Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Aristotelian]

On 11/6/2022 at 8:07 PM, Frobby said:

Saw a bit of the Fall Stars game.  Kjerstad struck out on three pitches in the top of the first, then made an error in the bottom half of the inning while playing the hop on a hard single hit in front of him, that led to an unearned run later in the inning off Denoyer.   Next time up he walked on a 3-2 pitch, then after I stopped watching he had an RBI ground single, a foul pop fly to LF, and a fly out to LF.

Denoyer started the game and pitched an inning.   He walked Veen after a pitch that was probably strike three was called a ball on a 2-2 count.   Next guy hit a hard single to right that Kjerstad misplayed so that there were runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out.  Next hitter hit a ball to the LF warning track that scored Veen.  The next guy hit a long fly to Kjerstad that allowed the runner on 2B to tag and go to third.  Kjerstad tried to throw him out but it wasn’t close and not a smart throw IMO. The inning ended on a lazy fly to short LF.  Overall, not that impressive an outing by Denoyer, but he was hurt by the missed strike three and Kjerstad’s error.   

I watched the first inning to catch Denoyer. I was also disappointed. After the walk it seemed he threw to the middle of the plate and got hard contact on the single as well as the three fly ball outs. Was very lucky the damage wasn't worse. I still like him long term.

I saw Kjerstad one game in Phoenix as well and all of his AB's were quick ones (he saw a total of 8 pitches in 4 AB's, including one 3 pitch K). He only had 5 BB's in close to 100 PA's in the AFL. That could be something to keep an eye on despite the nice OPS. More importantly, his defense in RF looks pretty bad. I forget what happened but he had a misplay in the game I saw in AZ and then the error and rainbow throw in the Fall Stars game. 

[Aristotelian]

18 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Has AFL Kjerstad done enough to leapfrog anyone in this section of Tony's end of year Power Rankings?      Last Guy In for the upcoming Top 10 has some good competition.

10	Joey Ortiz	SS	14	UP	Nor (AAA)
11	Cade Povich	LHP	15	UP	BOW (AA)
12	Darnell Hernaiz	INF	12		BOW (AA)
13	Samuel Basallo	C	13		FCL
14	Dylan Beavers	OF	18	UP	Del (A)
15	Heston Kjerstad	OF	10	DOWN	ABN (A+)

I could see him as high as 11 or as low as 15. The guys ahead of him have all performed well. The power is certainly there. Not sure about defense and his AFL BB% is somewhat alarming.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

More importantly, his defense in RF looks pretty bad. I forget what happened but he had a misplay in the game I saw in AZ and then the error and rainbow throw in the Fall Stars game. 

I thought more about the throw.  I said above it wasn’t a good idea, but on further reflection there was nobody on 1B so why not take a shot, I guess.  The camera angle wasn’t great but I agree it seemed to leave his hand with way too much arc on the throw.  I don’t think it really mattered; that runner was getting to 3B almost no matter what.  

As to his low walk rate in the AFL, I’m not too worried there.   He was fine on that score at Delmarva and Aberdeen.  His OBP is .400 in the Fall League, notwithstanding the few walks.   
 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I thought more about the throw.  I said above it wasn’t a good idea, but on further reflection there was nobody on 1B so why not take a shot, I guess.  The camera angle wasn’t great but I agree it seemed to leave his hand with way too much arc on the throw.  I don’t think it really mattered; that runner was getting to 3B almost no matter what.  

   
 

You answered your own question. If the runner is getting to third then you make the safe throw to the cutoff guy. I think it was more of a panic play after the ball got by him. Either way it was an all around ugly play. 

[btdart20]

18 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Has AFL Kjerstad done enough to leapfrog anyone in this section of Tony's end of year Power Rankings?      Last Guy In for the upcoming Top 10 has some good competition.

10	Joey Ortiz	SS	14	UP	Nor (AAA)
11	Cade Povich	LHP	15	UP	BOW (AA)
12	Darnell Hernaiz	INF	12		BOW (AA)
13	Samuel Basallo	C	13		FCL
14	Dylan Beavers	OF	18	UP	Del (A)
15	Heston Kjerstad	OF	10	DOWN	ABN (A+)

I'm not sure...  No way Kjerstad goes ahead of Ortiz (and Ortiz will likely move higher).  And none of these took any steps backwards by any means.  More like "who advanced more relative to the others".

11. I tested positive as a Povich believer but I'm not sure how much of that is the intersection of Hope/Org Lack of SP. 

12. Basallo has held his own at a young age and projects well. 

13. I have to think Kjerstad solidified his floor (he's healthy masher...) but there's still a wide range of potential outcomes (...who needs to out hit his K's as he moves up).  I think he's ahead of Beavers/Fabian (for now at least).  He could easily be in the Mayo/Stowers area given his hit profile (but knocked for defense).  But the health delays and great things we saw from Westburg/Norby/Ortiz in 2022 temper the excitement.  

14. Hernaiz could be a guy on the move.  Positional value subjectively gives a lot of grace.  Would he be a top 5-10-ish guy in other orgs?  For us, he's great depth piece that will allow for MIF trades (either Hernaiz or guys ahead of him with great value/return).  The bulk of his PAs came in A+ where he slashed .305/.377/.456 with 22 SBs.  Is he a better version of Vavra?

15. Beavers - Great showing at Delmarva.  Next level for him and Fabian!

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thought more about the throw.  I said above it wasn’t a good idea, but on further reflection there was nobody on 1B so why not take a shot, I guess.  The camera angle wasn’t great but I agree it seemed to leave his hand with way too much arc on the throw.  I don’t think it really mattered; that runner was getting to 3B almost no matter what.  

As to his low walk rate in the AFL, I’m not too worried there.   He was fine on that score at Delmarva and Aberdeen.  His OBP is .400 in the Fall League, notwithstanding the few walks.   
 

 

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You answered your own question. If the runner is getting to third then you make the safe throw to the cutoff guy. I think it was more of a panic play after the ball got by him. Either way it was an all around ugly play. 

The problem with the throw was it was a throw to 2nd base, not 3rd. I would not call his throw a rainbow from RF, but on that play, he should have gunned it to 2B to try and stop that runner for advancing. It was a below average throw for a RFer. 

[RZNJ]

Are we talking about the same throw.  On the error, he makes a decent throw trying to stop the runner from advancing to 2nd.  While not a laser, a solid throw and the correct play.

The 2nd throw.  Runner on 2nd and one out.  A fly ball to Kjerstad.  No chance to get the runner at 3rd.  While he should have played it safe and hit the cutoff guy the throw was pretty good and accurate.  That’s a very long throw so there was a lot of air under it.

Kjerstad made a nice play against Jordan Walker to end the game.   I didn’t see anything to lead me to believe Kjerstad will be below average or above average.  

[Frobby]

By the way, three games left in the AFL regular season.  The Surprise Saguaros already clinched the regular season title and a spot in Saturday’s championship game.  The 2nd and 3rd place teams play on Friday for the right to face Surprise in the finale.  Right now Scottsdale (who the O’s prospects play for) is tied for 2nd place with Peoria, with Glendale and Mesa each a half-game behind.   Good chance it goes to the final day to determine who’s in the play-in game. Scottsdale plays first place Surprise twice and last place Salt River once in their final three games.   It seems likely they need to win 2 of 3 to make the play-in.  

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are we talking about the same throw.  On the error, he makes a decent throw trying to stop the runner from advancing to 2nd.  While not a laser, a solid throw and the correct play.

The 2nd throw.  Runner on 2nd and one out.  A fly ball to Kjerstad.  No chance to get the runner at 3rd.  While he should have played it safe and hit the cutoff guy the throw was pretty good and accurate.  That’s a very long throw so there was a lot of air under it.

Kjerstad made a nice play against Jordan Walker to end the game.   I didn’t see anything to lead me to believe Kjerstad will be below average or above average.  

You're right, I am talking about the 2nd throw and confusing it with the first. 

[Frobby]

As I suspected, Kjerstad sat out the final game.  His final line was .357/.385/.622, with 5 homers and 17 RBI in 22 games, 104 PA.  The only real blemish was his 29.8% K rate.  Overall, a very encouraging campaign.  Now he can go home and relax for three months 

[LookinUp]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

As I suspected, Kjerstad sat out the final game.  His final line was .357/.385/.622, with 5 homers and 17 RBI in 22 games, 104 PA.  The only real blemish was his 29.8% K rate.  Overall, a very encouraging campaign.  Now he can go home and relax for three months 

Nope. Nope. Nope.

Now he can go home with a very specific fitness and hitting plan and get to work on that. This is the time of year to work on retooling what needs to be retooled. It takes thousands of reps to build muscle memory. If he needs swing adjustments, he should be starting almost immediately.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Nope. Nope. Nope.

Now he can go home with a very specific fitness and hitting plan and get to work on that. This is the time of year to work on retooling what needs to be retooled. It takes thousands of reps to build muscle memory. If he needs swing adjustments, he should be starting almost immediately.

Well, I don’t mean he should sit on his ass for three months.  But the guy has been on a rehab program and then through a long season that carried into mid-November.  Like every player, he will need a little down time, and then he can have a “normal” offseason, is all I meant.  

[Aristotelian]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

As I suspected, Kjerstad sat out the final game.  His final line was .357/.385/.622, with 5 homers and 17 RBI in 22 games, 104 PA.  The only real blemish was his 29.8% K rate.  Overall, a very encouraging campaign.  Now he can go home and relax for three months 

I'd say the 3% walk rate is a bit of a yellow flag. The .385 looks nice but he's not going to hit .357 forever. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say the 3% walk rate is a bit of a yellow flag. The .385 looks nice but he's not going to hit .357 forever. 

I’d be more concerned about it if he’d shown a low walk rate at Delmarva and Aberdeen.  But yeah, I agree “yellow flag” is fair.  

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say the 3% walk rate is a bit of a yellow flag. The .385 looks nice but he's not going to hit .357 forever. 

Is the context for that stat being taken into consideration? I say that because the AFL is notoriously a hitter's league. Maybe you want him to hack a bit to see what the swing can do. Afterall, there's an old saying in the Dominican Republic, "You have to swing like a man. A walk won't get you off the Island."