Would you offer a 10/$50 mm deal right now to any of these MiL players?

[emmett16]

I have Holliday & G Rod.  Might be appealing to G Rod after his ordeal this year.  Holliday could hit FA at 29 with 58MM in bank.  The others have some question marks for me that would cause me pause investing in them (at this juncture).  Wouldn’t think twice writing a check to Grayson & Jackson.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m not sold on Mayo yet.  I think next year could be huge for him, but he has some questions to answer for me.  This would be the year to get a steaL of a deal, but I think it’s risky.  Especially with his body size + some of the nagging injuries he’s had to date.   I’d like to see one solid dominating year form him before I pay him.  

I can see that.  But the risk is overall minimal here.  None of these guys would even consider this deal.(well maybe Norby and Ortiz would but I don’t think the others would)

Edited September 13, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Chances are that out of these 7 players, no more than two of them will earn $50 mm playing baseball going year-by-year. But which two?  That’s a crapshoot.   

[Osornot]

Only picked the big 3 but if I took all 7 it would be a commitment of $350M over 10 years. If one hits over the first few years it's a bargain.  

[MurphDogg]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Chances are that out of these 7 players, no more than two of them will earn $50 mm playing baseball going year-by-year. But which two?  That’s a crapshoot.   

If you want to set the over/under at 2.5 on how many of these 7 players will earn $50 million between 2023 and 2032, I would take the over on that bet.

Edited September 13, 2022 by MurphDogg

[Hank Scorpio]

I would offer it to Rodriguez, Ortiz, Mayo, Cowser and Holliday provided there was not a no trade clause involved.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

If you want to set the over/under at 2.5 on how many of these 7 players will earn $50 million between 2023 and 2032, I would take the over on that bet.

I’d take the under.  But I’d be happy to be wrong, because the only players who make more than $50 mm are ones who play 6+ years in the majors and are pretty successful.  Just for example, Jonathan Schoop has played 9 years and has made $40 mm, and won’t surpass $50 mm over 10 years.  

You also need to consider that some of the players I listed either won’t reach the majors at all in 2023, or won’t earn a full year of service. 
 

 

[MurphDogg]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d take the under.  But I’d be happy to be wrong, because the only players who make more than $50 mm are ones who play 6+ years in the majors and are pretty successful.  Just for example, Jonathan Schoop has played 9 years and has made $40 mm, and won’t surpass $50 mm over 10 years.  

You also need to consider that some of the players I listed either won’t reach the majors at all in 2023, or won’t earn a full year of service. 

Yeah, it is close but I guess I am just an optimist.

I would put the percent chances that each earns $50M by 2032 as follows:

Grayson - 85 percent (tough to go higher on a pitcher)

Cowser - 80 percent

Holliday - 75 percent 

Hall - 40 percent

Ortiz - 20 percent

Mayo - 15 percent

Norby - 15 percent

Feel free to bump this thread in a few years and laugh at my optimism.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Yeah, it is close but I guess I am just an optimist.

I would put the percent chances that each earns $50M by 2032 as follows:

Grayson - 85 percent (tough to go higher on a pitcher)

Cowser - 80 percent

Holliday - 75 percent 

Hall - 40 percent

Ortiz - 20 percent

Mayo - 15 percent

Norby - 15 percent

Feel free to bump this thread in a few years and laugh at my optimism.

Believe me, I have every intention of bumping this thread once it starts to become clear who has become a successful major leaguer or not.   And I may try to develop some historical data relevant to these types of decisions.  

[jabba72]

I voted yes on all of them. Overly optimistic I guess.

[jabba72]

I voted yes on all of them. Overly optimistic I guess.

[FlaO'sFan]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d take the under.  But I’d be happy to be wrong, because the only players who make more than $50 mm are ones who play 6+ years in the majors and are pretty successful.  Just for example, Jonathan Schoop has played 9 years and has made $40 mm, and won’t surpass $50 mm over 10 years.  

You also need to consider that some of the players I listed either won’t reach the majors at all in 2023, or won’t earn a full year of service. 
 

 

I'm not trying to change the subject of this thread, honestly I am not, but the Jonathan Schoop reference reminded me of something and I wanted to ask. Didn't he (Jonathan) take some kind of money up front from a company (I want to say 90 mill or something but that doesn't seem right), in return for all or part of his future earnings, around his last year or two with the O's?

For some reason I am remembering that. I hope I am not completely wrong. If he did take more than 50 mill then he seems to have made a pretty good deal.

Edited September 13, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, FlaO'sFan said:

I'm not trying to change the subject of this thread, honestly I am not, but the Jonathan Schoop reference reminded me of something and I wanted to ask. Didn't he (Jonathan) take some kind of money up front from a company (I want to say 90 mill or something but that doesn't seem right), in return for all or part of his future earnings, around his last year or two with the O's?

For some reason I am remembering that. I hope I am not completely wrong on that. If he did take more than 50 mill then he seems to have made a pretty good deal.

Frobby has followed up on the original deal, from what I understand the company (Fantex) is now private.

https://eutawstreetreport.com/jonathan-schoop-fantex-analysis/

He received 4.91M for 10% of his future earnings.

No idea if Boras worked out some deal with them after Schoop signed with him, this deal predates Boras.

[FlaO'sFan]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Frobby has followed up on the original deal, from what I understand the company (Fantex) is now private.

https://eutawstreetreport.com/jonathan-schoop-fantex-analysis/

He received 4.91M for 10% of his future earnings.

No idea if Boras worked out some deal with them after Schoop signed with him, this deal predates Boras.

Thanks, those numbers make much more sense and ring a bell with me now. I think the 90-100 mill was a number that other posters on the Baltimore Sun O's board (that I posted on back then) were throwing around for maybe the high end of his earning potential. At the time I always wondered how it would turn out for Jonathan but had forgotten about it for awhile now, so I appreciate the information.

Edited September 13, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Frobby has followed up on the original deal, from what I understand the company (Fantex) is now private.

https://eutawstreetreport.com/jonathan-schoop-fantex-analysis/

He received 4.91M for 10% of his future earnings.

No idea if Boras worked out some deal with them after Schoop signed with him, this deal predates Boras.

Right, so Fantex bet he’d make at least $49 mm.  So far, he hasn’t.  He still might, but with the time value of money, paying Schoop $4.9 mm up front probably was a losing investment.