Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well, continued success would increase his value.

I guess you can argue that.  Does two more months increase it significantly?  I don’t think so.  Then people will say “one good year”.  

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He doesn’t have to be better.  He just had to still be very good and his value will be higher.  He has to show he can be very good for more than a few months.  
 

As he does that, the value increases.  Right now, you look at his past, you see it’s been a good few months and you question if he can keep it up.  So, you are willing to trade only so much to get him.

There’s a balance: longer track record of solid performance vs. shorter period of team control.   The Twins are in first place in their division; having a good back end reliever now (as opposed to the start of next season) is worth a lot to them.  The same could be said for other contenders who may have had interest.   

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Aren’t these GMs as smart as you?  You have no questions that he’ll keep it up.  Or will he regress like you stated a month ago?  I admit it. I can’t keep up.  

I said his ERA would regress.  That doesn’t mean he regresses.  Reliever ERA means very little especially when all the other stats suggest he’s pitching at a high level.

Not to mention, some of the concerns I had about him before are being alleviated some because the Ks are up and walks are down.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I guess you can argue that.  Does two more months increase it significantly?  I don’t think so.  Then people will say “one good year”.  

It does increase it, obviously.  But maybe you still don’t get the offer needed in the offseason.  Well, the good news is that you can contend next year and have him and if you want, trade him at the deadline.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It does increase it, obviously.  But maybe you still don’t get the offer needed in the offseason.  Well, the good news is that you can contend next year and have him and if you want, trade him at the deadline.  

Unless he’s injured or isn’t as good. Then you get less or nothing.  If he doesn’t regress at all and stays healthy and you’re contending next year trading him would be even tougher than this year from a team and PR perspective.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Unless he’s injured or isn’t as good. Then you get less or nothing.  If he doesn’t regress at all and stays healthy and you’re contending next year trading him would be even tougher than this year from a team and PR perspective.

Ok, so?  Then we keep him and perhaps trade him in the offseason.  His value after 2 good years of being a closer, even if he only has 1 year of service time left, will still be higher than it was yesterday.

And even if they never trade him and you just get 2.5 more years of an above average back end guy and he walks away, that’s fine too..because you should be winning and you should want good players when you are trying to win.

[Sports Guy]

This trade makes far more sense if you aren’t in position to contend soon.  If we weren’t, I would have been happy with this deal.

But since you are, your fall back is well we just keep him and contend with him. That’s a nice option to have.  Now, if the Os are contenders next year, I will bet they are looking to solidify the pen at the deadline and will be trading guys like the ones they just got for a reliever that probably isn’t as good as Lopez.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This trade makes far more sense if you aren’t in position to contend soon.  If we weren’t, I would have been happy with this deal.

But since you are, your fall back is well we just keep him and contend with him. That’s a nice option to have.  Now, if the Os are contenders next year, I will bet they are looking to solidify the pen at the deadline and will be trading guys like the ones they just got for a reliever that probably isn’t as good as Lopez.

Or, you keep developing assets and using them to acquire more assets.  The depth Elias is putting together in the system is very impressive at the same time developing nobodies like Lopez, Urías, Mateo into assets.  
 

Lopez is good and he’s been very good.  He’s replaceable.  Vespi will move to the backend to take some of Bakers low leverage innings. Baker will transition to higher leverage innings.  Bautista came up this year. More on the way.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Or, you keep developing assets and using them to acquire more assets.  The depth Elias is putting together in the system is very impressive at the same time developing nobodies like Lopez, Urías, Mateo into assets.  
 

Lopez is good and he’s been very good.  He’s replaceable.  Vespi will move to the backend to take some of Bakers low leverage innings. Baker will transition to higher leverage innings.  Bautista came up this year. More on the way.

No, it’s almost a certainty that you will need and want to add to the pen if you are a contender.  It happens every year to basically every contender. 
 

Lopez was the best reliever moved this year and there’s a good chance that he would have been the best reliever at the deadline next year and that is whether you keep him or you trade him.  In other words, he would be an upgrade for you or anyone else over anything they could get.

[DirtyBird]

Even if Lopez stays good, he would likely max out at about 2.5 WAR per season.

Right now, we have a patchwork starting rotation pitching over their heads.

Prior to the deadline, we had a total of 1 starting pitching prospect in the system that we should have any faith in being a solid MLB starter.

Holding onto a closer, passing on the opportunity to get some starting pitching prospects would be negligent.

Maybe you don't like the return - but you probably don't know too much about it. I am sure the scouting team put in the work to find guys who fit the mold they are looking for.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s almost a certainty that you will need and want to add to the pen if you are a contender.  It happens every year to basically every contender. 
 

Lopez was the best reliever moved this year and there’s a good chance that he would have been the best reliever at the deadline next year and that is whether you keep him or you trade him.  In other words, he would be an upgrade for you or anyone else over anything they could get.

You’re ready to annoint Lopez as better than Josh Hader?   Ok. 

[sportsfan8703]

Two things…

1.  Anyway Bautista can sneak into the the top 3 of ROY voting and get us an extra draft pick next year?  Julio Rodriguez and Jeremy Peña are clearly ahead of him. But Witt?  I’m not sure who else is there. Adley?  Bautista has a lot of holds and Games Finished already. He could rack up saves if we finish strong. Maybe 20 total. 
 

2.  What’s the deal with the Cuban reliever?  Cano?  Can he give us Baker level production this year and possibly Tate level production afterwards?  What are the chances that over the next 2.5 years that he puts up a similar WAR to Lopez?

[RZNJ]

 

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re ready to annoint Lopez as better than Josh Hader?   Ok. 

No.  Forgot about Hader although you can argue that Lopez has been better this year.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

He was an Orioles fan!