Next spring training

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I am very jealous. It is hard for me to get away from work in the spring and as a consequence I have never been to spring training. Two weeks at spring training sounds like a great first spring of your retirement! 

I’ve been down before, but usually 4-5 days.  This will be more relaxed. 

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You could certainly make the case that Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, and Henderson are ML ready next opening day and a scenario where Cowser and Ortiz are ready within the first two months.      That would be a lot of turnover if even 4 of those 6 became starters on the ML team.   On the current team, only Adley is not looking over his shoulder.   In ranking players whose jobs are least threatened next April I would rank them like this.

Most threatened to least threatened.

1. Odor (not much needs to be said here)

2. Ramon Urias (nice player but Henderson at 3B and Westburg at 2B looks most likely)

3. Austin Hays (most likely of OF trio to go to make way for Stowers with Cowser closing fast)

4. Santander (having the best season but that might work against him as his value is highest and his service time is ticking)

5. Ryan Mountcastle (he's the anithesis of the approach they try to teach in the minors BUT who else plays 1B?)

6. Cedric Mullins (There really isn't a true CF ready to take his spot which MIGHT keep him safe for now)

7. Jorge Mateo (He's in danger if they see Henderson as the SS but they also love Ortiz who probably won't be deemed ready by next OD and Holliday is probably 2 years out at best).

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the analysis. My initial sense is that you are overestimating the likelihood that minor leaguers will supplant those on the current roster. Here is my take on what you shared, be gentle with me. 

1. Odor... yes, he should be gone for sure. 
2. Urias... he will be on the roster, at least as a utility player. Westburg and Henderson would have to have a no-doubter spring to supplant him
3. Hays is a plus defender who can play all 3 outfield positions and a RH bat. I think he has a big head start over Stowers and Cowser. I can see Stowers as a 4th or 5th outfielder and as a DH type when not in the field. 
4. Santander... agree with you 100%. I think another team is going to overvalue him and give the O's something good in return. 
5. Mountcastle.... I'm hoping that they somehow can trade or sign a big bat for 1B
6. Mullins... I think he stays in CF until traded at the deadline 
7. I'm not sure that Mateo is in any danger of losing his spot. He appears to be an exciting .750 OPS player who very well could be a gold glove winner.  

[baltfan]

Mullins and Santander should be safe.  Mullins because of his position and Santander because of his consistency.  Santander reminds me a bit of Nelson Cruz  as a hitter and in career arc.  

[Sports Guy]

Santander is consistent?

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Santander is consistent?

You missed the part where he compared him to a known steroid users aging curve.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You could certainly make the case that Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, and Henderson are ML ready next opening day and a scenario where Cowser and Ortiz are ready within the first two months.      That would be a lot of turnover if even 4 of those 6 became starters on the ML team.   On the current team, only Adley is not looking over his shoulder.   In ranking players whose jobs are least threatened next April I would rank them like this.

Most threatened to least threatened.

1. Odor (not much needs to be said here)

2. Ramon Urias (nice player but Henderson at 3B and Westburg at 2B looks most likely)

3. Austin Hays (most likely of OF trio to go to make way for Stowers with Cowser closing fast)

4. Santander (having the best season but that might work against him as his value is highest and his service time is ticking)

5. Ryan Mountcastle (he's the anithesis of the approach they try to teach in the minors BUT who else plays 1B?)

6. Cedric Mullins (There really isn't a true CF ready to take his spot which MIGHT keep him safe for now)

7. Jorge Mateo (He's in danger if they see Henderson as the SS but they also love Ortiz who probably won't be deemed ready by next OD and Holliday is probably 2 years out at best).

Really good summary and agree with your rankings too.  Only addition I would make is Urias isn’t in danger of being traded and still be on the team as utility.  Whereas everyone else below him could be traded instead of benched.  

I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a few trades this off season as well.  Raise the bar!

[survivedc]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Really good summary and agree with your rankings too.  Only addition I would make is Urias isn’t in danger of being traded and still be on the team as utility.  Whereas everyone else below him could be traded instead of benched.  

I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a few trades this off season as well.  Raise the bar!

Teams may look at Urias as a starter which would make him very trade able. 

[Sydnor]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Thanks for the analysis. My initial sense is that you are overestimating the likelihood that minor leaguers will supplant those on the current roster. Here is my take on what you shared, be gentle with me. 

1. Odor... yes, he should be gone for sure. 
2. Urias... he will be on the roster, at least as a utility player. Westburg and Henderson would have to have a no-doubter spring to supplant him
3. Hays is a plus defender who can play all 3 outfield positions and a RH bat. I think he has a big head start over Stowers and Cowser. I can see Stowers as a 4th or 5th outfielder and as a DH type when not in the field. 
4. Santander... agree with you 100%. I think another team is going to overvalue him and give the O's something good in return. 
5. Mountcastle.... I'm hoping that they somehow can trade or sign a big bat for 1B
6. Mullins... I think he stays in CF until traded at the deadline 
7. I'm not sure that Mateo is in any danger of losing his spot. He appears to be an exciting .750 OPS player who very well could be a gold glove winner.  

I’m not going to be shocked if we get an article from Roch this winter, where he writes than Santander is spending a significant amount of time working out at first base.

With respect to Hays’ defense, it’s more reputation at this point. He’s trending in the wrong direction. After being -2 outs above average in 2021, he’s -6 outs above average this year. Last year he was at 10 defensive runs saved. This year he is at 1 defensive run saved. His UZR is down from 6.9 to 2.6. I understand that there are games left, but Hays is probably an average defender at this point and his defense will likely continue to get worse as he continues to age. If the bat continues to be average, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was replaced by Cowser. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he was traded this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, survivedc said:

Teams may look at Urias as a starter which would make him very trade able. 

Yep.  Of course he’s a tradable guy.

I don’t think you get a lot for him straight up but as a piece in a trade?  Absolutely.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, baltfan said:

Mullins and Santander should be safe.  Mullins because of his position and Santander because of his consistency.  Santander reminds me a bit of Nelson Cruz  as a hitter and in career arc.  

Whenever you compare someone to a player with a wildly unusual aging pattern that's probably not what's going to happen.  Most players who have Nelson Cruz' career through age 27 don't end up with 450 homers.  They end up more like Matt Meiske, who is Cruz' top age-27 comp on bb-ref. Or Josh Willingham.  Or Ryan Ludwick.  Meiske is probably underselling Santander, but he would have to be very happy if his career ended up like Willingham.

Nelson Cruz is the Jamie Moyer of DHs.  Anytime someone picks out a junkballing lefty with a 4.88 ERA through age 30 and says "see, that's Jamie Moyer, he's going to be Jamie Moyer" you can assume said player is going to be out of professional baseball inside of three years.

[baltfan]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Whenever you compare someone to a player with a wildly unusual aging pattern that's probably not what's going to happen.  Most players who have Nelson Cruz' career through age 27 don't end up with 450 homers.  They end up more like Matt Meiske, who is Cruz' top age-27 comp on bb-ref. Or Josh Willingham.  Or Ryan Ludwick.  Meiske is probably underselling Santander, but he would have to be very happy if his career ended up like Willingham.

Nelson Cruz is the Jamie Moyer of DHs.  Anytime someone picks out a junkballing lefty with a 4.88 ERA through age 30 and says "see, that's Jamie Moyer, he's going to be Jamie Moyer" you can assume said player is going to be out of professional baseball inside of three years.

I agree with everything you are saying. There also is Cruz’s positive PED test.  I Santander’s defense he is much better than Cruz was at similar ages.  Two years ago, he was a near elite hitter.  Last year he was injured.  This year is perhaps closer to his actual abilities.  He also was a Rule 5 guy which can hurt development a bit.  It would be ridiculous for him to end up a professional hitter like Nelson Criz, but this team needs a reliable guy in the middle and he is pretty reliable and not awful in the outfield. 

[Natty]

I can't wait to see the big money free agents we bring in to play. 

Oh wait. Never mind. Just kidding.

I can't wait for these same guys, supplemented by minor leaguers, to have an even better team than this year. 

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, baltfan said:

I agree with everything you are saying. There also is Cruz’s positive PED test.  I Santander’s defense he is much better than Cruz was at similar ages.  Two years ago, he was a near elite hitter.  Last year he was injured.  This year is perhaps closer to his actual abilities.  He also was a Rule 5 guy which can hurt development a bit.  It would be ridiculous for him to end up a professional hitter like Nelson Criz, but this team needs a reliable guy in the middle and he is pretty reliable and not awful in the outfield. 

He had an .890 OPS for 37 games.  That's not nothing, but his .758 career mark is more relevant.

[jamalshw]

I lived in Florida for 14 years and the COVID spring years were the first I didn't go to a game in a decade. I picked quite a time to move, right when it gets good. 

[SteveA]

Now you can begin your trip planning...

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/schedule/2023-02