Drew Rom 2022

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

If you're going to put a number on it I probably think it's higher than your number but solid in this relative sense would still be a pretty low number.  I certainly don't think he has an above 50% chance of making it as a ML starter.

I guess, my point, is my evaluation of him hasn't been altered all that much this year.  He hasn't had a breakout season, but again, he hasn't imo "pitched himself off" of being considered a prospect.

It also kinda depends on how you define "making it as a ML starter".

He has a solid chance to make it in the way that Spenser Watkins has made it. And that would be an excellent outcome for a 4th round pick!

He has maybe a 5 percent chance of making 100 career MLB starts.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It also kinda depends on how you define "making it as a ML starter".

He has a solid chance to make it in the way that Spenser Watkins has made it. And that would be an excellent outcome for a 4th round pick!

He has maybe a 5 percent chance of making 100 career MLB starts.

This is all true as well.

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How are you defining solid?  I’d say his chances are 5% at best.

Well, he’s an Orioles pitching prospect, so that means 5% chance of being a solid starter is a top prospect for us.   

What were the odds for Lowther, Baumann, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, Bradish?  What were the odds for John Means?  David Hess?  Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright?

Honestly I’m not sure where Rom falls on this spectrum.   I was pretty bullish on him going into the year.   I feel like he hasn’t taken the step forward I’d hoped for, but he hasn’t taken a big step backwards either.  He did miss a couple of weeks for unexplained reasons (COVID?  A minor injury?).   I could see him having 3-4 sharp outings in a row and being right where you’d want him to be.   Or, not.  
 

[LookinUp]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

If you're going to put a number on it I probably think it's higher than your number but solid in this relative sense would still be a pretty low number.  I certainly don't think he has an above 50% chance of making it as a ML starter.

I guess, my point, is my evaluation of him hasn't been altered all that much this year.  He hasn't had a breakout season, but again, he hasn't imo "pitched himself off" of being considered a prospect.

For me, and just for now, he's taken a step backwards this year. 

Now, I could definitely be wrong. This could be SSS performance, caused by some basic ailment or developmental step he's focused on, and that disappears soon. I'm not saying that's impossible.

But going into this year, he was fringy as a prospect in my eyes basically because of his velo. I think Tony's write-ups on him were bullish, and totally respect that given his history with Zach Davies. I just think it's very hard to make that leap into something like a John Means without your profile really maximizing its potential, and he hasn't done that yet this year.

[Pickles]

Just now, LookinUp said:

For me, and just for now, he's taken a step backwards this year. 

Now, I could definitely be wrong. This could be SSS performance, caused by some basic ailment or developmental step he's focused on, and that disappears soon. I'm not saying that's impossible.

But going into this year, he was fringy as a prospect in my eyes basically because of his velo. I think Tony's write-ups on him were bullish, and totally respect that given his history with Zach Davies. I just think it's very hard to make that leap into something like a John Means without your profile really maximizing its potential, and he hasn't done that yet this year.

Well if the issue is velo, and presumably missing bats, then aren't you heartened by the 11 k/9 rate?

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well if the issue is velo, and presumably missing bats, then aren't you heartened by the 11 k/9 rate?

A little? 

I'm pretty convinced that this development team is nearly maximizing the ability to miss bats. I'm still more interested in the profile.

But, to your point, this development team seems to give a wider range of profiles a believable pathway to success at higher levels.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

A little? 

I'm pretty convinced that this development team is nearly maximizing the ability to miss bats. I'm still more interested in the profile.

But, to your point, this development team seems to give a wider range of profiles a believable pathway to success at higher levels.

I worry about is that high K rate is what is producing the high BB rate- meaning he's chasing Ks at the expense of efficiency and strike throwing- and so it is a bit illusory.  

We'll see as he keeps moving up the ladder.  But that's kind of my point: That was my position three months ago and not much has changed.

[Just Regular]

I saw the in game box after the 5 shutout at Somerset and was almost back in hype mode.

His draft year I believe he was near the Top 10 bonuses given to high school arms, and as a LHP I hope it helps the raw play.

Maybe this year is consolidation and not another step forward, but with Kjerstad having made it to the first stepping stone, Rom's second half is high up on the list of things I'm not sure about to watch unfold.

Here's how his pedigree compares with the line of lefty hits and misses:

Lowther NCAA 2-74, $800k

Zimmermann NCAA 5-140, $10,000    (today I learned Zimm was a We Went Overslot on someone else offset)

Akin NCAA 2-54, $1.2mm

Means, NCAA 11-331, no bonus given on B-Ref 11th round page for that draft year

Rom, High School, 4-115, $600k

The old regime seemed to have pretty good taste in high school pitchers.    Last night the pregame show had a feature on Mancini's minor league years (had some video of the 21-year-old Ironbird back in the day I'd never seen), and a highlight of it was Trey and Yaz leading the Baysox to their Eastern League championship.    Hoping Rom can make good use of the first half flush and get another crack at it this year.

 

[Just Regular]

7/0 K/BB in five shutout innings on the road maybe his best game of the year.

https://www.milb.com/gameday/baysox-vs-flying-squirrels/2022/07/23/672406#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=672406

Baysox continue to enjoy split-season reset and postseason possibilities for Rom-Cowser-Kjerstad.    I hope their Grayson ringer isn't more than another few weeks away.

[Gentile4]

If there's one thing I've learned from watching baseball seriously for over 50 years, it's that minor league performance isn't always a good predictor. Means' minor league numbers weren't all that great, certainly no better than Rom's. Rom has 110 innings at AA and been relatively successful. Why wait to move him to Norfolk? Let's see what we have. I don't understand the reluctance to move guys along. Cal, Eddie, and Brooks had really nice minor league careers, but their minor league numbers certainly didn't scream out HOF. They were all up at 21 for their ML debuts. If it's about service time with a guy like Rom, then I can only shake my head.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

If there's one thing I've learned from watching baseball seriously for over 50 years, it's that minor league performance isn't always a good predictor. Means' minor league numbers weren't all that great, certainly no better than Rom's. Rom has 110 innings at AA and been relatively successful. Why wait to move him to Norfolk? Let's see what we have. I don't understand the reluctance to move guys along. Cal, Eddie, and Brooks had really nice minor league careers, but their minor league numbers certainly didn't scream out HOF. They were all up at 21 for their ML debuts. If it's about service time with a guy like Rom, then I can only shake my head.

It’s not at all about service time with a guy like Rom.   He may get promoted but it’s not like he’s set the world on fire this year or has overwhelming stuff.   I’d call his season a mixed bag and a mild disappointment so far considering how strongly he finished last season.  

[Gentile4]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s not at all about service time with a guy like Rom.   He may get promoted but it’s not like he’s set the world on fire this year or has overwhelming stuff.   I’d call his season a mixed bag and a mild disappointment so far considering how strongly he finished last season.  

Agree about the service time; I just hope the FO isn't thinking about that. I'm a little more encouraged than you are about his progress, but when you look at the pitching across the Eastern League, he's certainly among the top pitchers. Maybe not top 10, but he'll be 23 next season, and I just don't see the point of slow rolling all these top prospects. He's got 110 innings at AA, and if he moves soon, he could get 40-45 at Norfolk in 2022 and start there next season. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Agree about the service time; I just hope the FO isn't thinking about that. I'm a little more encouraged than you are about his progress, but when you look at the pitching across the Eastern League, he's certainly among the top pitchers. Maybe not top 10, but he'll be 23 next season, and I just don't see the point of slow rolling all these top prospects. He's got 110 innings at AA, and if he moves soon, he could get 40-45 at Norfolk in 2022 and start there next season. 

I think he has a decent chance of getting promoted.  He’s been kind of inconsistent and it would be nice to see him string together 2-3 good outings in a row.   He’s only thrown three games all year where he pitched at least 5 innings and allowed 0 or 1 runs.  Last year he did that 12 times, including 6 out of 7 starts immediately before he was promoted.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Rom has been promoted to Norfolk.

 

[Just Regular]

AAA debut a mixed bag - just 1 run and 9 strikeouts in 4.2 innings, but also four walks.