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Players who dropped out of the 2022 top 30


Frobby
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42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I have no problem with the players who didn’t make the top 30.  Most had poor seasons.  I would say that there are some interesting players on there who wouldn’t surprise me much if they were back inside the top 30 at this time next year.

Like I said, the one I question most is Pinto.  And I’m not outraged that he’s not on there.  His walk rate went from 2.5 in the FCL to 4.5 at Delmarva, and he seems to be profiling more as a reliever now.  Perhaps @Tony-OHwill elaborate.

 

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, the one I question most is Pinto.  And I’m not outraged that he’s not on there.  His walk rate went from 2.5 in the FCL to 4.5 at Delmarva, and he seems to be profiling more as a reliever now.  Perhaps @Tony-OHwill elaborate.

 

Right. Again, except for Servideo, Young, Lowther, Deson, and Maikol Hernandez, I think Rhodes, Willems, William's, Rangel (if healthy), Pinto,  and Trimble are all decent bounceback candidates for 2023.  I guess Deson and Maikol Hernandez are more longshots.  Young apparently has health issues and Servideo has never been able to stay on the field.

I'm looking forward to Willems and Deson repeating Delmarva.   Maikol Hernandez likely repeats FCL.  If you repeat a league and still can't hit that will be a fork for all three probably. 

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Right. Again, except for Servideo, Young, Lowther, Deson, and Maikol Hernandez, I think Rhodes, Willems, William's, Rangel (if healthy), Pinto,  and Trimble are all decent bounceback candidates for 2023.  I guess Deson and Maikol Hernandez are more longshots.  Young apparently has health issues and Servideo has never been able to stay on the field.

I'm looking forward to Willems and Deson repeating Delmarva.   Maikol Hernandez likely repeats FCL.  If you repeat a league and still can't hit that will be a fork for all three probably. 

Like you, I noted that Darell Hernaiz had very good things to say about Deson.  I remember that the Delmarva broadcaster also reported in a mid-season interview that scouts really liked Deson too.  So I’ve got some remote hope that there’s some potential for a breakout with him despite his very poor numbers.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s players who haven’t lost rookie status but dropped out of Tony’s top 30 (last year’s ranking shown):

13. Jean Pinto: pitched to a 3.83 ERA in Aberdeen at age 21, striking out 10.1 per 9 but walking 4.5.

14.  Maikol Hernandez: posted a .483 OPS in the FCL at age 18.

15. Zac Lowther: Threw to a 10.31 ERA in Norfolk in 43.2 IP.  He missed about six weeks from mid-June through all of July. (I’m not 100% sure he has rookie status, but I believe he does. BB-ref shows him with 44 days of service.)

21. Johnny Rhodes: Injured part of the year, he posted an .817 OPS at Aberdeen in 58 games but only .555 at Bowie in 25 games, at age 21.

23. Brandon Young: pitched very well for three games at Bowie (2.03 ERA), but had TJ surgery (I believe) and missed most of the year.

24. Creed Willems: posted a .586 OPS at Delmarva in 68 games at age 19, and allowed 70 stolen bases in 47 games caught, throwing out 20 (22% CS).   He did hit considerably better after missing 2+ weeks in July, posting an .824 OPS in his final 25 games spanning July 24 - Sept. 7.

25. Mishael Deson: posted a .596 OPS at Delmarva at age 19 in 76 games.  He missed three weeks in July and was shut down in mid-August.

26. Reed Trimble: injured to start the season, he returned to Delmarva in July and had a .747 OPS in 31 games, followed by .708 in 16 AFL games, at age 22.

27. Donta’ Williams: posted a .690 OPS in 86 games at Aberdeen and had a 3 game cup of coffee at Bowie, at age 23.  Missed 3+ weeks in June and early July.

28. Anthony Servideo: his season was almost a complete washout, as he played only 15 games in the FCL (.494 OPS) and 9 games for Delmarva (.382), at age 23.

30. Raul Rangel: started the year with Delmarva, but was hurt after three starts.  Made one start in June but was shut down again.  Finally was able to throw in four FCL games in August.  In all, he was able to throw only 13 innings and was very wild, walking 14 while striking out 18, all at age 19.

Of the players who dropped off the list, the one I’d question most is Pinto.  He had a pretty respectable season and was young for his level at Aberdeen.  I did notice that the O’s generally kept his starts to only 4 innings, so it seems he’s profiling as a reliever, which hurts his status a bit.

As you can see, injuries played a big role in derailing a lot of these players’ seasons.   Hopefully with better health next year, some of them can bounce back.

 

Pinto was real close to being at the end of the list along with Rhodes and Armbruester. Pinto's size, his mediocre fastball (91-93), and the fact a lot of  his swing and miss were on chases on the slider or split change makes me want to see him prove it against Double-A pitching. 

I was too aggressive with his ranking last year for sure. 

Rhodes almost made it, but I just don't see the carrying tool that will allow him to be a starter. He's similar to Haskin and I just prefer Haskin a bit more because he's started to get to his game power a bit while Rhodes has never really shown game power. Rhodes does have better plate discipline and is a good defender on the corners with better speed than Haskin, but Haskin has performed ok at a higher level so he gets the nod for me. Saying that, they are very similar profile guys.

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I have no problem with the players who didn’t make the top 30.  Most had poor seasons.  I would say that there are some interesting players on there who wouldn’t surprise me much if they were back inside the top 30 at this time next year.

Lowther is the only guy that I would say has little chance to rebound back onto the list unless he shows back up a new pitcher next spring. 

All of the guys that dropped off are still interesting and worth following, but they have things they need to improve on and prove next year.

I'll probably end up going out to 75 again so you'll see some of these guys in that 31-50 range.

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The stats would strongly indicate otherwise, but it seems like they still like Maikol Hernandez. I wonder if that's just because of the obvious - his bonus - and they don't want to give up on him or if there's something they're seeing in BP or whatever that isn't translating yet.

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On 11/29/2022 at 12:36 PM, LookinUp said:

The stats would strongly indicate otherwise, but it seems like they still like Maikol Hernandez. I wonder if that's just because of the obvious - his bonus - and they don't want to give up on him or if there's something they're seeing in BP or whatever that isn't translating yet.

He reportedly has good tools, but his hit tool, which is the one tool they really don't know about until he gets into professional competition, is pretty terrible. Very high swinginstrike%, and two years now of terrible offensive output. 

With the money invested he will probably still get some playing time next year, but with Amparo and Arias coming up, I would not be surprised if he's a throw in into a trade this winter.

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Gotta say, it’s pretty cool to see us churn through some of these guys.  Just shows the crème is rising to the top.  Quite a few guys on that list that came aboard with some acclaim and high hopes.  Good news is even though they are out of top 30, most of them are still pretty darn interesting.  

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On 11/29/2022 at 9:53 AM, Frobby said:

Here’s players who haven’t lost rookie status but dropped out of Tony’s top 30 (last year’s ranking shown):

13. Jean Pinto: pitched to a 3.83 ERA in Aberdeen at age 21, striking out 10.1 per 9 but walking 4.5.

14.  Maikol Hernandez: posted a .483 OPS in the FCL at age 18.

15. Zac Lowther: Threw to a 10.31 ERA in Norfolk in 43.2 IP.  He missed about six weeks from mid-June through all of July. (I’m not 100% sure he has rookie status, but I believe he does. BB-ref shows him with 44 days of service.)

21. Johnny Rhodes: Injured part of the year, he posted an .817 OPS at Aberdeen in 58 games but only .555 at Bowie in 25 games, at age 21.

23. Brandon Young: pitched very well for three games at Bowie (2.03 ERA), but had TJ surgery (I believe) and missed most of the year.

24. Creed Willems: posted a .586 OPS at Delmarva in 68 games at age 19, and allowed 70 stolen bases in 47 games caught, throwing out 20 (22% CS).   He did hit considerably better after missing 2+ weeks in July, posting an .824 OPS in his final 25 games spanning July 24 - Sept. 7.

25. Mishael Deson: posted a .596 OPS at Delmarva at age 19 in 76 games.  He missed three weeks in July and was shut down in mid-August.

26. Reed Trimble: injured to start the season, he returned to Delmarva in July and had a .747 OPS in 31 games, followed by .708 in 16 AFL games, at age 22.

27. Donta’ Williams: posted a .690 OPS in 86 games at Aberdeen and had a 3 game cup of coffee at Bowie, at age 23.  Missed 3+ weeks in June and early July.

28. Anthony Servideo: his season was almost a complete washout, as he played only 15 games in the FCL (.494 OPS) and 9 games for Delmarva (.382), at age 23.

30. Raul Rangel: started the year with Delmarva, but was hurt after three starts.  Made one start in June but was shut down again.  Finally was able to throw in four FCL games in August.  In all, he was able to throw only 13 innings and was very wild, walking 14 while striking out 18, all at age 19.

Of the players who dropped off the list, the one I’d question most is Pinto.  He had a pretty respectable season and was young for his level at Aberdeen.  I did notice that the O’s generally kept his starts to only 4 innings, so it seems he’s profiling as a reliever, which hurts his status a bit.

As you can see, injuries played a big role in derailing a lot of these players’ seasons.   Hopefully with better health next year, some of them can bounce back.

 

To me, this is the epitome of what Frobby brings to the board.  I found this really useful, and this is the type of research that brings me back four times a day (three times more than the better half would prefer).  Appreciate what you do.  Especially now that you are retired! 

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