Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Palmer's been watching and closely involved in Major League Baseball for sixty years now.  I think he has some authority on this issue and he's hardly just some "broadcaster."  And it's not like it's just the two of us.  There's been plenty of ink spilled this summer over how well Mateo's playing SS in a broad array of publications.

I’m not arguing that he is playing well.  What I am arguing and saying is false is that he is on a different level than everyone else.  That’s wrong and total bs.

I don’t think we need to make it more than it is.  He is playing at a high level and certainly could win a GG.  

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think Mateo is very, very good but he plays with a little bit of mustard/flash that makes things look better than they are sometimes.  He goes into the hole and throws the 2 hopper to 1B and it looks fabulous.   Hardy may or may not have gotten to the ball but if Hardy does get to it, he plants his foot and throws a chest high strike to 1B.    Time lost on planting his feet gained back on the throw to 1B.   

Yep.  A lot of the Mateo love is simply people falling in love with his tools and excitement.  It’s why people go overboard with him.

[Tony-OH]

I'm not even sure what you guys are arguing about any more. Fairly certain we all believe Mateo has played a great shortstop this year. Every defensive metric has him playin among the best.

Saying that, I'm not sure how anyone can say he's the best overall or playing at a level above everyone else when none of the metrics show that. I also doubt anyone arguing this, including Palmer has watched all the other shortstops this year as much as they've watched Mateo.

At the end of the day, Mateo has been fantastic defensively at shortstop. He very well could win the AL gold glove since the SSs above him are all National league in must defensive metrics.

So, is Mateo playing shortstop at some level above all all MLB shortstops, no, none of the defensive metrics show that. 

Oh, and BTW, OAA may not be perfect yet, and there are things about I still don't understand when it comes to how it comes up with each play determination and score, but it is the only metric using data collected from the field on ball speed, player movement, and runner speed. In my mind it's the metric I would most likely use when determining how good a player is defensively. Saying that, it's still not perfect and the fact they refuse to give us reaction times and quickness information on infielders tells me some of the data is wonky.

Can we all just agree that Mateo has played a marvelous shortstop this year and we've all enjoyed watching him play?

[SilverRocket]

Yeah I don't think we disagree all that much here. Is Mateo the best defensive SS in all of MLB? Probably not. Is he the best in the AL and therefore deserving of a gold glove? Yes, at least he should be in the conversation and maybe he deserves to win it. Is he better defensively than previous Orioles shortstops like Palmer implied? Not sure but possibly yes. Standards go up with time. He could be better than Hardy and Cal and maybe even Belanger, and also not be the best in baseball today. Those aren't at odds with each other. I don't think Hardy makes many of the plays that Mateo can make, though he was more reliable. You might argue the same with Cal, though I mostly watched the second half of his career.

I don't think Palmer said Mateo's the best in the MLB today. He was comparing Mateo to the ones he's seen regularly.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

If I was on an island here you might have a point.  But it's not just me.  It's Jim Freaking Palmer too.  And we're hardly alone.

And you can dismiss Palmer as exaggerating but I don't.  Palmer watched JJ Hardy win 3 gold gloves in a row just a few years ago for us, and while he was highly complimentary of his defense, he didn't say the things about Hardy that he is saying about Mateo.

Mateo makes plays that Hardy and Cal couldn’t have made.  That’s true.  The other two were steady and super smart about where to be.  So Mateo is more spectacular to watch.  Not sure I’m ready to say he’s better.  

[EddeeEddee]

Can't stand watching him at the plate.  He can't take strike 3 with the bases loaded and nobody out the way he just did -- and then complain about the call.  It was clearly a strike.  He looked like a fool there, and a decent hitter would have protected the plate.  Maybe he brings back memories of Mark Belanger, but it's silly to think he's the starter for years to come with so many great hitting shortstops emerging these days.

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Can't stand watching him at the plate.  He can't take strike 3 with the bases loaded and nobody out the way he just did -- and then complain about the call.  It was clearly a strike.  He looked like a fool there, and a decent hitter would have protected the plate.  Maybe he brings back memories of Mark Belanger, but it's silly to think he's the starter for years to come with so many great hitting shortstops emerging these days.

Awful at bat. He usually expands the zone.  He took 4 straight fastballs, three of which were strikes and a 4th that was borderline.   He’s lost right now.

[Sports Guy]

650 OPS

[LA2]

One thing people tend to forget about Mateo is that he's had only 679 ML at-bats and this is his first full season as a front-line player. His hitting could improve a lot next year.

Edited September 25, 2022 by LA2
Typos

[Sports Guy]

On 9/24/2022 at 11:48 PM, LA2 said:

One thing people tend to forget about Mateo is that he's had 679 ML at-bats in this is his first full season as a front-line player. His hitting could improve a lot next year.

No one forgets it.  It’s just that it has taken him a long time to get this many at bats for a reason.  And his MiL career was pretty meh.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

What type of trade value does Mateo have right now?  Should we just keep stockpiling young pitching prospects?  I do think we give Mateo one more half season. The guy could be an all star with a .725 OPS. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What type of trade value does Mateo have right now?  Should we just keep stockpiling young pitching prospects?  I do think we give Mateo one more half season. The guy could be an all star with a .725 OPS. 

Yes, he could be.  But do we have any reason to think he could put up a .725 OPS over a full season?  Other than the first week of the season, the highest his OPS ever was at any point was .695.   He did have that one nice streak of .886 over 50 games (June 24 - August 23).  Before that, he had a .550 in 64 games, and since his hot streak ended, .455 in 27 games.  Seems there’s no in-between with this guy.  

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/24/2022 at 11:48 PM, LA2 said:

One thing people tend to forget about Mateo is that he's had only 679 ML at-bats and this is his first full season as a front-line player. His hitting could improve a lot next year.

Mateo is 27.  It's likely that this is as good as he gets.  Some players peak later, a small handful pull a Melvin Mora.  But most decline after 27.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mateo is 27.  It's likely that this is as good as he gets.  Some players peak later, a small handful pull a Melvin Mora.  But most decline after 27.

I forget, is there any difference in timing of peak between a guy who debuts at, say, 22 and one who debuts at 25?  It does seem logical to me that peak is a function of both age and experience, and that a less experienced player might peak at a later age once he has a certain experience level.  But I don’t know if there’s evidence to support it.  

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I forget, is there any difference in timing of peak between a guy who debuts at, say, 22 and one who debuts at 25?  It does seem logical to me that peak is a function of both age and experience, and that a less experienced player might peak at a later age once he has a certain experience level.  But I don’t know if there’s evidence to support it.  

I've never seen any evidence that debuting later moves your peak later.  Most of the time a later debut just means you weren't good enough to play in the majors at an earlier age.  Reaction times, speed, quickness will all decline with age no matter when you hit the Majors.  Those things all probably peak in one's early 20s, and experience is keeping you from declining much earlier.