Tom Verducci: How the Orioles Became the Most Unlikely Playoff Contender in MLB History

[Satyr3206]

I would be interested to know what Lyles is worth based on how he has pitched this year.

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You can't have it both ways.  You can't expect every word to be a literally true prediction of the future, but then expect him to say that absolutely we're going to beat out 29 other teams trying to sign big talent.  They are going to try, and it's a near certainty that some of their targets really want to play somewhere else and they won't get them.

Of course…but we have an ownership group where their level of trying tends to be different than other ownership groups.  

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

This is an educated guess so take it with a grain of salt. I think they keep Lyles. Stability in a rotation with a bunch of young guys is important. I think they trade for a #1 or 2 starter. I also think there is a good possibility they add either a First Baseman and Outfielder in Free Agency.

So if they keep Lyles, that puts them in the 50ishM range.

At first base, you have Josh Bell, Jose Abreu and Mancini.

Outside of Judge, who we won’t and shouldn’t even attempt to sign, the OF list is even worse than that.

I do think we need to overhaul the offense somewhat but again, some of that is coming from our system.

But I would like to see them add one more above average bat and 2 top end starters.  But that doesn’t mean it will cost a lot in terms of money.

[eddie83]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So if they keep Lyles, that puts them in the 50ishM range.

At first base, you have Josh Bell, Jose Abreu and Mancini.

Outside of Judge, who we won’t and shouldn’t even attempt to sign, the OF list is even worse than that.

I do think we need to overhaul the offense somewhat but again, some of that is coming from our system.

But I would like to see them add one more above average bat and 2 top end starters.  But that doesn’t mean it will cost a lot in terms of money.

Bell does walk a good bit. Switch hitter. His defense at 1B by the metrics has improved. Turned 30 in August. Can’t imagine he gets a super long deal.  

[Spy Fox]

31 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Bell does walk a good bit. Switch hitter. His defense at 1B by the metrics has improved. Turned 30 in August. Can’t imagine he gets a super long deal.  

Bell could be a good option on a 1-2 year deal if they decide to trade Mountcastle for pitching. Taking most of swings from the left side might appeal to Elias over the other options. And a better career hitter than Mancini. 

[DrungoHazewood]

32 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Bell does walk a good bit. Switch hitter. His defense at 1B by the metrics has improved. Turned 30 in August. Can’t imagine he gets a super long deal.  

Negatives for Bell: He's a 2-3 win player entering his 30s, so anything more than a 2-3 year deal for moderate salary is kind of meh. His value has been solid when he hits .280-300, not so much when he doesn't. 

Positives: I can finally get rid of the Josh Bell negative connotations from associating the name with our failed third baseman of the future from the George Sherrill deal.

[eddie83]

29 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Negatives for Bell: He's a 2-3 win player entering his 30s, so anything more than a 2-3 year deal for moderate salary is kind of meh. His value has been solid when he hits .280-300, not so much when he doesn't. 

Positives: I can finally get rid of the Josh Bell negative connotations from associating the name with our failed third baseman of the future from the George Sherrill deal.

He definitely has his flaws. I think they need to do something outside of what they have to tweak things. Not some type of an overhaul. Can’t assume Gunnar is going to be a star right away. They need another significant bat.  
 

I think how Elias and the FO view Stowers and Westburg will play a major role this off-season and beyond. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I wouldn't bet the Farm they will spend wildly this off season. I think it will be a trade or two and above average spending. Payroll probably around 90 to 100 million.

I would bet the farm they won’t spend “wildly” this offseason.  They don’t need to.  Just a few significant acquisitions in areas of need.   

[Satyr3206]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Negatives for Bell: He's a 2-3 win player entering his 30s, so anything more than a 2-3 year deal for moderate salary is kind of meh. His value has been solid when he hits .280-300, not so much when he doesn't. 

Positives: I can finally get rid of the Josh Bell negative connotations from associating the name with our failed third baseman of the future from the George Sherrill deal.

Or they could sign him, he sucks, and the connotations continue.

[Satyr3206]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would bet the farm they won’t spend “wildly” this offseason.  They don’t need to.  Just a few significant acquisitions in areas of need.   

Pitching is expensive. As much as I like Grayson and DL. I wouldn't depend on them yet. Means is a wildcard depending on how he comes back.

[AnythingO's]

What Elias said was: “Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said .  “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively.  We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”  

I remembered it as "most" when he actually said "a lot" ,, my bad. Either way I think that caps how much he can spend around $20 M if SG's estimates of Arb costs are right. Coupled with pre-Arb and fixed costs (Davis etc) we are in the $40 M range so an increase to $60 M range. I suppose if we keep Lyles, he could be seen as part of the base so we could get to $70 M range. Either way Elias had enough qualifier words in there to cover frustrated expectations.

[Sports Guy]

I could see the payroll be 60-80M next year.  I would be surprised if it eclipses 80M but it certainly can.  
 

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I would bet the farm they won’t spend “wildly” this offseason.  They don’t need to.  Just a few significant acquisitions in areas of need.   

Houston model 

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I would bet the farm they won’t spend “wildly” this offseason.  They don’t need to.  Just a few significant acquisitions in areas of need.   

Agreed.  My hopeful fandom wants one significant signing (likely TOR or MOO) and some filling of holes here/there.  The jaded cynic from the last few years sees a couple of Lyles types and some hole filling. 

I'm hanging my O's hat on Elias saying something to the effect of making different types of decisions going forward and rocking the orange sunglasses!  Anyone else pre-order their O's Verlander jersey?

[csgordos]

On 8/30/2022 at 5:32 PM, spiritof66 said:

Then you might not know that the other two prominent syndicates in the late 1890s were Pittsburg/Louisville (I'm pretty sure Pittsburg had no "h" then) and Brooklyn/Baltimore. (New York/Cincinnati was another, sort of.)

With seven (I think that's right) future Hall of Famers, the Orioles finished first or second five times in the National League during the 1890s, including three consecutive pennants from '94 through '96. After the 1898 season, most of the team's stars wound up in Brooklyn. (A couple more followed a year later.) In 1899, with a change in nicknames from Bridegrooms to Superbas, Brooklyn won the pennant while setting a record for wins with a 101-47 mark, an improvement of 45.5 games from their tenth-place finish the season before.

The Louisville-Pittsburg story is more complicated, but after Louisville was eliminated from the National League, as discussed below, most of its best players, including Honus Wagner, ended up with the Pirates, who won four pennants in the following decade.  

The three teams victimized by syndicate baseball were eliminated when the NL lopped off four teams after the 1899 season. Baltimore and Cleveland (and the fourth eliminated team, Washington) got franchises in the American League. Louisville got to make bats.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/today-in-1899-the-brooklyn-superbas-were-born/

ttps://sabr.org/journal/article/barney-dreyfuss-buys-pittsburgh/

Thank you for taking the time to write this synopsis up!!!  I enjoy learning about baseball history.