SP Trade Targets Compared

[oriole]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm just saying, Holliday is the reigning first overall draft pick and a legitimate 5 tool prospect at a premium position. He should be viewed as a core building block until he proves that he isn't.

I’m not advocating for trading him. I’m indifferent ultimately, but my whole point was leaning towards not trading anyone. That list was just infield depth in the system that you could potentially trade from without creating a position of need. Holliday would be at the top of the list in value.

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Honestly Eovaldi is not a bad call. I could see that happening.

Too Injury prone.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Too Injury prone.

Of course.

Where is the list of the guys that are really good, won't get injured and don't cost a lot?  I think the O's should sign a couple of those guys.

[Just Regular]

I don't often call Jim Bowden the winning pundit, but scanning those Bleacher Report and The Athletic links think Bowden's guesses are closer to the mark.     The AAV's will wobble, but a lot of the game at this level of established pitcher going for one of their career's centerpiece contracts is the YEARS.     

The World Series has also taught me Zach Eflin as another medium guy out there who I believe presents better $$$/WAR than Lyles' expensive option, though maybe not the 1-year term.

5 years - Rodon

4 years - Eovaldi, Bassitt, Taillon

3 years - Senga, Eflin, Verlander

2 years - Ty. Anderson, M. Perez, deGrom

1 year - Kershaw    (he's basically on the Red Sox Tim Wakefield lifetime 1-year option lifestyle unless he feels like pitching for TEX)

I feel Fangraphs crowdsourcers' results coming in the next week or two get a wisdom of crowds edge on Bowden.

[wildcard]

On these two lists the one that seem to fit the O's are:

2/34 for Abreu

And whoever Holt likes out of:

2/24 for Anderson (Looks like a Means clone)

Clevinger, Syndergaard, Taillon, Wacha, Walker

All are probably better than Lyles IMO.

I don't see the O's going more that 2 years plus an option.

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course.

Where is the list of the guys that are really good, won't get injured and don't cost a lot?  I think the O's should sign a couple of those guys.

4/90 may be someone's wet dream for Eovaldi but not Elias is my guess.

[MarCakes21]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how they have deGrom and Verlander as a fit for the O's but not someone like Bassitt.

I would also love to see statistical evidence showing how the style of shift being outlawed cost Rizzo 30+ points in batting average.

I thought that was odd too.  We're in on the huge names, deGrom, Verlander, Bogarts, Turner, but not the mid-tier guys like Bassit, Eovaldi, Anderson, Perez

[OriolesMagic83]

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I thought that was odd too.  We're in on the huge names, deGrom, Verlander, Bogarts, Turner, but not the mid-tier guys like Bassit, Eovaldi, Anderson, Perez

The reason I can see that is Elias doesn't want to give long term contracts to pitchers.  What long term contracts has Houston given to pitchers?  They could have locked up Verlander for several years when he first came over.  Lucky for them, Verlander has been happy to go a year or 2 at a time.  It is likely that Elias is thinking about the total expenditure for a pitcher whether it is say $150 mill over 3, 4, 5 or 6 years.  I don't see Elias signing DeGrom or Verlander, but I could see him trying to sign a second tier pitcher to a Correa/Bauer type deal.  For example, signing Bassit to a 2 year/$50 mill deal, instead of a 4 year/$80 mill deal. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The reason I can see that is Elias doesn't want to give long term contracts to pitchers.  What long term contracts has Houston given to pitchers?  They could have locked up Verlander for several years when he first came over.  Lucky for them, Verlander has been happy to go a year or 2 at a time.  It is likely that Elias is thinking about the total expenditure for a pitcher whether it is say $150 mill over 3, 4, 5 or 6 years.  I don't see Elias signing DeGrom or Verlander, but I could see him trying to sign a second tier pitcher to a Correa/Bauer type deal.  For example, signing Bassit to a 2 year/$50 mill deal, instead of a 4 year/$80 mill deal. 

What position players has he signed to a long term deal?

[Just Regular]

Switching to the other end of the BTV median values, here are some underwater SP who might be effectively free talent-wise if an acquiring Club took on enough of their balance owed.     

-50, Jose Berrios and Robbie Ray      (mostly just trolling rivals to be the AL's future sixth-best team here)

-35, Madison Bumgarner

-30, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Freeland and Chris Sale

-20, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-Jin Ryu

-15, Marco Gonzales

-10, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks

-5, Miles Mikolas and Kenta Maeda

The '22 Diamondbacks had a strong year, kind of the Orioles of the National League.    Honestly not sure what lane for '23 their Owner and GM will come up with.

Not listed is Chris Flexen, who for SEA is in a Lyles-similar position, except with a much smaller option.    To the extent 5th starter roles barely exist anymore and they have Castillo-Ray-Gilbert-Kirby in the lead dog spots, easy to imagine Dipoto hoping to do something different with the Gonzales (and Flexen if exercised) commitments.

[NCRaven]

On 11/3/2022 at 8:33 AM, SpOkane said:

Not a Belieber?

I saw his face, I’m not a BeLieber, couldn’t pitch Bieber, if I tried.

[rm5678]

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Switching to the other end of the BTV median values, here are some underwater SP who might be effectively free talent-wise if an acquiring Club took on enough of their balance owed.     

-50, Jose Berrios and Robbie Ray      (mostly just trolling rivals to be the AL's future sixth-best team here)

-35, Madison Bumgarner

-30, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Freeland and Chris Sale

-20, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-Jin Ryu

-15, Marco Gonzales

-10, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks

-5, Miles Mikolas and Kenta Maeda

The '22 Diamondbacks had a strong year, kind of the Orioles of the National League.    Honestly not sure what lane for '23 their Owner and GM will come up with.

Not listed is Chris Flexen, who for SEA is in a Lyles-similar position, except with a much smaller option.    To the extent 5th starter roles barely exist anymore and they have Castillo-Ray-Gilbert-Kirby in the lead dog spots, easy to imagine Dipoto hoping to do something different with the Gonzales (and Flexen if exercised) commitments.

I doubt that Robbie Ray would have any interest in playing under Brandon Hyde lol.

And I would pass on Berrios and Kikuchi, they didn't impress me this season although Berrios definitely got better as the season went on.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Switching to the other end of the BTV median values, here are some underwater SP who might be effectively free talent-wise if an acquiring Club took on enough of their balance owed.     

-50, Jose Berrios and Robbie Ray      (mostly just trolling rivals to be the AL's future sixth-best team here)

-35, Madison Bumgarner

-30, Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Freeland and Chris Sale

-20, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-Jin Ryu

-15, Marco Gonzales

-10, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks

-5, Miles Mikolas and Kenta Maeda

The '22 Diamondbacks had a strong year, kind of the Orioles of the National League.    Honestly not sure what lane for '23 their Owner and GM will come up with.

Not listed is Chris Flexen, who for SEA is in a Lyles-similar position, except with a much smaller option.    To the extent 5th starter roles barely exist anymore and they have Castillo-Ray-Gilbert-Kirby in the lead dog spots, easy to imagine Dipoto hoping to do something different with the Gonzales (and Flexen if exercised) commitments.

I’d take a shot at Stroman 

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What position players has he signed to a long term deal?

I think he’s signing Correa.

[Camden Yards]

Any interest in signing Kluber? Threw more innings last year than he has since 2018. Might have worn down toward the end. Will he be better than Lyles.