2022 #8 prospect Colton Cowser - OF

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles 1st round pick (#5 overall) in the 2021 draft comes in as the #8 overall prospect after being a line drive machine.

Colton Cowser
Pos: Outfielder
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22
2021 Level: A+/AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/55
Game Power: 45/50
Raw Power: 50/55
Run: 60/55
Defense: 50/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting corner outfielder
Ceiling: Starting center fielder

Stats

What we know: Drafted by the Orioles with the 5th overall pick in the 2021 draft, he signed for an underslot ($4.9 million vs $6,180,700) bonus. It’s hard to think 2022 was anything but a success after starting the year in High-A and ending it in AAA. Saying that, it was a bit of a roller-coaster for him as he started off the year ice cold with Aberdeen striking out an alarming rate. He was however getting deep into counts and was drawing walks, but he was very passive at the plate. Through his first 29 games (132 PAs) at Aberdeen he slashed just .219/.371/.352/.724 with two home runs and 44 K’s, but he did walk 24 times to keep his OBP up. He then settle in and put up .289/.399/.463/.861 line in his next 143 PAs (33 games) before getting a promotion to Bowie (AA). Overall he put up a solid 23.8% LD rate and a surprisingly low 8.8% swinging strike rate but was hitting too many ground balls (51% GB rate).

Promoted to Bowie on June 28th, Cowser found Double-A pitching to his liking and for the first time in his professional career, his power potential start to show up. He crushed Eastern League pitching for .341/.469/.568/1.037 line, and amazing 35.5% LD rate, .452 wOBA, 184 wRC+, 10 HR and 10 doubles in 224 PAs. However, he did that with an unsustainable .446 BABIP and a high 25.4 % K rate though he paired that with a vert good 16.1 % walk rate and an amazing 35.5% LD %.

That got him promoted to AAA on August 30th where he found some struggles against the more mature pitchers initially. In his first AAA games he slashed .079/.255/.158/.413 with 22 Ks and 4 BBs in 47 PAs. Then, like in each other levels, he made some adjustments slashing .299/.390/.582/.972 with 16 Ks and 8 BBs over his next 77 PAs to end the season.

While his numbers were very good overall, there are some concerns over the swing and miss, particularly against some high velocity fastballs. At times it appears he cheats to get to fastballs leaving him susceptible to offspeed pitches. AAA pitchers were busting him up and in and he struggled at times times to get his bat on plain, so there is some concerns by some scouts that could be a problem at the major league level. He also struggled once again against left-handed pitching slashing just .194/.329/.287/.616 in 158 PAs with just two home runs and 53 Ks across all three levels. His hitting did improve against them as he moved up, especially drawing more walks, but he does not hit for power and really struggles against left-handed breaking pitches.

Defensively Cowser runs well on the go, but at times doesn’t get good reads. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds already (maybe more weight), it’s doubtful he will be able to play anything more than a merely adequate centerfield suggesting a move to corner outfield would be best. With Camden Yards’ spacious left field, left field might be a better fit even though he has enough arm to play RF.

What we don’t know: Cowser can hit, but there are some questions at times about his ability hit good fastballs. Can he close up that hole? There are also concerns about his ability hit left-handed pitching which could limit him to a platoon role if he can’t improve. Can he improve enough to be a full-time everyday regular? Defensively, while he can play centerfielder effectively now, how will getting older and gaining weight affect is already fringy?

What we think: Cowser is an interesting guy because at times he looks like one of the best hitters in the system and at times you wonder why he swings through so many hittable pitches. It seemed as though Cowser was working on impacting the baseball while offsetting that with making contact. The good news is that at every level he started slow, but made adjustments that made him one of the team’s best hitters. The platoon difference is a bit concerning, but there were some signs of improvement by the end of the year. Next year Cowser should get a look at the big league camp, but will most likely start the year back in AAA. With some good numbers and opportunity, Cowser could be patrolling the outfield in Camden Yards by no later than mid-season next year.

https://orioleshangout.com/2022-8-prospect-colton-cowser-of/

2022 AA Highlights

[Spy Fox]

Wow. You certainly stumped us with the recent poll given that the three options with Cowser were the lowest vote getters! 

A somewhat sobering Cowser take, but mainly I take it as an amazing sign of the times that someone this good could be #8 in any ranking. 

"Most Likely Future Role: Starting corner outfielder." At #8! 

[LookinUp]

Agree. Stunningly good profile for an 8th ranked prospect in the system.

[RZNJ]

Yeah. You dropped him but I still love the write up.  

[Sports Guy]

Been saying that I thought Tony was going to have to him lower than people thought but I thought he would be 6.  
 

[Sports Guy]

A lot lower than Jordan Lawlar would be.

[Frobby]

I wouldn’t have put Cowser this low, but reading the write-up, you can see why he’s at 8.  There’s definitely a few questions Cowser needs to answer.  I have this gut feeling that he’s going to answer them and then we’ll be wondering how he was ranked this low.  But, that’s the optimist in me talking.  

The issue of being vulnerable to LHP is a big one.  
 

[Sports Guy]

You do wonder if he’s a guy that you take advantage of his prospect status and look to trade him this offseason.

How worried are you about the lefty/lefty thing? Will he adjust to those fastballs?

If you have real concerns but other teams are valuing him as a top 50ish guy and you can get that level of return for him and get back established, cost controlled MLers in a deal revolving around him, I think its something you consider.

[Aristotelian]

I missed badly on this one. I thought Cowser would hold his #4 spot as his numbers didn't suggest a reason to drop him.

I thought Hall was at risk of falling to the bottom of the top 10, and this suggests Westburg is moving up, so this suggests good news for those two. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

Obviously I like Cowser overall, but his left on left numbers and his overall swing and miss are some concerns and that's what has dropped him behind some others. The contact issues to get to the power concerns me a bit a as well as the fact that he swung through a lot of fastballs in fastball counts. One scout told me, "He had no shot against left-handed breaking balls." 

I'm also not convinced he's a center fielder though I do think he can play at there at times and not kill a team.

At the end of the day, I think he's a regular and defensively he would fit very nicely in left field in Camden Yards, but I do wonder whether he'll need to platoon with a McKenna type in LF to maximize value.

[Three Run Homer]

I see Brandon Nimmo as Cowser's ceiling--elite leadoff hitter with some power, good corner outfielder.   Maybe we can package Cowser and a lesser prospect to Florida for Lopez, and then sign Brandon Nimmo?  

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t have put Cowser this low, but reading the write-up, you can see why he’s at 8.  There’s definitely a few questions Cowser needs to answer.  I have this gut feeling that he’s going to answer them and then we’ll be wondering how he was ranked this low.  But, that’s the optimist in me talking.  

The issue of being vulnerable to LHP is a big one.  
 

I agree. The Lefty splits need work but I think that could improve with reputations and coaching. It’s hard to play CF. Mullins had questions about his arm. Hays was supposed to be a CF.

This would’ve been crazy to think two years ago, but maybe Jackson Holliday is our future CF. In the Trea Turner mold of moving around based on team need. 

[btdart20]

K% concern is legit.  BB% ability is also legit.  In SSS AAA (his worst level), he ran into the trifecta of terrible:  1) his K% spiked over 30%, 2) BB% dropped to 10.5% (still plus), and 3) his Babip tanked to .290.  AND YET he still posted a .339 OBP and a .429 SLG (both the lowest/among the lowest of any level/year).  

there are some concerns over the swing and miss, particularly against some high velocity fastballs. At times it appears he cheats to get to fastballs leaving him susceptible to offspeed pitches.

I wish there was more data on the FB concerns.  That's a yellow flag for me if it's legit.  If he can't hit the velo, then it truly is a cheating/guessing game.

Is "cheating" the same thing as "approach" (guessing a pitch/zone and not being able to react otherwise)?  Or something different?  If it's the same thing, that is what is being taught.  Pick a pitch/zone in less than 2 strikes, make a decision to swing/take, and if swinging put your best swing on it to maximize EV (and in theory Babip/OPS).

The crazy part of his numbers is the high Babip (AAA notwithstanding).  .588 (CPX), .418 (A), .374 (A+), .446 (AA), .290 (AAA).  That likely has something to do with solid contact when making contact (being a LHH with a little speed helps too).  Hard to say what normal is for Cowser at this point.  

His OBP tracks his Babip fairly well.  .560 (CPX), .476 (A), .385 (A+), .469 (AA), .339 (AAA).  Which makes me thing he'll be a plus OBP guy.

His BB% tracks very favorably to Gunnar and Adley through the minors.

Cowser - 12% (CPX), 17.7% (A), 16.2% (A+), 16.1% (AA), 10.5% (AAA)

Adley - 12.5% (R), 13% (A-), 12.8% (A), 15.4% (AA), 13% (AAA) - I tossed out 2022 because...

Gunnar - 9.1% (R), 8.9% (A), 13.8% (A+), 19.1% (AA), 12.1% (AAA)

 

[RZNJ]

 

[Aristotelian]

On 11/15/2022 at 1:40 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree. The Lefty splits need work but I think that could improve with reputations and coaching. It’s hard to play CF. Mullins had questions about his arm. Hays was supposed to be a CF.

This would’ve been crazy to think two years ago, but maybe Jackson Holliday is our future CF. In the Trea Turner mold of moving around based on team need. 

Interesting thought.