Austin Hays 2022

[interloper]

16 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

This guy is on fire.  2 for 2 with another double so far.  

I know this sounds backwards, but I'd look to give him a day off ASAP. That's a lot of running and, well, you know. 

[Frobby]

.327/.403/.500.   Go back to the first page or two and the overreactions to Hays’ slow first week look pretty silly.   Hope this hot streak can continue for a while.  

[SteveA]

Just now, Frobby said:

.327/.403/.500.   Go back to the first page or two and the overreactions to Hays’ slow first week look pretty silly.   Hope this hot streak can continue for a while.  

Love to see that 3/4/5 line!    In the 2020s that is analagous to what ".300, 30 HR, 100 RBI" was in the 70s to set apart a star player.

[Just Regular]

23 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Love to see that 3/4/5 line!    In the 2020s that is analagous to what ".300, 30 HR, 100 RBI" was in the 70s to set apart a star player.

Now we just need to adjust it for 2022 making 1968 look like 1930

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

There was concern with Hays last season because of his stat line against RHP was .221/.283/.400 in 2021 vs .308/.346/51 against LHP. 

This season (through 5/08) that has flipped with Hays putting up a .351/.417/.541 against RHP and .222/.323/.333 against LHP. Granted it's been a SSS so far, but I was never that concerned that Hays would be a relegated to hitting primarily against LHP.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=haysau01&year=2022&t=b

[oldfan]

Call me old school, OBP is a little overated. Unless the bases are full a walk doesn't drive in a run. If Mountcastle can hit .280, 30 hr and 90-100 rbi, I'll take it.

[OriolesMagic83]

9 hours ago, interloper said:

I know this sounds backwards, but I'd look to give him a day off ASAP. That's a lot of running and, well, you know. 

Could get a triceps injury from hitting so many balls hard.

[Just Regular]

Here are the terms of this streak.   Austin Hays keeps getting on base multiple times every game - I'll keep copy pasting this every morning.    Hot streaks are fun.    Watch out for TBD tonight, you and the boys can handle this pitcher.

Offensive WAR

1.Trout • LAA 1.9

2.Ramirez • CLE 1.9

3.Franco • TBR 1.8

4.Crawford • SEA 1.8

5.Ward • LAA 1.7

6.Hays • BAL 1.5

Judge • NYY 1.5

8.Anderson • CHW 1.4

9.Buxton • MIN 1.4

10.Bogaerts • BOS 1.3

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, oldfan said:

Call me old school, OBP is a little overated. Unless the bases are full a walk doesn't drive in a run. If Mountcastle can hit .280, 30 hr and 90-100 rbi, I'll take it.

I think OBP is rated just right these days.   Guys who walk score runs.  Guys who walk push other runners up a base where it’s easier for them to score.   Guys who walk don’t use up precious outs.  We know very well what the value of a walk is — not as valuable as a hit, but way way more valuable than an out.  And the value can be measured pretty accurately by looking at hundreds of thousands of games.   We know pretty much exactly how much a walk is worth vs. a single, double, etc.   On average, a walk is worth .55 runs more than an out, .15 runs less than a single, .45 runs less than a double, 1.27 runs less than a triple, 1.65 runs less than a homer.    Source

As to Mountcastle hitting .280 with 30 homers and 90-100 RBI, that would be a pretty nice upgrade on last year when he hit .255 with 89 RBI.  But I’ll still care about his OBP, because making outs is bad.  

[oldfan]

Making productive outs is something this team is terrible at. Like a lead off double and the guy is still standing there after a popup and two strikeouts.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, oldfan said:

Making productive outs is something this team is terrible at. Like a lead off double and the guy is still standing there after a popup and two strikeouts.

This is true so far this year.   BB-ref tracks so-called “productive outs” which they define as follows:

Successful Sac for a pitcher with one out.
Advancing any runner with none out.
Driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning.

The O’s have done this only 24.8% of the time, 12th in the league and well below league average of 29.1%.   But it should be noted that even though the O’s are below average, the entire league makes unproductive outs over 70% of the time on average.    

[Frobby]

Huge pinch hit by Hays with two outs in the 9th to tie this game today.   I mentioned in the game thread, Hays always seems to have very good at bats in key late game situations.   I’m always comfortable having him up there when it counts.   

And, by the way, he nailed another runner at the plate on Friday night to help us win that one.   

To me, he’s a really fun, dynamic player.   I know there’s some risk, but I’d be happy if the O’s extended him.

 

[yark14]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Huge pinch hit by Hays with two outs in the 9th to tie this game today.   I mentioned in the game thread, Hays always seems to have very good at bats in key late game situations.   I’m always comfortable having him up there when it counts.   

And, by the way, he nailed another runner at the plate on Friday night to help us win that one.   

To me, he’s a really fun, dynamic player.   I know there’s some risk, but I’d be happy if the O’s extended him.

 

I agree on extending him.  He is a workhorse, not only in games but in preparing himself physically.  I think with his work ethic he'll still be a strong player into his early 30's, so might as well try to extend him and build around him.  He'll have the occasional pulled hamstring or injury from crashing into the wall, but that is more than worth it.

[Just Regular]

Pregame show just had a graphic highlighting his 2022 improvement against breaking stuff.

Late 2021 his ability to crush fastballs was a notable strength.   I hadn't appreciated some of his this year improvement was vs. the bendy stuff.   Highlight segment included the clutch hit off Ryan Thompson and his underhand breaking ball, along with the hit in the Cole rally last night.

2021 - 184 avg/340 slg/41% whiff against breaking balls

2022 - 358 avg/566 slg/27% whiff

[Moose Milligan]

1-4 in the first game, 2-5 in the second.

.297/.361/.455

He's certainly making a case for himself to be a core player in this rebuild and I'm here to eat my crow.  Douse it in Old Bay or some wing sauce, please.