Pundits grade the 2022 draft

[Pickles]

31 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You got me. It should be something more like 0.8%. Griffey has the 36th highest WAR in the history of MLB and there have been just over 20,000 MLB players. So if I did my arithmetic correct Griffey had a better career than about 99.2% of all MLB players. 

Yeah, but there haven't been 20,000 guys picked 1:1.  

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Yeah, but there haven't been 20,000 guys picked 1:1.  

Neither was Jones!! 

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You got me. It should be something more like 0.8%. Griffey has the 36th highest WAR in the history of MLB and there have been just over 20,000 MLB players. So if I did my arithmetic correct Griffey had a better career than about 99.2% of all MLB players. 

Yes, but my point is that players drafted in the top 2 are not some random selection, so their odds are better (though still quite low).   Put it this way, if Jones ends up at half Griffey’s career WAR, that would be a great outcome for Arizona.  

[Ohfan67]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but my point is that players drafted in the top 2 are not some random selection, so their odds are better (though still quite low).   Put it this way, if Jones ends up at half Griffey’s career WAR, that would be a great outcome for Arizona.  

No kidding. My point was that it was ridiculous to compare Jones to Ken Griffey Jr. Are you actually arguing against that point? You think it's valid to compare Jones on the day of the MLB draft to one of the top 40 players of all time? 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

No kidding. My point was that it was ridiculous to compare Jones to Ken Griffey Jr. Are you actually arguing against that point? You think it's valid to compare Jones on the day of the MLB draft to one of the top 40 players of all time? 

Depends on context.   “This guy will be the next Ken Griffey.”   “This guy could be the next Ken Griffey.”   Those are two very different statements.   The first statement is pretty ridiculous.   The second is unlikely, but literally true.   

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

You got me. It should be something more like 0.8%. Griffey has the 36th highest WAR in the history of MLB and there have been just over 20,000 MLB players. So if I did my arithmetic correct Griffey had a better career than about 99.2% of all MLB players. 

36 of 20,000 is actually 0.18%.   In any case, it's a tall order for Jones to have Griffey's career.

[Ohfan67]

7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

36 of 20,000 is actually 0.18%.   In any case, it's a tall order for Jones to have Griffey's career.

I rounded off. 

[Ohfan67]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends on context.   “This guy will be the next Ken Griffey.”   “This guy could be the next Ken Griffey.”   Those are two very different statements.   The first statement is pretty ridiculous.   The second is unlikely, but literally true.   

The context is that this is a very, very dumb argument. The guy said Jones was going to be the next ken Griffey Jr. If you think Jones on draft day to Ken Griffey Jr is a valid comparison, then Peter Angelos is not the only senile lawyer associated with the Orioles.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The context is that this is a very, very dumb argument. The guy said Jones was going to be the next ken Griffey Jr. If you think Jones on draft day to Ken Griffey Jr is a valid comparison, then Peter Angelos is not the only senile lawyer associated with the Orioles.

I did not say that.  Nor have I seen exactly what the Twitter guy you referenced said.  I think my own explanation is clear enough.  But I have no personal opinion on how good Jones is or could be.  I just read the opinions that are out there, not from this guy but the usual suspects (Longenhagen, McDaniel, Law, Callis etc.).

[Frobby]

Here’s a useful quote:

“Of all the kids with bloodlines and their dads played in the big leagues, he’s as close to his dad as anyone I've ever seen,” said a scout of a team with a top 10 pick who has seen Jones over the years. “Maybe Griffey. Now listen, I don’t think the kid is Ken Griffey Jr. But this kid plays center field about as good as you can play center field. He could play Double-A center field right now. He’s that good defensively.”

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/druw-jones-potential-no-1-pick-andruw-jones-father-son/e9sp3mdb5vxbvkjwshe2ioy3

[Bmorebirds24]

If Jones has a career like Griffey but Holliday has one like Jeter I’ll take the Jeter career and all the rings. 
I love Griffey My favorite player of all time. Sucked seeing injuries overcome him the way they did. And also sucked to see Jeter win a few WS. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a useful quote:

“Of all the kids with bloodlines and their dads played in the big leagues, he’s as close to his dad as anyone I've ever seen,” said a scout of a team with a top 10 pick who has seen Jones over the years. “Maybe Griffey. Now listen, I don’t think the kid is Ken Griffey Jr. But this kid plays center field about as good as you can play center field. He could play Double-A center field right now. He’s that good defensively.”

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/druw-jones-potential-no-1-pick-andruw-jones-father-son/e9sp3mdb5vxbvkjwshe2ioy3

More likely the next Andruw Jones than the next Griffey.  Jones Sr looked like a surefire HOF player for the first 10 years of his career.  Then his production dropped off a cliff.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

More likely the next Andruw Jones than the next Griffey.  Jones Sr looked like a surefire HOF player for the first 10 years of his career.  Then his production dropped off a cliff.

Kind of true for both players, except that Griffey already had done enough to warrant HOF status by the time he was 30.

Griffey: 76.1 rWAR through age 30 season, 7.8 ages 31-40.

Jones: 61.0 rWAR through age 30 season, 1.7 rWAR ages 31-35.

The five years Griffey played beyond the age where Jones stopped playing (ages 36-40), he was worth 0.8 rWAR.  He had one season where he exceeded 1.9 rWAR from ages 31-35.

[waroriole]

If Jim Rice and David Ortiz are Hall of Famers, then Andruw Jones should be too. 

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

If Jim Rice and David Ortiz are Hall of Famers, then Andruw Jones should be too. 

If Ortiz is a HOF then so should Bonds and Clemens.