Some overly simplistic OBP math

[Frobby]

Take Roughned Odor’s 472 PA at .275 OBP and give them to Gunnar Henderson (.348).

Take Tyler Nevin’s 184 PA at .299 OBP and give them to Terrin Vavra (.340).

Take 90 of Robinson Chirinos’ 220 PA at .265 OBP and give them to Adley Rutschman (.362).   Assume a new backup C will be just as inept as Chirinos, but won’t be starting for the first 1/4 of the season like Chirinos was.

Those three relatively simple moves add about 8 points to the team OBP, moving them from slightly below average to slightly above average.   Anything we do from there is gravy.   Of course, you do have to replace Trey Mancini’s 401 PA at .347 OBP.   
 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Frobby

[Just Regular]

Trey Mancini might not be that expensive for a 400 PA role, if he could reconcile himself to it.

In a way I could see him as a strong option to model embracing that for the good of the team as Mullins, Hays, Urias, Mateo, etc. know him well and they might have to do it too.

Carlos Santana getting 6.5 for me is kind of the beginning of the offseason market for not bad Hit First players.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Take Roughned Odor’s 472 PA at .275 OBP and give them to Gunnar Henderson (.348).

Take Tyler Nevin’s 184 PA at .299 OBP and give them to Terrin Vavra (.340).

Take 90 of Robinson Chirinos’ 220 PA at .265 OBP and give them to Adley Rutschman (.362).   Assume a new backup C will be just as inept as Chirinos, but won’t be starting for the first 1/4 of the season like Chirinos was.

Those three relatively simple moves add about 8 points to the team OBP, moving them from slightly below average to slightly above average.   Anything we do from there is gravy.   Of course, you do have to replace Trey Mancini’s 401 PA at .347 OBP.   
 

That’s what I’ve been saying! I think they could overhaul the lineup with that approach and the improvement would be drastic. Now do Correa vs Mateo, Benintendi vs Hays, Abreu vs Mountcastle. I’m not saying we can get all 3 or will. But, removing the 5-6 poor OBP guys from the roster would be huge.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Trey Mancini might not be that expensive for a 400 PA role, if he could reconcile himself to it.

In a way I could see him as a strong option to model embracing that for the good of the team as Mullins, Hays, Urias, Mateo, etc. know him well and they might have to do it too.

Carlos Santana getting 6.5 for me is kind of the beginning of the offseason market for not bad Hit First players.

Trey was poor in Houston. I’m not sure I want him back. Plus I’m betting he’s after a starters role that he’d probably get on a bad team.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Trey was poor in Houston. I’m not sure I want him back. Plus I’m betting he’s after a starters role that he’d probably get on a bad team.

I’m not sure I’d want him back, but it’s got nothing to do with how he did in Houston.  

[MijiT88]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

That’s what I’ve been saying! I think they could overhaul the lineup with that approach and the improvement would be drastic. Now do Correa vs Mateo, Benintendi vs Hays, Abreu vs Mountcastle. I’m not saying we can get all 3 or will. But, removing the 5-6 poor OBP guys from the roster would be huge.

I would much rather see our young guys take AB than us signing those 3, I am okay with Abreu but hard pass on the other two with what we have in the minors now and for the future. I know there are rumblings of correa out there but it would be very foolish for our long term vision to go after him, imo

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, MijiT88 said:

I would much rather see our young guys take AB than us signing those 3, I am okay with Abreu but hard pass on the other two with what we have in the minors now and for the future. I know there are rumblings of correa out there but it would be very foolish for our long term vision to go after him, imo

But, we are now in win mode. Elias is saying they are going to add 2 hitters. If he’s serious about competing he need to fix the abundance of low OBP guys. I mentioned in the other thread. Mullins, Henderson, and Rutschman are your keepers. You upgrade over anybody else if you can. Benintendi would replace Hays. Correa replaces Mateo. Then you still have 2 infield slots, 1 OF, and a DH type. If Westburg is ready fine put him at 2B. You still can bring up an OF as Stowers needs to prove he’s not a .300 OBP guys. 

[Orioles0615]

[MijiT88]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

But, we are now in win mode. Elias is saying they are going to add 2 hitters. If he’s serious about competing he need to fix the abundance of low OBP guys. I mentioned in the other thread. Mullins, Henderson, and Rutschman are your keepers. You upgrade over anybody else if you can. Benintendi would replace Hays. Correa replaces Mateo. Then you still have 2 infield slots, 1 OF, and a DH type. If Westburg is ready fine put him at 2B. You still can bring up an OF as Stowers needs to prove he’s not a .300 OBP guys. 

Maybe if our window was closing in the next couple years I would say this makes sense. But we are just starting and blocking the area where you have a ton of talent in the pipeline doesn't make sense. Mateo with a ++ glove is fine if we have some OBP at other positions, which is why I think replacing RMC makes sense. A combo of Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg/Urias, RMC/Abreu around the infield sounds just great to me. We also didnt draft Holliday 1-1 to then sign Correa to block him. OF can be upgraded but I think Cowser has shown that he is going to be a real player at some point this year so that's another plus. Maybe we add an outfield bat but I will hold strong on the fact that our young guys may very well outperform most FA that is avail this year.

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, MijiT88 said:

Maybe if our window was closing in the next couple years I would say this makes sense. But we are just starting and blocking the area where you have a ton of talent in the pipeline doesn't make sense. Mateo with a ++ glove is fine if we have some OBP at other positions, which is why I think replacing RMC makes sense. A combo of Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg/Urias, RMC/Abreu around the infield sounds just great to me. We also didnt draft Holliday 1-1 to then sign Correa to block him. OF can be upgraded but I think Cowser has shown that he is going to be a real player at some point this year so that's another plus. Maybe we add an outfield bat but I will hold strong on the fact that our young guys may very well outperform most FA that is avail this year.

You guys that are worrying about blocking guys crack me up. If you aren’t adding in free agency you aren’t trying to win now. Besides the Os don’t have 7 allstar ballplayers coming up in the next 2 or 3 year.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You guys that are worrying about blocking guys crack me up. If you aren’t adding in free agency you aren’t trying to win now. Besides the Os don’t have 7 allstar ballplayers coming up in the next 2 or 3 year.

Elias is going to sign FA to shore up weak areas.  He's also got prospects in mind to take over key positions over the next two years.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You guys that are worrying about blocking guys crack me up. If you aren’t adding in free agency you aren’t trying to win now. Besides the Os don’t have 7 allstar ballplayers coming up in the next 2 or 3 year.

So, adding guys past their primes to contracts they likely won’t live up to is “trying to win” in your eyes?

[MarCakes21]

19 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

That’s what I’ve been saying! I think they could overhaul the lineup with that approach and the improvement would be drastic. Now do Correa vs Mateo, Benintendi vs Hays, Abreu vs Mountcastle. I’m not saying we can get all 3 or will. But, removing the 5-6 poor OBP guys from the roster would be huge.

Spend your money elsewhere. Yes those guys can improve the team as all FAs likely will, but what do you do with hays and mounty. They likely don’t bring back much in a trade. And they might bring back 1war gain for a 10+ mil cost. That’s not good math.

[Roll Tide]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, adding guys past their primes to contracts they likely won’t live up to is “trying to win” in your eyes?

Not talking about 30 something’s like you with Verlander. 28 year olds are pretty safe to continue performing at a high level for several years. No long free agent contract is ever worth it the final few. It comes with the territory. I don’t know whether he will go big or not. So we will have to see! Plus having a surplus to deal will also help fill other holes. I’m simply saying that worrying about blocking Holiday at this point is pointless. 

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Spend your money elsewhere. Yes those guys can improve the team as all FAs likely will, but what do you do with hays and mounty. They likely don’t bring back much in a trade. And they might bring back 1war gain for a 10+ mil cost. That’s not good math.

Who cares! You move them along one way or another. .300 OBP players aren’t that valuable on you team or off it,