Do we actually need a TOR starter?

[Bemorewins]

To answer the OP’s question, IMO yes we absolutely need a TOP #1 starter if we are planning to compete for a pennant.

Now if next year is another exploratory year “to see what we have with the guys we got”, then no. (I am firmly against this. - This approach IMO will be wasting another season unnecessarily of the guys we already have on the roster that can help us win now.)

The Clevingers and Lopezes of the world don’t really don’t anything for me in terms of getting us closer to the top. How much better (if at all) are they than what we already have?If we are going to trade for a pitcher with 2 years left, then both of those years should include us trying to do all we can with the rest of the roster to win the World Series.

I don’t know if Verlander will opt out . But if he does, he’s the exact kind of pitcher we should be in on. The kind of pitcher that we have confidence that when our season is on the line, he can take the ball and beat the likes of Manoah, Cease, Cole, etc.

[Camden_yardbird]

I think depth is far more important than TOR.  You have to get to the playoffs and that requires at least 7 starters.

[DrungoHazewood]

I kind of love these threads that ask "do we need X to contend" or "the Orioles will never win a World Series without Y".  Because you almost never have to have any one particular thing to win.  Or even to win the World Series.  So I take these kind of things as a challenge to find a team without that who did win.  TOR is pretty easy, lots of teams have won well over 90 games and even had postseason success with a best pitcher who looks like someone's #3.

You'll sometimes hear fans say you have to be very strong up the middle to win, you have to have a top shortstop to win. The 1968 Tigers won the World Series. The player who played the most innings at short for them was Ray Oyler, who hit .135/.213/.186, good for a .399 OPS.  Their backup was Tommy Matchick, who had a .534 OPS. Their 3rd SS was Dick Tracewski, who hit .156. It was so ugly that they took their starting center fielder, Mickey Stanley, and put him at short the last week of the season and through the World Series.  Stanley had never played a single inning at short in his professional career up to that point, not even in them minors. No innings at 3B or 2B, either.  It would be like the Orioles moving Austin Hays to short today, and they go on to win the Series.  

So whenever someone asks if the Orioles absolutely have to do some thing or they can't win the answer is almost certainly no.

Edited September 26, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[jamalshw]

28 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think depth is far more important than TOR.  You have to get to the playoffs and that requires at least 7 starters.

I'm not sure it has to be one or the other. I agree depth is incredibly important and would argue that the number we need is closer to 10 (I appreciate you said "at least").

With that said, I think we have reasonable depth with (in no particular order) Rodriguez, Bradish, Wells, Voth, Kremer, Watkins, Hall, Baumann, Zimmermann and maybe eventually by the end of the year Means, Povich and Johnson (though that's more 2024). 

I get the last few names under the "maybe" category are huge longshots (save for Means who I hope we see by August or so) and a couple of the names on the list aren't that inspiring at the end, but they're fine (in my opinion) as your 8-10 guys. I could also see a Harvey or Ellis type pitcher added to the AAA roster on a minors deal for added depth. And you also have Akin who can be a spot starter if needed or at least a bulk guy to get you 3+ innings if you need to have a bullpen game a couple times in a season. 

If we add a TOR starter, that pushes someone like Voth into depth role along with the rest. Hall can go back to AAA and stretch out again and work on some things and stay fresh. 

Add a Rodon or Verlander or deGrom (or even someone a bit lower on the totem pole in a trade like Pablo Lopez) to the top of the heap and that's a solid rotation given the upside of guys like Rodriguez and Hall and what we've seen from Bradish down the stretch and each of Wells, Kremer and Voth this year. 

If it was up to me, I would add a TOR starter and a solid right-handed hitter for the heart of the order (but that's a different topic for another thread). 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You'll sometimes hear fans say you have to be very strong up the middle to win, you have to have a top shortstop to win. The 1968 Tigers won the World Series. The player who played the most innings at short for them was Ray Oyler, who hit .135/.213/.186, good for a .399 OPS.  Their backup was Tommy Matchick, who had a .534 OPS. 

Matchick was responsible for one of the most infuriating games of my childhoood that year.  He hit a two-out, come from behind walk-off two run homer against Moe Drabowski and the Orioles on July 19, 1968, ruining a game I’d listened to on the radio in its entirety.   It was only the second homer of his career, and one of four he hit in his entire career.  Two of them came in that series with the Orioles, as he hit another off Jim Hardin two days later.  Don’t ask me why, but that Matchick homer always stuck with me.  54 years later it still bugs me that such a pathetic hitter beat us on a walk-off homer.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Matchick was responsible for one of the most infuriating games of my childhoood that year.  He hit a two-out, come from behind walk-off two run homer against Moe Drabowski and the Orioles on July 19, 1968, ruining a game I’d listened to on the radio in its entirety.   It was only the second homer of his career, and one of four he hit in his entire career.  Two of them came in that series with the Orioles, as he hit another off Jim Hardin two days later.  Don’t ask me why, but that Matchick homer always stuck with me.  54 years later it still bugs me that such a pathetic hitter beat us on a walk-off homer.

During that four-game series with the O's he went 5-for-14 with a single, a double, a triple, and two homers, four RBI, OPS'd 1.357, and had 0.999 WPA.

The entire rest of the season he had 41 hits in 213 AB (.192), five doubles, one triple, one homer, 10 RBI, OPS'd under .500, and had a WPA of about -1.5.

In his career he had 31 extra base hits in 292 games.  So that series was 1.3% of his career, and he had 13% of his extra base hits, or ten times what you would have expected.

And did you know that Matchick was an Oriole for three gmaes in late 1972?  Played three games at third base including a doubleheader on the last day of the season, and went 2-for-9 with a CS.  He was part of that infamous deal with the Brewers where they got Michael Herson and Mike Ferrero, we got him and Bruce Look.  Look never played for the Orioles, and Ferrero spent '72 as arguably the worst third baseman in MLB.

Edited September 26, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[Moose Milligan]

Live lookin at Frobby realizing that Matchick was an Oriole for 5 minutes:

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

During that four-game series with the O's he went 5-for-14 with a single, a double, a triple, and two homers, four RBI, OPS'd 1.357, and had 0.999 WPA.

The entire rest of the season he had 41 hits in 213 AB (.192), five doubles, one triple, one homer, 10 RBI, OPS'd under .500, and had a WPA of about -1.5.

In his career he had 31 extra base hits in 292 games.  So that series was 1.3% of his career, and he had 13% of his extra base hits, or ten times what you would have expected.

And did you know that Matchick was an Oriole for three gmaes in late 1972?  Played three games at third base including a doubleheader on the last day of the season, and went 2-for-9 with a CS.  He was part of that infamous deal with the Brewers where they got Michael Herson and Mike Ferrero, we got him and Bruce Look.  Look never played for the Orioles, and Ferrero spent '72 as arguably the worst third baseman in MLB.

Are you sure you know what infamous means?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Are you sure you know what infamous means?

 

[Three Run Homer]

The first thing to be clear about is that the O's should not bring back Jordan Lyles, nor should they sign anyone like him over the off season.  If you are serious about competing for a championship, part of that is no longer settling for mediocre veteran innings eaters in the starting rotation (or Ramon Urias in the starting lineup, but that's another thread).  As the old poem goes, when half-gods go, the gods arrive.  

We might be able to win next year with what we have--an opening day rotation of Kremer, Bradish, Voth, T. Wells and GrayRod, with Means returning to the fold at some point.  All of them have shown the ability to be above average starting pitchers.   

But sticking with what we have requires a lot of optimism about injuries and continued effectiveness.  More than likely one of the guys mentioned above gets hurt or is ineffective at some point next year, and your back up plan is hoping that DL Hall finds his command, or using Spenser Watkins and Michael Baumann in a pinch.  I think the best teams go into the season with more depth in the rotation.  It would also be good to have another lefty in the mix given the new OPACY dimension.  

The good news is that the O's don't need a complete overhaul of the rotation--going into the season (or even midway through the season) my thought was that their position player prospects were coming around nicely but that they would need to sign 2-3 guys to compete in 2023.  Now I'm thinking that they just need to sign one, preferably either a clear ace like Verlander or a very good left handed starter.   But at a minimum, someone who is a clear upgrade over Lyles.  

[NCRaven]

The only two TOR rotation pitchers likely to be available in free agency are Verlander and Rodon.  Both have some injury history.  I’d rather go in for a ridiculous average annual value for two or three years of Verlander than risk a longer term contract on Rodon.

As far as improving the hitting is concerned, I think having Rutschman and Henderson for a full season will be a major improvement.  Having any of Ortiz, Vavra, Norby (later in the year) or Westburg at 2B is likely to be a step up.

I’m pretty down on Hays at this point, but we have a lack of quality right handed hitting outfielders high up in the system.  Cowser, Kjerstad and Stowers are all lefties.  Some balance would be useful.  Other than Judge, there aren’t a lot of RH hitting OF’ers available in free agency.  So, if we can’t improve there, I guess we’ll have to keep trying with Austin.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

The only two TOR rotation pitchers likely to be available in free agency are Verlander and Rodon.  Both have some injury history.  I’d rather go in for a ridiculous average annual value for two or three years of Verlander than risk a longer term contract on Rodon.

As far as improving the hitting is concerned, I think having Rutschman and Henderson for a full season will be a major improvement.  Having any of Ortiz, Vavra, Norby (later in the year) or Westburg at 2B is likely to be a step up.

I’m pretty down on Hays at this point, but we have a lack of quality right handed hitting outfielders high up in the system.  Cowser, Kjerstad and Stowers are all lefties.  Some balance would be useful.  Other than Judge, there aren’t a lot of RH hitting OF’ers available in free agency.  So, if we can’t improve there, I guess we’ll have to keep trying with Austin.

I like JD Martinez on a short term contract.  He might not be interested because of the wall, but he's the type of vet bat we need that knows how to work a count.  

[wildcard]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:32 PM, eddie83 said:

-Wells is now hurt. How bad who knows. 

-You don’t want a 2012 Strasburg situation with GRod. If I was running team I would limit him early on. 
 

-Kremer deserves a spot.
-Bradish looks good now.

-I don’t see how anyone can project Hall early on next year. 
 

-Means is a mid season bonus help. 
 

- Voth is more of a 6th man to me. Watkins is AAA depth. 
 

 

The thing is we don’t know how good Kremer and Bradish will be next year. 

Voth gets very little respect on this board.   For the O's 15 starts 2.85 ERA, 1.19 WHIP.

 

[maybenxtyr]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Voth gets very little respect on this board.   For the O's 15 starts 2.85 ERA, 1.19 WHIP.

 

He's been a pleasant surprise for sure. The only thing I'd like to see is if he can perhaps go a little longer when he's pitching well. Maybe that's something that can be worked on during the off season and spring.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Are you sure you know what infamous means?

That has to be among the worst 450 trades in Orioles history.  They regretted it for dozens of minutes.  Teeth were gnashed.