Cionel Perez 2022

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Relievers are fungible assets. The O's clearly have a formula to identify guys who are available at a low cost and deliver quality innings. Credit to Sig and company to find them and the PCs to get them to perform. The performance of the bullpen this year really points to the maturation of the organization as a whole. 

It's worked great this year, great.

But what about 2019-2021?

The bullpen wasn't particularly good in any of those years.

Did the system just take a few years to come online?

So is this a one year blip?  Is it sustainable?

I don't know.

[Jim'sKid26]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's worked great this year, great.

But what about 2019-2021?

The bullpen wasn't particularly good in any of those years.

Did the system just take a few years to come online?

So is this a one year blip?  Is it sustainable?

I don't know.

I think we have to see moving forward. The analytics department has matured over the period you state. Perhaps the guys they were able to acquire in this past off season fit the profile better. Its hard to know. It does seem as though they are looking for specific assets in their search. Most of these guys throw hard and miss bats. But I suspect there might be a few more esoteric aspects in the mix. At least I am hopeful. After all, what else is a good analytics department good for?

[xmichaelx]

Its interesting that Perez has been pitching over 1 inning his last 2 games since the Lopez. It seems Hyde doesn't have a true 7th inning reliever now that Perez is the setup man.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, xmichaelx said:

Its interesting that Perez has been pitching over 1 inning his last 2 games since the Lopez. It seems Hyde doesn't have a true 7th inning reliever now that Perez is the setup man.

You can see they had Tate warming up but I think they actually have more confidence in Perez and kept him in there even against the RH hitter.    Perez and Tate in the 7th and 8th depending on matchups.   Kreihble, Vespie, Baker in the 6th and as the "B" team setup relievers when Perez and Tate are unavailable or the team is losing.

Of course, Akin is kind of used differently than those guys.

Edited August 6, 2022 by RZNJ

[spiritof66]

9 minutes ago, xmichaelx said:

Its interesting that Perez has been pitching over 1 inning his last 2 games since the Lopez. It seems Hyde doesn't have a true 7th inning reliever now that Perez is the setup man.

You can argue about whether the Mancini trade the 2022 Orioles' chances at a WC spot. In hindsight maybe it will look like it did, but at the time of the trade I didn't think so. I don't think it would be a fair comment on or criticism of the trade to say that it hurt those chances.

I think the opposite is true of the Lopez trade -- though, again, it may look different in hindsight. I think that trade hurt the current team's WC chances and should not have been made for that reason.

Yeah, I know the trade was consistent with Elias's master plan but sometimes, when circumstances change, sound judgment calls on an executive to be flexible enough to modify, bend, alter or even ditch that plan. And Elias, though I don't necessarily believe him, says he was prepared to be flexible in deviating from his plan to help the 2022 team, but that it just didn't work out -- other than with Brett Phillips, and I have trouble putting Phillips and "help the 2022 team" in the same sentence. Even when it's a long sentence.

[xmichaelx]

34 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

You can argue about whether the Mancini trade the 2022 Orioles' chances at a WC spot. In hindsight maybe it will look like it did, but at the time of the trade I didn't think so. I don't think it would be a fair comment on or criticism of the trade to say that it hurt those chances.

I think the opposite is true of the Lopez trade -- though, again, it may look different in hindsight. I think that trade hurt the current team's WC chances and should not have been made for that reason.

Yeah, I know the trade was consistent with Elias's master plan but sometimes, when circumstances change, sound judgment calls on an executive to be flexible enough to modify, bend, alter or even ditch that plan. And Elias, though I don't necessarily believe him, says he was prepared to be flexible in deviating from his plan to help the 2022 team, but that it just didn't work out -- other than with Brett Phillips, and I have trouble putting Phillips and "help the 2022 team" in the same sentence. Even when it's a long sentence.

I am confident we will stay in contention because of the Adley effect more than the loss of Lopez. Also with reinforcements on way later this month or Sept should give us a boost.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Relievers are fungible assets. The O's clearly have a formula to identify guys who are available at a low cost and deliver quality innings. Credit to Sig and company to find them and the PCs to get them to perform. The performance of the bullpen this year really points to the maturation of the organization as a whole. 

If they had such a formula, wouldn’t they have used it in 2019-21?  The 2020 pen was okay in a small sample but 2019 and 2021 were pretty putrid.  I think this year’ pen is mostly the product of the breaks going our way, for once.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If they had such a formula, wouldn’t they have used it in 2019-21?  The 2020 pen was okay in a small sample but 2019 and 2021 were pretty putrid.  I think this year’ pen is mostly the product of the breaks going our way, for once.  

No, don’t you see..the formula wasn’t mature enough then.  It’s been perfected, ala Walter White.

Here’s the problem…all of these BP guys, with maybe the exception of Bautista, have a lot of issues in their stats.  They are all due for regression and quite frankly, as well as things are going now, a collapse could happen soon or, more likely, next year.

I think this BP for this year should be continue to be good but regression is likely.  The good news is that in a given year, even if the stats call for it, regression may not happen.  Hopefully it doesn’t but I don’t feel good about this group going into next year.

[xmichaelx]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, don’t you see..the formula wasn’t mature enough then.  It’s been perfected, ala Walter White.

Here’s the problem…all of these BP guys, with maybe the exception of Bautista, have a lot of issues in their stats.  They are all due for regression and quite frankly, as well as things are going now, a collapse could happen soon or, more likely, next year.

I think this BP for this year should be continue to be good but regression is likely.  The good news is that in a given year, even if the stats call for it, regression may not happen.  Hopefully it doesn’t but I don’t feel good about this group going into next year.

2hy do you say regression is likely? How do we know the Orioles staff didn't make tweaks for the better. There are 4 guys we turned from scrubs to studs. Yes a regression is likely but it can't all be a mirage if its happened to 4 guys.

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, xmichaelx said:

2hy do you say regression is likely? How do we know the Orioles staff didn't make tweaks for the better. There are 4 guys we turned from scrubs to studs. Yes a regression is likely but it can't all be a mirage if its happened to 4 guys.

Because their stats, the predictive ones, say a regression is likely.  Again, it’s possible it doesn’t happen this year.  Sometimes that occurs…thus the much talked about volatility of relievers.

But I wouldn’t feel comfortable bringing back the same pen next year and feeling  like we can contend for a world series with them.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, xmichaelx said:

I am confident we will stay in contention because of the Adley effect more than the loss of Lopez. Also with reinforcements on way later this month or Sept should give us a boost.

Staying in contention will be a challenge. The Orioles may well succeed without Lopez, just like they may succeed without Means or a healthy Hays or with Odor at second base.

But trading Lopez made those chances of success worse, in an amount I don't know how to measure, and I think that was a mistake.

[RZNJ]

Stats are great but watching a pitcher like Perez is pretty informative too.   He's gone from a guy who might hold your breath on weather he was going to throw strikes when he came into a game to a guy who spots his fastball and can bury is breaking pitch at the knees or lower consistently.   Perez has a 1.15.   We all know that's not realistic to continue.  So, if you want to say he's going to give up more runs in the future, no kidding.   If you are going to say he's going to go from good to terrible, that's another.   His command has gotten better as the year has gone on.  This is a lefty with a great arm who had command issues coming into this year.   He's good.  So what kind of regression are we talking about?   What exactly is being predicted for Kriehble, Perez, Tate, Akins, Baker, etc. that we should be so weary of bringing back this bullpen next year.   Most are in their first full year in bullpen and for some in the majors at all.   Are we taking into account the normal improvement that comes along with experience?    Sure seems like our guys have gotten better from April 1 to August 1.  Stats or no stats.

[baltfan]

Don’t be surprised if he isn’t the closer by the end of the year. Bautista seems a bit nervous out there.  He might end up being fine, but it seems like guys are guessing on his pitches pretty well since he became a closer. 

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

You can argue about whether the Mancini trade the 2022 Orioles' chances at a WC spot. In hindsight maybe it will look like it did, but at the time of the trade I didn't think so. I don't think it would be a fair comment on or criticism of the trade to say that it hurt those chances.

I think the opposite is true of the Lopez trade -- though, again, it may look different in hindsight. I think that trade hurt the current team's WC chances and should not have been made for that reason.

Yeah, I know the trade was consistent with Elias's master plan but sometimes, when circumstances change, sound judgment calls on an executive to be flexible enough to modify, bend, alter or even ditch that plan. And Elias, though I don't necessarily believe him, says he was prepared to be flexible in deviating from his plan to help the 2022 team, but that it just didn't work out -- other than with Brett Phillips, and I have trouble putting Phillips and "help the 2022 team" in the same sentence. Even when it's a long sentence.

I think this is how I feel.  My head could handle the Mancini deal.  And the Lopez deal not as much.  But I just look at where we are, winning, losing Means, winning, losing Mancini, winning.  Losing Lopez, winning still.

At some point, we have to say we are succeeding, and take the house money and play this season out.  But keep building on this team that now looks pretty legit if you can add 2 SP.  Say sign one and trade for one.  This is fun.

[yark14]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Because their stats, the predictive ones, say a regression is likely.  Again, it’s possible it doesn’t happen this year.  Sometimes that occurs…thus the much talked about volatility of relievers.

But I wouldn’t feel comfortable bringing back the same pen next year and feeling  like we can contend for a world series with them.

What if their predictive stats improve to line up more with how they are performing?  #glasshalffull