Fangraphs: 7 top 100 guys

[Just Regular]

I'm sure the 2028 is a placeholder.    Fangraphs Longenhagen's content in the interwebs is known for both its depth and its slowness (that's nothing about him, his work is really good, he just can't do what Tony does for all 30 teams in real time).

Remember ~June when he crabbed in a chat about not being able to re-evaluate Gunnar Henderson and stuck to his offseason list contention he was Top 50-ish, and now he is his #1 guy.    He was belatedly finishing last offseason's lists into April-May.

He has held Gunnar at a 65 (shy of last year's Adley 70), computing to about $50mm less in the BOARD's overall Farm rankings.

BAL is still 1st ~$375mm, about the same as TB-CLE close behind, and those three far ahead of all other American League teams.

 

[Sports Guy]

They have Druw Jones ETA for 2028 as well

[ShoelesJoe]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You know other teams have good prospects too, right?

Nick Yorke is a twenty year old 2nd baseman in the Red Sox system who put up a .668 OPS this season in high A ball. In 2022 Connor Norby put up a .960 OPS at AA and then 1.123 OPS at AAA. FG lists Yorke as the #90 prospect in all of baseball, and Norby is what .... #250 or there abouts? 

Unless Yorke projects as the defensive equivalent of Roberto Alomar AND Norby somehow doesn't even know where 2nd base is then these ratings are absurd to the point of laughable. Yes, Norby is 22 months older than Yorke, but I dare say there isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't rather have him in their system than Yorke. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by ShoelesJoe

[OriolesMagic83]

5 prospects in the top 50 w/ Mayo at #53.  Pretty amazing for a farm that was just about last when Elias took over. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Nick Yorke is a twenty year old 2nd baseman in the Red Sox system who put up a .668 OPS this season in high A ball. In 2022 Connor Norby put up a .960 OPS at AA and then 1.123 OPS at AAA. FG lists Yorke as the #90 prospect in all of baseball, and Norby is what .... #250 or there abouts? 

Unless Yorke projects as the defensive equivalent of Roberto Alomar AND Norby somehow doesn't even know where 2nd base is then these ratings are absurd to the point of laughable. Yes, Norby is 22 months older than Yorke, but I dare say there isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't rather have him in their system than Yorke. 

The idea that you are poo pooing almost 2 full years of age difference says it all. 
 

[connja]

6 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Interesting that they believe Holliday won't arrive until 2028. That's a bit longer than Jackson's plans. 

If it takes the #1 pick in the draft 6 seasons to get to the majors, it's a fail.

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that you are poo pooing almost 2 full years of age difference says it all. 
 

As much as I respect the Fangraphs guy it looks like he doesn't like to move off of prospects too quickly.   I'm assuming he had Yorke higher last year when he had a big season in low A and even a .977 OPS in 87 AB's in A+.   Still, unless he was injured, that's a very disappointing year this year at age 20 in high A.   Norby is 2 years older but he's one level ahead as well and performed much better at that level.   I certainly think you can make a case that Norby's season at 21-22 in AA was more impressive than Yorke's age 20 season in High A.

I also noticed that he's still got Austin Martin at #87.   That's hard to fathom.

At the beginning of the year, Yorke was ranked #33 so he's dropped quite a bit.    I suspect Norby is on the rise.   So if you went by this season and took age into account I bet that Norby would be ranked higher but considering that Yorke was already highly ranked and was a #17 overall draft choice they aren't ready to slide him off the list just yet.

Edited October 8, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

As much as I respect the Fangraphs guy it looks like he doesn't like to move off of prospects too quickly.   I'm assuming he had Yorke higher last year when he had a big season in low A and even a .977 OPS in 87 AB's in A+.   Still, unless he was injured, that's a very disappointing year this year at age 20 in high A.   Norby is 2 years older but he's one level ahead as well and performed much better at that level.   I certainly think you can make a case that Norby's season at 21-22 in AA was more impressive than Yorke's age 20 season in High A.

I also noticed that he's still got Austin Martin at #87.   That's hard to fathom.

At the beginning of the year, Yorke was ranked #33 so he's dropped quite a bit.    I suspect Norby is on the rise.   So if you went by this season and took age into account I bet that Norby would be ranked higher but considering that Yorke was already highly ranked and was a #17 overall draft choice they aren't ready to slide him off the list just yet.

Well and there was a reason why he was ranked 33rd right?  

He dropped a lot, as he should have after a poor year but it doesn’t mean the talent is gone.  There are lots of factors in play.

And there are probably lots of other players whose fan base believes they should be ranked.

I think people making blanket statements about how this guy or that should be on these lists likely have zero idea about most other organizations.

Also, it doesn’t matter if Norby is on these lists or not.  All that matters is that he develops.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well and there was a reason why he was ranked 33rd right?  

He dropped a lot, as he should have after a poor year but it doesn’t mean the talent is gone.  There are lots of factors in play.

And there are probably lots of other players whose fan base believes they should be ranked.

I think people making blanket statements about how this guy or that should be on these lists likely have zero idea about most other organizations.

Also, it doesn’t matter if Norby is on these lists or not.  All that matters is that he develops.

Might even be a fan base that complains about only getting seven guys in the top 100.

 

These are just lists, they don't change the actual odds of a player being a contributor to the ML team.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Nick Yorke is a twenty year old 2nd baseman in the Red Sox system who put up a .668 OPS this season in high A ball. In 2022 Connor Norby put up a .960 OPS at AA and then 1.123 OPS at AAA. FG lists Yorke as the #90 prospect in all of baseball, and Norby is what .... #250 or there abouts? 

Unless Yorke projects as the defensive equivalent of Roberto Alomar AND Norby somehow doesn't even know where 2nd base is then these ratings are absurd to the point of laughable. Yes, Norby is 22 months older than Yorke, but I dare say there isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't rather have him in their system than Yorke. 

I don’t think we really know where Norby is ranked, except not in the top 100.   I don’t think Longenhagen has regraded everyone he ranked post-2021.  

As to Yorke, looks like he had some injuries in 2022, as he only played in 80 games.  So, that may explain his mediocre numbers.  
 

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we really know where Norby is ranked, except not in the top 100.   I don’t think Longenhagen has regraded everyone he ranked post-2021.  

As to Yorke, looks like he had some injuries in 2022, as he only played in 80 games.  So, that may explain his mediocre numbers.  
 

Would YOU have Norby in the top 100?

How about Yorke?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

Would YOU have Norby in the top 100?

How about Yorke?

I am not qualified to do that.  I don’t even really consider myself qualified to rank the Orioles’ prospects.   I have opinions based on stats and what other people tell me.   But if I watched, say, Norfolk play for a week I doubt I could give an informed opinion of who was better between Westburg, Norby and Ortiz.  I’d just know who had a good week and who didn’t.  I leave it to Tony and others who actually know something about scouting to make those evaluations.   

[owknows]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am not qualified to do that.  I don’t even really consider myself qualified to rank the Orioles’ prospects.   I have opinions based on stats and what other people tell me.   But if I watched, say, Norfolk play for a week I doubt I could give an informed opinion of who was better between Westburg, Norby and Ortiz.  I’d just know who had a good week and who didn’t.  I leave it to Tony and others who actually know something about scouting to make those evaluations.   

I guess my question was intended to underscore the idea that most of those who offer opinions aren't really much more qualified. And that in this particular case (Norby v. Yorke) that it is entirely likely that Norby is top 100... and Yorke is not.

There are so many teams, players, games, matchups, levels of experience, pedigrees at play that no one could possibly keep track of all of it... or event a significant portion of it. So in the end... it all comes down to stats, and if you're lucky... a few games you might be lucky enough to see.

Given this limited data set, some people are better at reading the wispy tea leaves than others. Tony's pretty good at it. But as I've found repeatedly in life.. even with professionals. (doctors, lawyers, engineers).. others... are not. So I feel this obligates me to know enough about as many possible situations in life to be able to form my own opinions. And given what I've read of your contributions here.. I'd wager you have a similar approach to life, and to your interests. And for this reason, I'd place significant stock in your opinions, independent of your confidence in them.

(wow, I wrote a lot more than I intended there..  probably that Pinot Noir speaking)

 

[ShoelesJoe]

Let me add some more data points to the discussion wrt Norby's prospect rank. This list has him as the 15th best Oriole prospect right now. Keep in mind that Norby put up something like a 1.000 OPS in 73 games between AA and AAA this season.

These are some of the O's minor leaguers ranked ahead of Norby on the FG list:

Heston Kjerstad -- .674 OPS at A+ (Sixteen months older than Norby)

Terrin Vavra -- .886 OPS at AAA, and .667 with the Orioles. (Three years older than Norby)

Dylan Beavers -- .999 OPS in 16 games at A Ball, and .661 in 4 games at A+ (Ten months younger than Norby)

Kyle Stowers -- .884 OPS at AAA, and .724 with the Orioles. (Two and a half years older than Norby)

Jud Fabian -- 1.322 OPS in ten games at A Ball, .508 in eight games at A+ (Three months younger than Norby)

 

Fabian I might understand because he's supposed to be a good defensive CF. But my understanding is that the rest of these guys are no great shakes with the glove, so their primary value should be in their offensive capabilities.  Not a single one of them were as productive at as high a level as Norby this season. 

We supposedly have the #1 minor league system in 2022, correct? If you asked the FG guys who led the #1 minor league system in HRs this year I'd bet dollars to donuts they'd have no clue. Just the fact that Norby hit more HRs than any other Oriole minor leaguer in 2022 should have put him in the top 100. Now, maybe Norby is a flash in the pan who'll flail helplessly when he finally faces major league pitchers, ala Brandon Wood. Of course the same could be said for any and all of the guys in the top 100. All we know for sure is that this year Norby's numbers were as good or better than a whole lot of the guys who made that list. IMHO his omission does some discredit to the people who put that list together. 

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by ShoelesJoe

[Chaka Garcia]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As much as I respect the Fangraphs guy it looks like he doesn't like to move off of prospects too quickly.   I'm assuming he had Yorke higher last year when he had a big season in low A and even a .977 OPS in 87 AB's in A+.   Still, unless he was injured, that's a very disappointing year this year at age 20 in high A.   Norby is 2 years older but he's one level ahead as well and performed much better at that level.   I certainly think you can make a case that Norby's season at 21-22 in AA was more impressive than Yorke's age 20 season in High A.

I also noticed that he's still got Austin Martin at #87.   That's hard to fathom.

At the beginning of the year, Yorke was ranked #33 so he's dropped quite a bit.    I suspect Norby is on the rise.   So if you went by this season and took age into account I bet that Norby would be ranked higher but considering that Yorke was already highly ranked and was a #17 overall draft choice they aren't ready to slide him off the list just yet.

I do wonder why the respect for Fangraphs prospect list in general. I had the same thought when I looked through their rankings, seem like it needs a refresh most of the time, seeing prospects who should be dropped like Yorke and former draft picks - even Mayo, he’s one of our guys, but surprise he’s that high - I get 20 yr who made AA, but definitely down year.