Who has more trade value, Urias or Mateo?

[Frobby]

The attention that Urias and Mateo have gotten this week has been nice.  It seems likely that the O’s will at least dangle one or both of them in a trade this offseason, though it’s not clear if either actually will be dealt.  So which one has more trade value?

Urias is entering his age 29 season and has four years of team control remaining .  In his career, he’s been worth 5.6 rWAR, 3.6 fWAR in 690 PA, with a career OPS+ of 109.   Last year, he was worth 3.6 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR in 445 PA, with an OPS+ of 103, hitting 16 homers and knocking in 51.  He led all AL 3B in the four major advanced defensive metrics (Rtot, Rdrs, UZR and OAA), despite starting only 84 games at 3B and playing in 98.  That earned Urias the Gold Glove at 3B.  He also started 19 games at 2B and 4 at SS.   He missed several weeks with various injuries.

Mateo is entering his age 28 season and is arbitration eligible for the first time, under team control for 3 years.  In his career, he’s been worth 3.3 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR in 771 PA, posting an OPS+ of 80.  In 2022, he was worth 3.3 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR with an OPS+ of 81.   He led the AL in steals with 35, and was caught only 9 times, a healthy 80% success rate.  Defensively, he did not finish in the top three for Gold Glove but won the Fielding Bible award as the best defensive SS in MLB, finishing at or near the top in the various advanced metrics.

Pros for Urias: he’s got one more year of team control than Mateo, is the better hitter, and really has a two-year track record as a solid major leaguer.  He has a significantly higher rWAR total in fewer at bats, though fWAR has them much closer, with Mateo actually slightly ahead in 2022.

Pros for Mateo: he’s a year younger, plays the more difficult defensive position at a very high level, and has blazing speed.  He hasn’t hit nearly as well but there are signs of untapped potential there.  He also was more durable than Urias in 2022.   

Overall, I think their trade value is similar, but I think Urias’ extra year of team control makes him the more valuable of the two from the standpoint of trade value.   

Edited November 2, 2022 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

The biggest key is where do they see Henderson playing.  That’s more key than whether Urías or Mateo are more valuable.   I think it’s 3B for Henderson especially with Ortiz and Holliday in the system.

To answer your question, your opening post has me thinking that Urías has more trade value.  More of a sure thing than Mateo.

Edited November 2, 2022 by RZNJ

[Jim'sKid26]

I have to say that this really speaks to the quality of the O's front office finding guys who can really contribute at the MLB level. The FB award winning SS and the GG winning 3B for essentially peanuts. Whatever they get on the trade market for these two will worth be much more than they paid for them IMHO.

[Sports Guy]

I would lean Urias can he can actually hit the ball.

[Sports Guy]

Hard to see how these 2, along with Vavra are on the team in 2023.

I guess you could stick Vavra in AAA to start but that seems like a waste.  
 

I think one of them needs to go.

[NedFromYork]

Henderson at 3B/SS, Mateo at SS, Urias at 2B/3B to start the season, Vavra backup 2B/LF.  When Westburg joins the team it's okay, it's a long season and need depth so injuries may work things out without having to do anything.  When Ortiz is ready definitely have to do something which would be Mateo or Urias likely going and the other Util.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hard to see how these 2, along with Vavra are on the team in 2023.

I guess you could stick Vavra in AAA to start but that seems like a waste.  
 

I think one of them needs to go.

It doesn’t hurt to have a little depth in AAA, for once.  But one or more trades is definitely an option.

[btdart20]

I'm not convinced Mr. Market will value any untapped hitting potential we think Mateo has.  I think they'll see that part of his game as a net negative as a hole to build around (just as we would if we keep him).  But they will absolutely see the real defensive and speed skills he has.  He's likely viewed as having 2 plus tools (fielding, speed), 1 solid tool (arm) and 2 negative tools (hit, power).  For qualified SS on FG, Mateo ranks 14 in fWAR but 19th in OPS (.062 points behind #14) to be a 'top half' hitter.  Mr. Market would have to be a team with offense elsewhere.

I do think the GG for Urias put some extra shine on his resume from Mr. Market's perspective, especially framed with (IIRC) a down year for 3B overall and two solid years for Urias offensively.  He's likely viewed as 1 plus tool (fielding 3B), 2 solid tools (hit, power) and 2 negative tools (speed, arm).  Urias didn't have enough 3B ABs to qualify, but lowering the threshhold to 400 PAs he slots in at 15th for fWAR.  It also puts him 21st for OPS.  Mr. Market would be a more diverse group.

Until I started going down the positional scarcity research, I was thinking Urias definitely had the higher market value.  But I'm not so sure now... 

To continue stirring the pot, both would be an upgrade in MIA.  Personally, I would "trust the process" and go the road less travelled of shopping both of them as I think this is max value for them.  

[Sports Guy]

Mullins and Mateo or Urias for Lopez and Cabrera would be great.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I would lean Urias can he can actually hit the ball.

For what it's worth, the Trade Simulator agrees with you. They have Urias as 9.1, Mateo as 3.2. I think a lot of teams wouldn't even consider Mateo because of the bat. 

That said, I would also incline to trading Urias and keeping Mateo - assuming we get competitive value for him - because Gunnar is ready to take over 3B now and Holiday is a bit further off. Mateo could also have a role as a utility guy/pinch runner even with Gunnar or Holiday at SS, whereas Urias appears to be a one trick pony at 3B. 

[LookinUp]

Have to assume that teams put some kind of premium on range of middle infielders without the shift moving forward. That would increase Mateo's value. Not sure how much.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Have to assume that teams put some kind of premium on range of middle infielders without the shift moving forward. That would increase Mateo's value. Not sure how much.

I think the amount by which banning the shift is going to increase the importance of range is very overrated.  You are going to see guys’ range tested no matter where you put them on the field.   But, no point in arguing about it.   We’ll see what happens next year.  

[btdart20]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins and Mateo or Urias for Lopez and Cabrera would be great.

Would Mateo and Urias get it done for Lopez or Cabrera?  I doubt it.  But if so, that's my preference.  Mateo/Urias/Hays for Lopez+ or Cabrera+?  I'd do that before Mullins too (since replacing Mullins would be tougher within opportunity cost budgeting).  But as others have said too, not sure Elias and co. have the appetite for a complete reboot of a high caliber IF defense.  I'd still gird my loins and trust the system we have in place that has identified and/or developed the skills needed in the IF.

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the amount by which banning the shift is going to increase the importance of range is very overrated.  You are going to see guys’ range tested no matter where you put them on the field.   But, no point in arguing about it.   We’ll see what happens next year.  

Is this just your assumption or has this been mentioned somewhere?

Just curious. I could see the argument.

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Would Mateo and Urias get it done for Lopez or Cabrera?  I doubt it.  But if so, that's my preference.  Mateo/Urias/Hays for Lopez+ or Cabrera+?  I'd do that before Mullins too (since replacing Mullins would be tougher within opportunity cost budgeting).  But as others have said too, not sure Elias and co. have the appetite for a complete reboot of a high caliber IF defense.  I'd still gird my loins and trust the system we have in place that has identified and/or developed the skills needed in the IF.

Mateo/Urias aren't bringing significant value without being linked to better (higher upside) players.