Who are your picks for a 2023 breakout?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't know if he fits the stated criteria, but my pick for a breakout is Seth Johnson. Grabbed by Tampa two picks ahead of Gunnar Henderson in the second round of the 2019 draft. Luke, our uber draft guru at the time, was really high on him. He put up a 2.81 ERA in 39 minor league games, 172 K's vs 47 walks in 137 innings.  Given Luke's enthusiasm and Tampa's history with drafting pitchers I have to think there's some serious talent there. Now, Johnson had TJS in August (which is why we were able to get him as part of the Mancini trade), so he probably won't be back to throwing till the middle of 2023. He'll be 24 years old, but if he comes back healthy I have to think Elias will have him on the fast track through our minors. 

How can a player be a breakout candidate for 2023 when he won’t be able to pitch until 2024?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How can a player be a breakout candidate for 2023 when he won’t be able to pitch until 2024?

I guess there are some optimistic scenarios where he squeezes in a few appearances in 2023.   Not enough to really demonstrate a “breakout,” though.  

[ShoelesJoe]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How can a player be a breakout candidate for 2023 when he won’t be able to pitch until 2024?

Since when do pitchers take two years to recover from TJS? 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Since when do pitchers take two years to recover from TJS? 

He had his TJ suergery August 3, 2022.    It’s doubtful he pitches in an actual minor league game in 2023.

[CharmCityHokie]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He had his TJ suergery August 3, 2022.    It’s doubtful he pitches in an actual minor league game in 2023.

And there in lies the quandary with trading for Johnson. He's got to go on the 40-man this offseason or be exposed to the Rule 5, he won't be back until 2024, when he'll be 26 years old, and he has a total of 27 innings at A+ which is the highest level he's competed at. The Orioles will have to decide to either put him on the 60-day IL to clear a spot on the active 40, but also pay him MLB money, OR they can option him for next season, and then again in the '24 season when he can actually start pitching again and then will hold a final option on him for his age-27 season which is when we can reasonably expect he may be ready for the majors. The second choice of optioning him however will be a black hole on the 40-man roster. It's a complicated risk for sure. 

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'll go with Ignacio Feliz. Has some control issues but 13 K/9 is impressive.

I like that pick, if he remains with the Orioles. He should be a MiLB free agent now with 6 years of service time (I'm fairly certain 2020 still counted as a service year despite there not being any minor league play)

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, CharmCityHokie said:

And there in lies the quandary with trading for Johnson. He's got to go on the 40-man this offseason or be exposed to the Rule 5, he won't be back until 2024, when he'll be 26 years old, and he has a total of 27 innings at A+ which is the highest level he's competed at. The Orioles will have to decide to either put him on the 60-day IL to clear a spot on the active 40, but also pay him MLB money, OR they can option him for next season, and then again in the '24 season when he can actually start pitching again and then will hold a final option on him for his age-27 season which is when we can reasonably expect he may be ready for the majors. The second choice of optioning him however will be a black hole on the 40-man roster. It's a complicated risk for sure. 

I am starting to wonder if he needs to be protected this Winter. If a team takes him, will they be willing to keep him on Rule 5 for a year and a half to two years? 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

He had his TJ suergery August 3, 2022.    It’s doubtful he pitches in an actual minor league game in 2023.

Means had TJS in April, and he started throwing last week. If Johnson is on a similar schedule he'll be tossing in February or March. If things go well I can see him getting into minor league games by July or August at the latest. There's a lot of ifs and depends, but with a little luck Johnson should get in about two months of actual mound time in 2023. 

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Means had TJS in April, and he started throwing last week. If Johnson is on a similar schedule he'll be tossing in February or March. If things go well I can see him getting into minor league games by July or August at the latest. There's a lot of ifs and depends, but with a little luck Johnson should get in about two months of actual mound time in 2023. 

My thoughts as well. Those two months will be very controlled and limited. He might have to be a reliever going forward, at least for a little while. 

[Sports Guy]

Mayo

[Jammer7]

Top 30:

Jud Fabian CF

Carter Baumler RHP

Not currently in the top 30:

Isaac Deleon 3B

Trace Bright RHP

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I am starting to wonder if he needs to be protected this Winter. If a team takes him, will they be willing to keep him on Rule 5 for a year and a half to two years? 

I don’t believe they would have made the trade if they weren’t going to protect him.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Means had TJS in April, and he started throwing last week. If Johnson is on a similar schedule he'll be tossing in February or March. If things go well I can see him getting into minor league games by July or August at the latest. There's a lot of ifs and depends, but with a little luck Johnson should get in about two months of actual mound time in 2023. 

Normally it takes anywhere from 12-18 months to return to the mound in a game, with the average being 15 months.  So, it’s possible that Johnson will make it back in 2023, but it’s more likely that he won’t.  

[Aristotelian]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mayo

Using Tony's power rankings as the baseline, he would have to leap over Grayson and Holliday. I really hope that doesn't happen because that would probably mean something has gone horribly wrong.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Using Tony's power rankings as the baseline, he would have to leap over Grayson and Holliday. I really hope that doesn't happen because that would probably mean something has gone horribly wrong.

He is ranked high (don’t think he will be third) but he was a little disappointing this year.

Can take a huge leap in 2023.