I Don't See A 2023 Position Player Logjam

[Matt Bennett]

C - Adley Rutschman + Backup

IF: Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg

OF: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna

Terrin Vavra as an all-around utility guy makes 13. 

 

1. Salary and arbitration increases aren't a problem. Santander is the closest to FA and he's under team control for 2 more years. 

2. It would be nice to have players, beyond our "starting 9", who are actually pretty good on the bench instead of the Rougned Odor, Chris Owings, Tyler Nevin's of the world. There's still plenty of at-bats to go around with this roster. Taking last year's # of MLB plate appearances per team: 6061/13 = 466. Obviously a players like the back-up catcher or Ryan McKenna don't need anywhere near that amount. Account for injuries, effective platooning plus potential struggles of rookies/sophomores as well and I think there's lineup utilization here that puts a great product on the field and continues the development of our youngings. 

3. Colton Cowser, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz haven't touched AAA yet. With Elias' pace of promoting prospects, they'll be in Norfolk for much of 2023. 

 

A splashy FA position player signing certainly throws this out of whack but I just wanted to point out that this is not too crowded of a 13 man position player set-up for a contending team. An off-season trade of one of these 13 doesn't HAVE TO happen if we wanted to only buy pitchers instead of trading for them. 

The future is bright. 

[RVAOsFan]

I would have no issue with starting the season like this.  Cut a big check for a TOR pitcher, bring back Lyles or sign similar innings eater.  Maybe bolster the bullpen with another backend piece.

See how things look halfway through the season and navigate the deadline accordingly.

[Aristotelian]

Sounds about right. Cowser will be knocking on the door. If you think that Urias, Westburg, and Vavra are all everyday players you've got a bit of a logjam there. One of them can DH but you've already got four everyday outfielders plus McKenna. I think we could make it work but I also think we would probably maximize return trading somebody from that list. Depending on the return, I would not be against trading any of Hays, Mullins, Santander, and Urias. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I like this. I think pitching can be good if we sign a really good starter, and G-rod is back. Means comes back at the all star break, hopefully. Having Lyles would be nice too.

[Matt Bennett]

28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sounds about right. Cowser will be knocking on the door. If you think that Urias, Westburg, and Vavra are all everyday players you've got a bit of a logjam there. One of them can DH but you've already got four everyday outfielders plus McKenna. I think we could make it work but I also think we would probably maximize return trading somebody from that list. Depending on the return, I would not be against trading any of Hays, Mullins, Santander, and Urias. 

Vavra hasn't done that well against LHP in his minor league career. Low OPS. Urias doesn't have any drastic platoon splits but isn't someone I need in the lineup 7 days a week. A good but not great player. What a fantastic guy to have step up should a Mateo, Henderson, or Westburg falter or get hurt. 

[Sports Guy]

Cowser will not be in AAA for most of 2023.

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser will not be in AAA for most of 2023.

He very well could be.

I don’t see how you could be so certain over something dependent on multiple variables. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, ChuckS said:

He very well could be.

I don’t see how you could be so certain over something dependent on multiple variables. 

I’m certain because he’s too good to be down there and as long as he’s healthy, he will be up quickly next year.  Elias didn’t draft an advanced college bat high in the draft, one who is showing that he is ready, to sit in the minors when it’s time to contend.

There is a decent chance he’s the best OFer in the organization right now. 

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Vavra hasn't done that well against LHP in his minor league career. Low OPS. Urias doesn't have any drastic platoon splits but isn't someone I need in the lineup 7 days a week. A good but not great player. What a fantastic guy to have step up should a Mateo, Henderson, or Westburg falter or get hurt. 

I agree but what if you could get a starting pitcher for one of those two as part of a package? 

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m certain because he’s too good to be down there and as long as he’s healthy, he will be up quickly next year.  Elias didn’t draft an advanced college bat high in the draft, one who is showing that he is ready, to sit in the minors when it’s time to contend.

There is a decent chance he’s the best OFer in the organization right now. 

He could very well be blocked in the first half of the season pending some kind of trade. He may not light Norfolk on fire the way he has Bowie. Look at how many at bats Stowers got in Norfolk over two different seasons before getting the call. 

I expect to see him up at some point in 2023, but the idea that you are certain it will happen in the first half of the season is not based in reality. You don’t know. None of us do. 

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by ChuckS

[Sports Guy]

Just now, ChuckS said:

He could very well be blocked in the first half of the season pending some kind of trade. He may not light Norfolk on fire the way he has Bowie. Look at how many at bats Stowers got before getting the call. 

I expect to see him up at some point in 2023, but the idea that you are certain it will happen in the first half of the season is not based in reality. You don’t know. None of us do. 

 

Stowers isn’t in the class of Cowser.

No one in the majors is blocking him.

And yea you are right, I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t tell into the future.  That’s not exactly a news flash.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Sports Guy

[OriolesMagic83]

I think one of Santander, Hays, and Mullins will go this offseason, solving any logjam in the outfield. 

[WarehouseChatter]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think one of Santander, Hays, and Mullins will go this offseason, solving any logjam in the outfield. 

I agree with this.  I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Mountcastle go as well which could open the door for a bigger FA signing.  It’s hard to win with all homegrown talent.  I look at the Orioles of the mid-90s and while they had guys like Brady, Ripken, Mussina, Rhodes, they also had Palmeiro and Alomar.  We like our homegrown guys because they’re ours, but to win a WS, we need some very talented FAs.

[LookinUp]

Cowser is the best OF profile in the org, majors or minors, already. It's a matter of him not failing when he goes to AAA. If he is what we hope and what he looks like now, it's a matter of time until he's here.

Assuming Santander/Vavra at DH, that still leaves 4 OF in Hays, Mullins and Stowers plus Cowser. That's a log jam.

Ortiz is a plus defense guy at SS and 2B who has been hitting the snot out of the ball. Norby has been hitting the snot out of the ball. They're not quite the same offensive profile as Cowser, but they'll be ready in the first half of 2023.

Gunnar is #1. Mateo looks to have become a plus all around SS. Westburg's numbers in AAA are similar to Gunnar's, and he plays a good 2B. Plus you have Urias and Vavra.

Looks to me like a +2 person IF logjam and a +1 person OF logjam.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Cowser is the best OF profile in the org, majors or minors, already. It's a matter of him not failing when he goes to AAA. If he is what we hope and what he looks like now, it's a matter of time until he's here.

Assuming Santander/Vavra at DH, that still leaves 4 OF in Hays, Mullins and Stowers plus Cowser. That's a log jam.

Ortiz is a plus defense guy at SS and 2B who has been hitting the snot out of the ball. Norby has been hitting the snot out of the ball. They're not quite the same offensive profile as Cowser, but they'll be ready in the first half of 2023.

Gunnar is #1. Mateo looks to have become a plus all around SS. Westburg's numbers in AAA are similar to Gunnar's, and he plays a good 2B. Plus you have Urias and Vavra.

Looks to me like a +2 person IF logjam and a +1 person OF logjam.

I don't look at is as much a logjam as more of a collection of potential trade chips.  I think Elias feels the same way.  Wonder what SP he is targeting?  Needs to be ML ready or at least in AAA or even better already in the majors.