Future First Baseman

[baltfan]

There is no obvious future first baseman in the minors, so it seems to me we should look based upon body type and other characteristics.  Looking at those things it seems there are a few possibilities in the majors and minors assuming the Orioles move on from Mountcastle.

Stowers - has the height, doesn't seem particularly fast in the outfield compared to others in the pipeline.

Mayo - huge target, plays third so should be used to the footwork for fielding balls at first, negative is that you are wasting his arm so maybe is better in outfield.

Kjerstad - seems like the lesser athlete of the guys in the outfield that are coming (Cowser, Fabian, Beavers).  Has size similar to Stowers.  Power to play the position.

 

[RZNJ]

1. Westburg

2. Norby 

3. Vavra

4. Mayo

5. Stowers

[btdart20]

Do any of them have professional game experience at 1B?  When do they start?  Those questions matter more to me than who they audition for the role.

Norby tops my list of potentials.  Not because he's the ideal 1B, but because of where his skills fit in context of the rest of our in-house talent (of those who can hit).  In other words, I'd rather have some combo of Gunnar, Mateo, Ortiz, and Westburg (and a few others as we move down the org) fielding 2B, SS, and 3B.  I'll give up a few inches of reach for a few feet of range.

[emmett16]

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion they are going to treat 1B like DH and shuffle all the IFs through there to maximize playing time and versatility.  I think some combo of Mountcastle/Westburg/Stowers/Vavra get time at 1B in spring training and we see a group approach to 1B in 2023 and beyond. 

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’ve got a sneaking suspicion they are going to treat 1B like DH and shuffle all the IFs through there to maximize playing time and versatility.  I think some combo of Mountcastle/Westburg/Stowers/Vavra get time at 1B in spring training and we see a group approach to 1B in 2023 and beyond. 

Barring a trade, this seems most likely. Too bad for Mountcastle he plays the weak side of a platoon setup. I like the idea of trying out Stowers in the offseason, but we have no idea how that will go. I believe he played some there in summer league but that's about it. If that works, he could be the primary 1B with a pretty long leash. If not, it's probably Mountcastle with other guys rotating in.

You like to see more of a power bat than Vavra, but 1B seems like it could be a good spot for him defensively and I'd like to get his bat in the lineup. If we had a lineup full of scrappy guys who work counts and get on base, that wouldn't be the worst thing. 

If Mayo blows up he could be a long term solution, but not until '24 at the earliest. So far I am not convinced he will hit consistently. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Mountcastle until Arb 3 year.

Likely acquire someone who is a LH power bat via trade or Draft.

I doubt they sign a FA this cycle.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Mountcastle until Arb 3 year.

Likely acquire someone who is a LH power bat via trade or Draft.

I doubt they sign a FA this cycle.

Agreed w/ Mounty until arb3.  Good chance he ‘regresses to mean’ considering his solid contact and batted ball statcast data.  It’s the chase rate/swing decisions that’s killing him!

We’re probably just spoiled with a full cupboard at other positions, but it would be nice to see a 1B plan though.  Not the high K% or lite hitting options at AAA or AA now.

I looked around the league rosters a bit and did not find any real trade targets I’d be interested in either (Tellez?).  

Josh Bell is a FA option if we’re willing to spend on the position.  But I think SP will be the FA focus.

Maybe a minor league trade for someone who’s blocked?  Dodgers, Toronto, NYM…

[Tony-OH]

This team needs a real bopper in the lineup and 1B is usually a position where you can find one. Mountcastle is just never going to be a real high value guy because his on bae skills are bad and it's doubtful he's going to be better.

But, to your question of the future. I've been in the Stowers bandwagon for a bit now and would like to see him tried first. Within the system, Westburg is a guy that could transition there but his value may be as trade bait since he can play on the left side of the infield. 

Kjerstad makes some sense as well if he can play ground balls. While he hasn't looked awful in the outfield, I think the Orioles will have much better defenders than him available IF his bat is good enough anyways.

Other than that, nobody really stands out unless the Orioles decide 1B is the best option for Samual Basallo due to his size and the fact that Rutschman is going nowhere for awhile.

 

[LookinUp]

I doubt he'd do it with our first pick in the draft, but with our second pick it wouldn't shock me if Elias found a Norby type who profiles as the best remaining bat but without a lot of positional value. 

The Rays picked a 1B with their #29 pick this year. I could see us going that route.

 

Just looking at prospects, there aren't a ton of top guys who are listed at 1B, and Mountcastle is right in the middle (by OPS) of MLB 1B. There just aren't a ton of guys that I'd want who are actually attainable. I think I'd go the Mountcastle plus platoon type guy approach to try to maximize the value from that position. Anthony Rizzo seems to have an opt out, so he'd be a good target.

[RZNJ]

Stowers would be a natural since he's big and throws LH but I have to think he hasn't looked good there in the past or I think they would have tried it by now.   It seems like a natural thing to at least have gotten him some experience there.    

I think Westburg has the best chance of being a plus defensive 1B along with providing the thump at the position.   I think he could be a better overall version of Mountcastle both offensively and defensively.

[wildcard]

1. Westburg in the near term

2.  Kjerstad because I don't think he will be a great defensive RF.

3.  Mayo is a maybe for me because by the time he is ready for the majors Mateo is probably traded and Henderson moves to SS.  That opens 3B for Mayo.

4.  Stowers  -  Santander is probably traded at the 2023 deadline and Stowers takes over RF.

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

3.  Mayo is a maybe for me because by the time he is ready for the majors Mateo is probably traded and Henderson moves to SS.  That opens 3B for Mayo.

Oh good, we can downgrade two important defensive positions at once.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh good, we can downgrade two important defensive positions at once.

You're the one who said it's not just about defense but the combination of defense plus offense.

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I doubt he'd do it with our first pick in the draft, but with our second pick it wouldn't shock me if Elias found a Norby type who profiles as the best remaining bat but without a lot of positional value. 

The Rays picked a 1B with their #29 pick this year. I could see us going that route.

 

Just looking at prospects, there aren't a ton of top guys who are listed at 1B, and Mountcastle is right in the middle (by OPS) of MLB 1B. There just aren't a ton of guys that I'd want who are actually attainable. I think I'd go the Mountcastle plus platoon type guy approach to try to maximize the value from that position. Anthony Rizzo seems to have an opt out, so he'd be a good target.

Not that this really applies to this thread specifically, but the Rays pick this year is still baffling to me. I know they do weird stuff down there in St. Pete, but that was beyond bizarre to me for a first rounder.

[Jim'sKid26]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

 

I looked around the league rosters a bit and did not find any real trade targets I’d be interested in either (Tellez?).  

 

The guy I would love to see them go after is Nathaniel Low from the Rangers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowena01.shtml

He's 25, He had 25 2Bs and 25 HRs this year while putting up 3.2 WAR. He hits from the L side. It would take a lot to get him but he's Arb1 eligible in 2024. The Rangers spent heavily this last off season and won't make the playoffs. I'd kick the tires.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
fixed an error