Orioles Minor League pitching development

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd like to get excited about Baumler, but he's 17 months out from surgery, 20 years old, and could not make a full season club. 

He's either a very slow healer, much more raw than thought of when drafted, tweaked something and they're hiding it, or he's on the slowest rehab program known to professional pitching. 

He was pitching against competition at the beginning of minor league spring so something happened or Sig's magic 8-ball computer spelled out the exact date for Baumler to pitch against hitters in the minors and we haven't reached it yet.

 You seem to really have soured on the whole front office approach these days. A lot of your posts contain phrases like "Sig's magic computer" or "state secrets", or just seem kind of flippant about their whole process. That's not me criticizing you at all. I definitely understand some of that. 

For me, I just don't know that it's time for that level of cynicism just yet. I think there are a lot of successes to point to, and it's still pretty early in the front office tenure to come to many conclusions (drafting in particular, I think). Elias and Sig have both said it's not an exact science, so I think they're just trying to follow what they think is best based on a combination of data evidence (haven't we been asking for this for awhile?) and more traditional scouting/player interaction. 

I know you're not a personal fan of some of the people in charge, like Matt Blood, etc., and for fair reasons. Anyway, this isn't me trying to change your opinion, it's just definitely notable how much the board overall has swayed towards being critical of the front office lately. I'd chalk most of it up to a feeling that things should be farther along than they are, so it's fair to ask if there are things that aren't working (draft strategy, development, somewhat conservative approach to promotions, etc). 

For me, I think I have so much patience because I continue to be so relieved at there being an overall unified plan/vision. It's been something I've wanted to see in this organization for 20 years. Even in the good years with Buck, the sense was that they were holding the thing together with duct tape and Elmer's glue. You had Peter Angelos, Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter, and Brady Anderson all pulling in different directions. We made picks like Matt Hobgood. We did things like trading Josh Hader and a comp pick for Bud Norris. We got kicked out of South Korea. I dunno. It's hard for me to look back at that and feel like we're not miles ahead of where we were. So I hope Elias can string together some successes to pump some faith back into what they're doing. Like I've said elsewhere, if they don't, I'll be there to criticize them fairly as well. But I have a lot of patience left at the moment still. 

[LookinUp]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

... Sig's magic 8-ball computer spelled out the exact date for Baumler to pitch against hitters in the minors and we haven't reached it yet.

I would absolutely not doubt that Sig has Baumler on a program to build up his arm in a closely managed environment so they can focus on making sure the build-up in stuff/innings isn't accompanied by the development of other high stress mechanics.

And I'm fine with that. 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, interloper said:

 You seem to really have soured on the whole front office approach these days. A lot of your posts contain phrases like "Sig's magic computer" or "state secrets", or just seem kind of flippant about their whole process. That's not me criticizing you at all. I definitely understand some of that. 

For me, I just don't know that it's time for that level of cynicism just yet. I think there are a lot of successes to point to, and it's still pretty early in the front office tenure to come to many conclusions (drafting in particular, I think). Elias and Sig have both said it's not an exact science, so I think they're just trying to follow what they think is best based on a combination of data evidence (haven't we been asking for this for awhile?) and more traditional scouting/player interaction. 

I know you're not a personal fan of some of the people in charge, like Matt Blood, etc., and for fair reasons. Anyway, this isn't me trying to change your opinion, it's just definitely notable how much the board overall has swayed towards being critical of the front office lately. I'd chalk most of it up to a feeling that things should be farther along than they are, so it's fair to ask if there are things that aren't working (draft strategy, development, somewhat conservative approach to promotions, etc). 

For me, I think I have so much patience because I continue to be so relieved at there being an overall unified plan/vision. It's been something I've wanted to see in this organization for 20 years. Even in the good years with Buck, the sense was that they were holding the thing together with duct tape and Elmer's glue. You had Peter Angelos, Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter, and Brady Anderson all pulling in different directions. We made picks like Matt Hobgood. We did things like trading Josh Hader and a comp pick for Bud Norris. We got kicked out of South Korea. I dunno. It's hard for me to look back at that and feel like we're not miles ahead of where we were. So I hope Elias can string together some successes to pump some faith back into what they're doing. Like I've said elsewhere, if they don't, I'll be there to criticize them fairly as well. But I have a lot of patience left at the moment still. 

Lots of fair analysis here. I certainly won't argue that the organization is better off as a whole, especially the system. However, I just see such a lack of care about the fans in this process. Whether it's the awful penny pinching decisions or just their flippant ways of dealing with the fand]s through their lack of transprarency with news and information through the media, it's just very cold and impersonal.

At the end of the day, only wins at the major league level will make fans care. 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I would absolutely not doubt that Sig has Baumler on a program to build up his arm in a closely managed environment so they can focus on making sure the build-up in stuff/innings isn't accompanied by the development of other high stress mechanics.

And I'm fine with that. 

That's fine, but I'd rather go with what medical science and MLB organiztions have done for years. I don't think the kid gets better twiddling his thumbs in Sarasota.

[Frobby]

I feel like this has been a good reverse jinx thread the last three days since it was posted.   Lots of good pitching performances the last three days.

[Ripken]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Lots of fair analysis here. I certainly won't argue that the organization is better off as a whole, especially the system. However, I just see such a lack of care about the fans in this process. Whether it's the awful penny pinching decisions or just their flippant ways of dealing with the fand]s through their lack of transprarency with news and information through the media, it's just very cold and impersonal.

At the end of the day, only wins at the major league level will make fans care. 

I hated how the old regime operated.  I knew the DD years were going to flame out in wild fashion.  I pushed for selling off much earlier than we did, never wanted to give up high picks for bad FA starters, and all that.  I was thrilled we got Elias, hopeful that the son(s) would learn from dad's mistakes, and couldn't wait to watch a complete organizational rebuild.  I said when he was hired in late '18 I'd give Elias four years.  He hits that mark this November.  Of course, no one knew a pandemic was coming either.  The DR complex looks great.  Still, after three years of being a pollyanna, I have some serious concerns and my tune has changed rather drastically in the last couple weeks now that we are yet again staring at a 100 loss (or, at best, 90) season.

The farm system has some really nice players and the 1-1 pick coming.  Awesome.  It's fair to mention some of those top prospects were already here, too.  Still, if 2023 was going to be the first competitive year, at least one good FA should have been added this spring and some of these kids should've already seen Baltimore.  We did nothing.  It's another slow motion season, very likely pushing any real contention back to 2024 now.  That's just too long. 

They won't spend any money, they're slow to promote, they won't tell us anything, the Orioles stink, MASN sucks (and that legal mess hangs around), there's no long term agreement with the city, questions about selling the franchise linger, that LF wall is awful, the Aberdeen situation is a mess (poor Frederick)... I mean, how many people are in the Camden Yards or tuned in at home?  Gotta be historically low numbers.  They're making it incredibly difficult to care. 

What the hell kind of triceps injury does Adley have?  I hope the Means injury wasn't misdiagnosed.  I did not like the Kjerstad and Cowser picks, though I will of course root for those kids to become all stars.  Heston, I mean that's nobody's fault, but what a huge bummer.  I did not like ignoring drafting pitchers and, yes, there are other ways of acquiring them.  It goes on and on for me and others.  The only cure at this point is some winning.  I'm very patient but it's been 39 years and the vast majority of those were bad.  Let's freaking go already.

[Tony-OH]

We know the Orioles under Elias are very, very careful with their injured players and that their program for pitching is for their pitchers to throw the least amount of pitches as possible. We will see if this careful risk adverse program will help them develop good pitchers that are less injury prone when they reach the majors.

As for pitch counts, despite full spring trainings, here are the pitch counts for the top pitching prospects so far:

Grayson Rodriguez: 61 & 67 
Kyle Bradish (not a full spring training: 58 & 68
Drew Rom: 67 & 74
Jean Pinto: 52 & 68
Zac Lowther: 63 & 46 (who know what they are doing with Lowther once again brining him in for relief late in a game and only getting 46 pitches)
Brandon Young: 75 & 79 (why is he at 79 and Rodriguez at 67?)
Antonio Velez: 68 & 80
Kyle Brnovich: 68 & 76

So it's interesting that Grayson Rodriguez is throwing less pitches than most of the top starting pitching prospects besides Bradish who had a shorter spring training.


 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So it's interesting that Grayson Rodriguez is throwing less pitches than most of the top starting pitching prospects besides Bradish who had a shorter spring training.
 

I'd guess this has more to do with how many pitches they start an inning with versus how many they end up with. Could also include factors such as air temperature.

 

[Gentile4]

For a team that asks its fans to buy into the next gen players, the lack of transparency and information. has become quite problematic for me. Providing regular, specific updates about the progress of guys like AR or Hall is not giving away state secrets. Stating that guys like Bradish need to be stretched out into the 6th/7th inning before being called up is ridiculous. Who do we have on the ML roster now that's doing that? Means certainly wasn't. If they can go 4-5, that's enough. I've given Elias the benefit of the doubt, but my patience is wearing thin.