“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[Orioles0615]

39 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Not sure about the rest of the league but the last few the O's gave out have not worked out that way.

Wei-Yin Chen's best 2 seasons were his 3rd and 4th season
Ubaldo's best was his 2nd season
Cobb's best season over his contract was his 4th season (with the Angels). Statistically his 3rd year was his best in Baltimore but it was only over 52.1 innings. His first was the only time he threw a full season and even that was only 152.1.

Small sample obviously but it doesn't ring true in terms of long term free agent pitching deals given out by the O's.


 

Yea I feel like this is not good thinking. what about next year when Jack Flaherty or Giloito or even *gasp* Ohtani are free agents. All will be under 30 and will have more than "1" good year left. 

Just wait until next offseason when we finish around .500 or under and we go through the same excuses. And this will be right before this magical 2024 people keep going on about

[geschinger]

45 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Not sure about the rest of the league but the last few the O's gave out have not worked out that way.

Wei-Yin Chen's best 2 seasons were his 3rd and 4th season
Ubaldo's best was his 2nd season
Cobb's best season over his contract was his 4th season (with the Angels). Statistically his 3rd year was his best in Baltimore but it was only over 52.1 innings. His first was the only time he threw a full season and even that was only 152.1.

Small sample obviously but it doesn't ring true in terms of long term free agent pitching deals given out by the O's.

I don't know what the claim was based on but what I am relatively certain of is that Sig's department has done analysis and modeling and decisions will ultimately be data-driven.  Doesn't necessaarily mean they will be right but there will almost certainly be data / analysis to backup whatever those decisions are made.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I don't know what the claim was based on but what I am relatively certain of is that Sig's department has done analysis and modeling and decisions will ultimately be data-driven.  Doesn't necessaarily mean they will be right but there will almost certainly be data / analysis to backup whatever those decisions are made.

Or it was pure spin.

It certainly sounds good.

Only someone looking for things to take exception to would hone in on it.

[tabletop]

According to the free agent tracker on MLBTradeRumors the below are the pitchers that signed as free agents for 3+ years from 2016-2019. Still a small sample size but looking at the below you'll see that only 3 out of 11 had their first year of their new contract as their best year during the contract. The list seems small and I'm surprised there weren't more 3+ year deals so if I missed any let me know. Ivan Nova's stats were similar in his first 2 years so really only 2 had a big drop off after their first year (Arrieta and Corbin).

2016-2017
Ivan Nova - 3 years Pittsburgh, 1st year best year but 1st and 2nd year were close
Rich Hill - 3 years Dodgers, 3rd year best year statistically but only 58.2 innings, was good all 3 years

2017-18
Yu Darvish - 6 years Cubs, 1st year was his worst year
Alex Cobb - 4 years Orioles, 4th year was his best year
Tyler Chatwood - 3 years Cubs, 2nd year was his best year
Mike Minor - 3 years Rangers, 2nd year was his best year
Jake Arrieta - 3 years Phillies, 1st year was his best year

2018-19
Patrick Corbin - 6 years Nationals, 1st year was his best year
Nathan Eovaldi - 4 years Red Sox, 1st year was his worst year
Yusei Kikuchi - 4 years Mariners, 3rd year was his best year
Lance Lynn - 3 years Rangers, 3rd year was his best year

[Roll Tide]

51 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Net zero gain ….LMAO! 
 

Switching those 2 for 2 …..there is a net of 115 points of OBP and 4.2 WAR

 

Oh the silence 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Roll Tide

[tabletop]

I don't know how you would classify the class whose first year was the shortened 2020 season but here goes:
2019-20
Gerrit Cole - 9 years Yankees, 1st year best
Stephen Strasburg - 7 years Nationals, 7 starts since contract so can't really say
Madison Bumgarner - 5 years Diamondbacks, 1st year was worst year so far
Zack Wheeler - 5 years Phillies, basically the same all 3 years but technically first year was best year
Hyun-Jin Ryu - 4 years Blue Jays, 1st year best year
Kyle Gibson - 3 years Rangers, 2nd year best year
Josh Lindblom - 3 years Brewers, didn't start after first year had a 5.16era in first year though
Dallas Keuchel - 3 years White Sox, 1st year best year

When you look at this class you're talking about 4 out of 8 had their first year as their best year. It's hard to really say for sure though since none of them made more than 10-12 starts.

[Orioles0615]

Nimmo just got 8/162 from the Mets. Yea when the time comes we aren't keeping Mullins. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Nimmo just got 8/162 from the Mets. Yea when the time comes we aren't keeping Mullins. 

That may have made his value increase.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Net zero gain ….LMAO! 
 

Switching those 2 for 2 …..there is a net of 115 points of OBP and 4.2 WAR

Where did I say net zero gain as if the team wouldn’t be better?  Get a grip.  I said that’s not really adding two bats.  You’re also subtracting two. 

[tabletop]

3 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Nimmo just got 8/162 from the Mets. Yea when the time comes we aren't keeping Mullins. 

That seems pretty crazy for a guy who has played three full seasons in his career (and one was 2020).

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where did I say net zero gain as if the team wouldn’t be better?  Get a grip.  I said that’s not really adding two bats.  You’re also subtracting two. 

You have to move lesser players to create room. I’ve been saying since the season ended that we need to upgrade from the low OBP guys. And encourage guys like Mullins, Santander, and Urias (if he’s still here)to get closer to past seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where did I say net zero gain as if the team wouldn’t be better?  Get a grip.  I said that’s not really adding two bats.  You’re also subtracting two. 

You kinda have to right?

Only so many spots on the roster.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You kinda have to right?

Only so many spots on the roster.

Ha. Technically, yes.  Of course, sometimes players don’t come back from the previous year and you have openings.  Seems like we have 8 guys for 9 spots right now.   You could certainly add Benintendi and still keep Santander.  One example.

[Moose Milligan]

15 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

How many rotation pieces are still remaining on the market that you'd be happy with the Orioles signing?  

Yeah, it's only December 8th but I have a feeling that there aren't many names left that you all would want pitching for the team next year.  

I ASKED A QUESTION

[clapdiddy]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I ASKED A QUESTION

I'll answer.

Bassitt

Eovaldi

On a one-year deal:

Cueto

Syndergaard (incentive-laden deal only)

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by clapdiddy