Orioles 2022 #9 Prospect Connor Norby - 2B/LF

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft, Norby comes in as the #9 prospect after hitting more home runs than anyone in the system.

Connor Norby
Pos: 2B
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22
2022 Level: A+/AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/50
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 50/60
Run: 50/50
Defense: 45/50

Stats

Most Likely Future Role: Everyday Left fielder
Ceiling: 1st Division Left fielder or 2nd Division Second baseman

What we know: Nobody took a bigger step forward power wise then the 22-year old Norby did, smacking 29 bombs between three levels in the system. He started the year in the tough hitting environment at Aberdeen slashing just .237/.311/.425/.736 with a 23.9% K% and just a 8.6% BB%. Despite the struggles, the Orioles promoted him to AA on June 28th and instead of struggling with the better competition, he absolutely took off with the bat. After not homering in his first 12 AA games, Norby hit two homers in game one of a double header on July 14th, starting one amazing heater that saw him hit 21 home runs while slashing .310/.393/.629/1.022 over his next 285 PAs in 61 games between AA and AAA. Norby has power to all fields allowing him to put up an impressive .274 ISO with a 26.4% Line drive rate at AA, and a .359 ISO and 21.2% LD rate in AAA. His strikeout % dropped and his FB rate improved as he moved up the chain this season. He doesn’t have a noticeable platoon difference and actually hit RHB slightly better than lefties last year.

Defensively, Norby is not going to provide much value at second base. While he showed improvements in limiting his throwing errors, he still struggles to get his feet under him well and is inconsistent. His range is suspect and he turns the double play a bit slow. He just never looks real smooth out there, but if a team is willing to put up with the below average defense, the bat should play well for the position. He did play 11 games in left field including 8 starts.

What we don’t know: Did he just totally blossom as the weather heated up or was he just on a crazy heater? While he was expected to have pop, we’re not sure anyone saw almost 30 home run power. Where is his future defensively on the diamond?

What we think: The Orioles could give him some spring training PAs in 2023, but he’ll most likely head back to AAA where if he hits like he did from mid-summer on, he will not be down in the minors for too long. Considering he runs pretty well and his arm could play up in the outfield, a move to left field might be worth giving a shot. If he could become an adequate corner outfielder, it could add to his value since most scouts seem to think he needs to move from 2B to maximize his value.

https://orioleshangout.com/orioles-2022-9-prospect-connor-norby-2b/

2022 Highlights

[Frobby]

The write-up about his defense is disappointing.   I knew Norby wasn’t Bobby Grich (or Joey Ortiz) out there, but it really sounds like he’s Dan Uggla.  That really limits his value.   

One thing worth mentioning about Norby’s slow start is that he was hit in the face with a pitch on May 10 and missed 18 days.   He had an .825 OPS in 24 games before he got hurt, then .634 in 24 games when he returned.   It’s not too surprising that he struggled a bit after getting hit.

Question for Tony - how does Norby compare at 2B with Vavra?   If one had to play it, who would you choose defensively?
 

[Sports Guy]

Very surprised to see Norby over Basallo.

[Just Regular]

FV 50 hit, 60 power kind of a fun baseball development story for a college .400 hitter.

Orioles are like, Connor, you gotta loft the ball.     I'm gonna guess Melewski won't run a feature how many of Norby's 2022 HR would have been HR in 2022 Camden Yards, but I know OMAR knows.

[LookinUp]

I feel like this guy is going to be a professional hitter for a long time. I get that defense limits his value, but he'll be a guy that teams want in the lineup.

Will that be with the O's? No idea. Could see him moving to LF for sure. The Astros had Alvarez playing out there, so that's evidence that you don't need gold glovers everywhere if you have good bats. 

I was curious about his potential for 1B. He's only 5'10", so 1B doesn't seem ideal.

[MCO'sFan]

I can remember many years when a guy like Norby would be our #1 prospect. Wow how times have changed. Seeing the current quality and depth of the O's system really shines a light on just how bad the O's system has been historically. 

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

The write-up about his defense is disappointing.   I knew Norby wasn’t Bobby Grich (or Joey Ortiz) out there, but it really sounds like he’s Dan Uggla.  That really limits his value.   

One thing worth mentioning about Norby’s slow start is that he was hit in the face with a pitch on May 10 and missed 18 days.   He had an .825 OPS in 24 games before he got hurt, then .634 in 24 games when he returned.   It’s not too surprising that he struggled a bit after getting hit.

Question for Tony - how does Norby compare at 2B with Vavra?   If one had to play it, who would you choose defensively?
 

Good question. Norby would get the nod for me due to his arm strength being better, but accuracy can be an issue at times for Norby more than Vavra. Neither throw well on the move. Neither are good defenders at 2B, but Norby's power potential could make teams live with the below average defense. I mean, it's not kill a team defense, just below major league average defense.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Very surprised to see Norby over Basallo.

You don't know that yet.  

Maybe there's a big surprise.... or maybe not.. 

[LookinUp]

This 10-20 list will resemble past year's 2-10 list. It's incredible.

[btdart20]

With the banned shift (and how many GMs/talking heads/prognosticators are saying it will increase the need for athletic 2Bs), Norby's value is elsewhere.

To keep chirping on it, we don't have a 1B prospect in the pipeline.  Norby's IF experience and bat could play there even if he's non-typically sized (but it's not like he's Altuve challenged).  I'd like to see him get some practice and game experience in there (same for a few other prospects as well).  

If we're keeping our best up-the-middle IFers (and even corner OFers) who have a bat, Norby is likely tradeable.  His glove is clearly behind Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg, and Ortiz.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

With the banned shift (and how many GMs/talking heads/prognosticators are saying it will increase the need for athletic 2Bs), Norby's value is elsewhere.

To keep chirping on it, we don't have a 1B prospect in the pipeline.  Norby's IF experience and bat could play there even if he's non-typically sized (but it's not like he's Altuve challenged).  I'd like to see him get some practice and game experience in there (same for a few other prospects as well).  

If we're keeping our best up-the-middle IFers (and even corner OFers) who have a bat, Norby is likely tradeable.  His glove is clearly behind Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg, and Ortiz.

I was told Norby's 5-10 listing was "generous". He's too short for 1B. He's either going to improve enough to play 2B or move out to corner outfield. 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I was told Norby's 5-10 listing was "generous". He's too short for 1B. He's either going to improve enough to play 2B or move out to corner outfield. 

Your take reminds me a little bit of Steve Pearce. Pearce was listed 5-11. Good enough bat to DH, but athletic enough to play some 1B, OF, and even 2B in a pinch. Norby could be a similar DH-Utility guy and get 500 AB's. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I was told Norby's 5-10 listing was "generous". He's too short for 1B. He's either going to improve enough to play 2B or move out to corner outfield. 

This is why I thought Basallo would be the pick.  I do not see how you have Basallo in the top 10 now and it surprises me that you would take Norby over him if you had to choose between the 2.

To me, Norby should be on the trading block.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is why I thought Basallo would be the pick.  I do not see how you have Basallo in the top 10 now and it surprises me that you would take Norby over him if you had to choose between the 2.

To me, Norby should be on the trading block.  

We’ve also heard noises that Basallo may need to move off catcher.  If so, that drops his value significantly, and we have to project his bat up five levels of play.   I’m not surprised he’s outside the top 10, though he certainly could reach that status this year.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We’ve also heard noises that Basallo may need to move off catcher.  If so, that drops his value significantly, and we have to project his bat up five levels of play.   I’m not surprised he’s outside the top 10, though he certainly could reach that status this year.  

True but what he did at a young age is impressive and even if he has to go to the OF or 1st, it seems like his bat has a chance to profile there.

If I had to choose one, I am taking him.