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Gunnar Henderson 2022

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By Just Regular
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ShoelesJoe All-Star

ShoelesJoe

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51 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Once Colton Cowser in in the lineup, he's our best leadoff hitter. Cowser/Adley/Gunnar sequence is going to eat starting pitchers alive.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a year from now the top of our lineup looked something like this:

Norby

Cowser

Rutschman

Henderson

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emmett16
emmett16

I got a chance to see Henderson play in person for the first time today.  I’ve watched dozens of his games on TV but hadn’t had a chance to see him play live.   My observations are the following:

OsFanSinceThe80s
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Frobby
Frobby

I learned a ton watching him today.  The kid is fearless and carries himself like a big leaguer.   You can see all the tools are there.   Honestly, I was even impressed by him spoiling an 0-2 pitch an

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ShoelesJoe All-Star

ShoelesJoe

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On 9/22/2022 at 7:28 AM, Sports Guy said:

Would the Os go with a Westburg/Norby/Ortiz/Henderson IF?

Thats a scenario where none of them have to be traded.  The question is, are you getting the proper value out of Westburg if he’s a first baseman Vs trading him in that scenario?

IMO the real question is how much offense will our AAA prospects provide at the major league level? Westburg has an .889 OPS in Norfolk, and that makes it sound like he'd be a plus bat in the big leagues. But that .889 is just a tick above what Ryan McKenna, DJ Stewart, and Tyler Nevin have done for the Tides this year, and way below wet-noodle bat Brett Phillips' 1.164 OPS. 

So what kind of offensive production can we expect from Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby if/when they make it to the show? Are there reliable ways to calculate that based on minor league performance? If Westburg can put up an .820-ish OPS at 1B that probably makes him a better option than the current version of Mountcastle. But what if he's just another Tyler Nevin? Are we really going to put all our 1B eggs in that basket? Speaking for myself (knowing its not my money) I'd rather sign Jose Abreu for a couple three years, or else leave Mountcastle alone and hope he finds his consistent stroke again. 

The ages of our AAA prospects should certainly be a factor in deciding who gets promoted and who gets dealt. Henderson was the youngest player on the Tides, and he not only succeeded at AAA but has seemed to make the transition to the majors without skipping a beat. The fact that Norby is killing it while also being among the youngest on the team (almost a year and a half younger than Westburg and two years younger than Ortiz) makes me think he should be considered a more valuable prospect than either of those two, defense be damned. Is it my imagination, or does Westburg have a shine on him that has so far eluded Ortiz and Norby? He's currently listed as the MLB #78 prospect, and his HR/RBI totals this year should raise his stock even higher. Does that make him more likely to get dealt, or more likely to get promoted? 

The choices wrt Norby, Ortiz, Westburg, Vavra, Mateo, and Urias reminds me of the Hairston vs Roberts kerfuffle from twenty years ago. Only that was two guys circling one chair. This is six guys with three chairs (one as a UIF). History shows the Orioles made the right 2B choice two decades ago. Here's hoping Elias does likewise this offseason. 

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On 9/23/2022 at 1:15 PM, ShoelesJoe said:

IMO the real question is how much offense will our AAA prospects provide at the major league level? Westburg has an .889 OPS in Norfolk, and that makes it sound like he'd be a plus bat in the big leagues. But that .889 is just a tick above what Ryan McKenna, DJ Stewart, and Tyler Nevin have done for the Tides this year, and way below wet-noodle bat Brett Phillips' 1.164 OPS. 

So what kind of offensive production can we expect from Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby if/when they make it to the show? Are there reliable ways to calculate that based on minor league performance? 

I suspect that Elias and Sig have data and models that provide them with forecasts that are more reliable than you could get by merely looking at a minor league slash line and K/BB data.  But at the end of the day, it’s always going to be somewhat unpredictable whose skills translate against big league pitching, and how quickly.  

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