Wednesday, September 28: Orioles again try to clinch 4th place and .500 season in Boston
By
SteveA
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By Can_of_corn · Posted
I don't think it's anything close to 90%. As of June the brand recognition of the cereal was under 90%. If you have two pretty similar nicknames isn't it just common sense to go with the one that isn't the street name of a drug? And for the record all I was doing was giving a personal preference. I never said anyone couldn't do whatever the heck they wanted. -
By spiritof66 · Posted
This is the story, or part of the story, of the last two Orioles' seasons: trying to balance winning games and reaching the postseason (and, last year and and for a long time this year, a division title) with building for the future. However you balance those two, there is a risk of harming the team. The way the Orioles have been and are being built, relying on a bunch of young position players to blossom at around the same time, enhanced that risk. Sometimes these two objectives line up pretty well, after weakening the team for a short time, as they did with Westburg, Henderson and Rutschman, and to a lesser degree Cowser. Sometimes the objectives don't fit together very well, as has been the case with Holliday and Mayo. The possibility of that misfit was, and is, inherent in the way this team was built. Maybe the harm to the team's overall performance from playing the young guys could have been reduced by better coaching or more effective communication with the coaches, but there was really no way for this team to avoid the problem. -
He's always looked calm and capable in his mlb at-bats. Let's the ball come to him, as they say. Am optimistic. -
Position Players: 2023: 105 wRC+, 16.0 BsR, 54.9 Off, -26.3 Def, 23.8 WAR 2024: 113 wRC+, 1.2 BsR, 90.8 Off, -26.1 Def, 27.0 WAR The 2023 batters had a clutch score of 8.39. That number is -1.35 this season. The 2023 batters had an xwOBA of .319 (15th). That number is .328 this season (6th). The RISP was also much better last year (as we all know). Not only did they hit for a much higher average (.287 versus .246 this year), but their ISO with RISP jumped up to .195 (it was .166 in all situations). The defense is about as valuable as last year even though they seem much less reliable. Gunnar has been more valuable defensively according to Fangraphs, the catchers have been worse, Westburg and Mullins have been slightly worse, but Frazier was awful last year at 2B (as was Hicks in the OF) and removing him while adding an elite defender in Cowser puts them about even to last year. The base running is nowhere near as good. The pitching is slightly worse than last year (18.3 WAR and 3.91 ERA last year, 16.5 WAR and 3.93 ERA this year) but they’ve also had a ton of innings soaked up (mostly due to injuries) by guys that aren’t going to pitch for them in the playoffs. Last year, the below group threw 259 innings and gave up 159 ER’s (5.53 ERA): Vespi, Irvin, Zimmerman, Fuji, Voth, Lopez, Gillaspie, Flaherty, Akin, Garrett, Givens, Bazardo, McKenna This year, from they have gotten 366.1 IP from the below group, while giving up 229 ER’s (5.63 ERA): Vieira, McCann, Krook, Heasley, Rogers, McDermott, Ramirez. Wells, Smith, Povich, Kimbrel, Irvin, Tate, Baker That means that the rest of the pitching staff in 2023 (besides the above group) threw 1194.2 IP, giving up 472 ER for a 3.55 ERA. In 2024 besides the above group, the rest of the staff has combined for 1022.2 IP, giving up 378 ER for a 3.33 ERA. The 2023 pitching staff had a 6.03 clutch score and a 73.5 LOB%. In 2024, those numbers are -0.93 and 71.4 %. The 2023 pitchers had an xwOBA of .317 (15th). That number is .310 this season (T-9th). In the offseason, a lot of people were saying this team might be better than last year but finish with a worse record. As frustrating as the last 3 months have been, you could easily make that case. The offense has been better overall, but much worse with RISP and less clutch. The core pitching group has arguably been as good as last year’s, they just had a lot more injuries and innings thrown by fringe guys that won’t be pitching in the playoffs. FWIW, Texas was one of the least clutch teams in the regular season last year and then were unsurprisingly the most clutch team in the playoffs. The Orioles followed up their extremely clutch regular season by being the 2nd least clutch pitching team (only PHI was worse and they played an extra 2 series) and 3rd least clutch batting team (only PHI and MIN were worse - MIN played an extra series as well). So TLDR. They have arguably been a better team than last year that has dealt with many more injuries, had a lot more PA’s and IP’s from worse players due to those injuries, and have been extremely unclutch. Some of that might be luck, some of it might be skill, but it could change at any time. -
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By LookitsPuck · Posted
Even if they make the playoffs, Bautista isn't going to make it back in time. I do think the O's can't go into next season assuming Bautista is going to be healthy or effective. They really need to acquire a couple bullpen arms and not keep getting folks off the scrap heap. And they can't rely on Soto or even Seranthony to have a key part of the pen. I think Elias has tremendously struck out with anything and everything Phillies bullpen pieces (Kimbrel, Soto, Seranthony). Seranthony has a 0.3 WAR in 22 games, Soto -0.2 in nearly all low leverage situations, and Kimbrel with a -1.1. And the O's are out double digit millions, Seth Johnson, Moises Chace, Austin Hays for what amounts to negative value across the 3 of them. That's...not great. Could things change in 2025 w/ Seranthony and Soto? Sure! I mean, Seranthony looks decent, but Soto is a situational arm who can be downright dominant or otherworldly incompetent. But Elias can not go into 2025 without picking up 2 reliable bullpen arms. -
This post would have been worthy of its own thread. If I can just augment this, last year’s team was 0.36 runs/game better than average on offense, and 0.43 better than average on run prevention. This year’s team is 0.40 better than average on offense, but only 0.21 better on run prevention. So, the offense actually has been a little better than last year’s relative to the league, while run prevention has been worse. However, the offense has been very problematic the last 5 weeks or so. As to bullpen regression, Bautista (10 ER in 61.0 IP) vs. Kimbrel (31 ER in 52.1 IP) explains about 2/3 of the regression all by itself.
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