 23 of his starts.   Even if he's as bad overall in 2022 as he was in 2021 if he can do similar I think the Orioles consider a worthwhile signing.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

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36 minutes ago, interloper said:

But even in the good times the Orioles haven't been able to sign SPs.

I'm not going back right now to see how we acquired Kevin Brown, Scott Erickson, Jimmy Key and David Wells, and I know the financials are different now than they used to be, but we do have a history of getting big time pitchers into Baltimore.

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The premise seems to be that you have to choose between pitchers who are healthy and pitchers that are good.  But I’ve heard that it is possible for a pitcher to be both.   

Challenge: Find me a pitcher who pitched in the majors for a long time and was never hurt.

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