The LF wall tracker

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with the latter and I’m fine with your choice on the former.   So, I’d say Hardy was our last extension, and just barely, because he was only a few weeks away from becoming a free agent.  For someone who was extended before the final season before free agency I think you’d have to go back to O’Day after 2012.

So most folks wouldn't say it happens a lot.

[deward]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Aren’t park factors basically calculated by looking at how a team and its opponents did at the home ballpark vs. on the road?  If so, it seems like the park factors shouldn’t depend on  if the pitching staff was good or bad.  Obviously there will be some random variation from one year to another.  

You would think, but the figures seem to bear out some correlation between PF (or at least, the HR portion) and the quality of the pitching staff. For example, the 2021 HR PF for OPCY is the highest since 2001 (as far back as ESPN goes); I think that's based on a 3 year average, which would seem to align with the abysmal pitching staffs the O's have thrown out there recently. That's sort of apart from my main point, which was that pitching in a comparable bandbox doesn't stop every team from developing good pitchers, so I don't know that OPCY works as a scapegoat for the O's pitching woes.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So most folks wouldn't say it happens a lot.

Not recently.  From, say, 1997 you had Ripken twice, Mussina, Erickson, Anderson, Roberts, Markakis, Hardy, Jones, O’Day, Hardy again.   

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

You would think, but the figures seem to bear out some correlation between PF (or at least, the HR portion) and the quality of the pitching staff. For example, the 2021 HR PF for OPCY is the highest since 2001 (as far back as ESPN goes); I think that's based on a 3 year average, which would seem to align with the abysmal pitching staffs the O's have thrown out there recently. That's sort of apart from my main point, which was that pitching in a comparable bandbox doesn't stop every team from developing good pitchers, so I don't know that OPCY works as a scapegoat for the O's pitching woes.

What about the fact that Orioles offense hit 122 homers at home and 73 on the road last year?   That’s certainly got nothing to do with the quality of our pitching staff.   

I certainly agree that a good pitcher can develop just fine pitching in a hitter friendly stadium.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not recently.  From, say, 1997 you had Ripken twice, Mussina, Erickson, Anderson, Roberts, Markakis, Hardy, Jones, O’Day, Hardy again.   

I'll go along with the idea that over two distinct stretches the O's have periods in which they've extended players.  But without looking at other teams that doesn't seem like a lot for 25 years.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll go along with the idea that over two distinct stretches the O's have periods in which they've extended players.  But without looking at other teams that doesn't seem like a lot for 25 years.

Yeah, I really have no idea how it compares with other teams.  

[deward]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What about the fact that Orioles offense hit 122 homers at home and 73 on the road last year?   That’s certainly got nothing to do with the quality of our pitching staff.   

I certainly agree that a good pitcher can develop just fine pitching in a hitter friendly stadium.   
 

That split is definitely on the extreme side, almost to the point of feeling a little flukey. In 2014 the Home/Away split for HR was basically even. For 2014-2020, the split averages out to 54%/46%, then in 2021 it skyrockets to 63%/37%. I'm not sure what the reason for that would be, other than randomness. In 2020 it was 51%/49%. 

[Ripken]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guess a lot can mean a bunch of different things but I wouldn't use it to describe the O's history of extending players.

Who was the last player they extended?

You wouldn't expect any real deals being handed out the last few seasons.  When they were last competitive, they gave contracts to Jones, Hardy, Davis, Trumbo at least.  

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Ripken said:

You wouldn't expect any real deals being handed out the last few seasons.  When they were last competitive, they gave contracts to Jones, Hardy, Davis, Trumbo at least.  

They didn't extend Davis or Trumbo.

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They didn't extend Davis or Trumbo.

And I think that's the other issue: Semantics.

Plenty are willing to think of signing "hometown" guys on the FA market as basically an extension.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

And I think that's the other issue: Semantics.

Plenty are willing to think of signing "hometown" guys on the FA market as basically an extension.

Do you think the O's got a "Hometown discount" on either the Trumbo or Davis deals?

They looked to me, at the time, as significant overpays and that's before factoring in the loss of a draft pick.

The players were Free Agents.  Any advantage the O's had was due to the presence of a Qualifying Offer.

They did not extend.  If they were interested in signing a team friendly deal they could have done so before hitting Free Agency.  They explored the Free Agent market and decided that Baltimore offered the best terms.

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think the O's got a "Hometown discount" on either the Trumbo or Davis deals?

They looked to me, at the time, as significant overpays and that's before factoring in the loss of a draft pick.

The players were Free Agents.  Any advantage the O's had was due to the presence of a Qualifying Offer.

They did not extend.  If they were interested in signing a team friendly deal they could have done so before hitting Free Agency.  They explored the Free Agent market and decided that Baltimore offered the best terms.

I'm just saying some people may consider a guy who reaches FA but signs directly with the O's to be "extended."

I suspect any significant disagreement in the frequency of extensions would largely stem from those different perspectives, which is largely semantic.

[fansince1988]

Wall saved us a run tonight, that low line drive by Stanton was a HR last year. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, fansince1988 said:

Wall saved us a run tonight, that low line drive by Stanton was a HR last year. 

 

1 hour ago, fansince1988 said:

Wall saved us a run tonight, that low line drive by Stanton was a HR last year. 

387 feet, exit velocity 114 mph.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

387 feet, exit velocity 114 mph.

 

114 mph!  Did it hit the wall?  Balls hit that hard usually go 450 feet.