Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Just Regular]

It would be very You Can't Predict Baseball for Kjerstad to lead the future Orioles in WAR, so that's probably what will happen.

He happened to be in a Statcast park last night, so the hack with game 715216 worked, one hard hit ball in his 0-for-4.   Nick Richmond got an inning, and looks like he was about 80% sinker-slider by Savant's classification.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=10/18/2022&gamePk=715216&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=exitVelocity#715216

[Sports Guy]

Yea, I don’t think we can get excited about Kjerstad’s stats no matter what Law said.

All that matters is that he is playing. And when he’s done, he can have a normal offseason of training and then enter next year hopefully with his body and mind back to normal.

Then we see what we have.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Note to Keith Law. If we are talking velo, I don’t think a 94-95 mph fastball for a reliever is above average anymore.

Per Fangraphs, average reliever FB velo this year was 94.1. 

 

[LookinUp]

I'm a huge believer in use of the offseason to hyper-focus on 1-2 primary deficiencies.

My question for Kjerstad isn't whether he's good enough now. It's whether he can make the changes necessary to regain what he needs to hit at higher levels. I'd wager the O's are as good as just about any group at identifying what he needs to change and building a program to do so. 

Kjerstad ended up playing a bunch this year and had decent success. I'd say that's a great season for him. Now it's time to hit the gym and the drills and come back next year ready to take on Bowie.

[Just Regular]

I had posted about Kjerstad "only" being 27th in the league in OPS after the first week or so, and just crediting as he has climbed to 10th as of today.    As always with AFL numbers, everyone's look good on the surface so mostly what I look for is is a guy outplaying the other guys?

The 17/3 K/BB in 62 PA really does stand out in a bad way.    The AFL pitchers do not post MLB like ratios.

The 2022 AFL K/BB ratio is about 1.6 for all Bats (846/519) as generally top Bat prospects see less talented Arms.    The 2022 MLB K/BB ratio was about 2.75 (40812/14853).

Kjerstad Month1 at Bowie if he gets it will start kind of like Stowers this year.    Question 1, are you striking out 35%+ or not?

[Frobby]

Kjerstad currently ranks 5th in OPS, 6th in BA, 5th in SLG and first in HR and RBI.

[RZNJ]

Well, he's playing with guys who have some AA experience like Prieto and Austin Martin and he certainly isn't taking a back seat to anyone.   

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he's playing with guys who have some AA experience like Prieto and Austin Martin and he certainly isn't taking a back seat to anyone.   

Right.  It’s a hitter’s league, but he’s performing well relative to his peers.  Also, though he’s still struck out a lot, I’m pretty sure the K’s have dropped off in the last week or so.   I’ll see if I can verify that.  

Edit: 13 K’s in his first 44 PA, 5 in his last 22.   Not really a big enough sample to draw any big conclusions about improvement in that regard.   
 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Frobby

[CharmCityHokie]

Since he has to go on the 40-man at the end of next season, I do wonder if it would be worthwhile for the Orioles to petition for a 4th option year given his lost time. I know some teams have been successful in doing that in the past when dealing with players who have had extensive health issues. That being said, he'll be 24 before the season starts so if you're still needing to option him at age 29 it might be moot anyways. 

[Just Regular]

A couple more strong weeks to close out and it might become a fair prop whether Heston Kjerstad or Grayson Rodriguez stays in major league camp longer.

 

[byrdz]

Last I checked he also had the most AB's and games played of anyone else in AFL. 

Edit: He has the most AB's and for the players near him he has the better OPS by pretty good margin. He's got nearly double the AB's of the guys ahead of him in OPS.

Edited October 25, 2022 by byrdz

[OriolesMagic83]

14 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A couple more strong weeks to close out and it might become a fair prop whether Heston Kjerstad or Grayson Rodriguez stays in major league camp longer.

 

I hope not.  I'm hoping for GrayRod to start the season in the majors.

[LookinUp]

On 10/25/2022 at 9:29 AM, Frobby said:

Kjerstad currently ranks 5th in OPS, 6th in BA, 5th in SLG and first in HR and RBI.

Not sure how meaningful stats are, but that swing did look powerful to my untrained eye.

[OriolesMagic83]

18 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Not sure how meaningful stats are, but that swing did look powerful to my untrained eye.

Yeah, but how did the bat sound when he hit it?

[Frobby]

From David Laurila’s Sunday blog:

Justyn-Henry Malloy was a guest on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, and one of the subjects addressed by the 22-year-old Atlanta Braves outfield prospect was batting practice power. Malloy is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League, and I wanted to to know which of his Scottsdale Solar Sox teammates puts on the best show. His answer came with little hesitation.

“Heston, [Kjerstad]” replied Malloy. “Period. Hands down, Heston. He puts on an absolute display. I’ll be in the outfield, trying to get my work in, but I can’t really get much outfield work in when balls are going over the wall. At the same time, he’s not trying to hit home runs in BP. Now, I’m not in Heston’s head, but it’s like he could clip balls — he doesn’t get [them] well — and they’re still homers. That’s just a strong human. Credit to him and what he does. He’s special.”

Kjerstad, whom the Baltimore Orioles drafted second overall in 2020 out of the University of Arkansas, has five home runs and a 1.010 OPS in 81 Fall League at-bats. Malloy, Atlanta’s sixth round pick in 2021, began this year in High-A and advanced to Triple-A before joining the Solar Sox.