Orioles interested in Syndergaard?

[Just Regular]

It'll be interesting to watch the SB attempt rate next year.    The risk-reward also includes the X chance the Player injures himself any given attempt.

Jorge Mateo breaks a digit and misses two months...team run production probably goes up.    Mike Trout or Fernando Tatis...not as much.

TEX-CLE-BAL enjoyed some separation from the rest of the AL Clubs last year in Fangraphs baserunning runs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=18,d

[nvpacchi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not sure where this math came from.  The average number of runs scored with a runner on 1st and nobody out is 0.94.   The average with a runner and second and nobody out is 1.17.   So, the stolen base is worth 0.23 runs.   56 stolen bases = about 13 runs.  And you are right that the run value of a SB declines if there are one out (0.16) or two outs (0.12).   So, in reality it’s less than 13 runs.  And since those are already baked into his ERA, I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

This was an interesting point I started noodling on.  With the noise in ERA should we be worried that if its baked into his respectable 3.9 ERA from last season its also baked into his less than desirable xERA of 4.43?  That's a substantial gap that could easily swing the other way one season, especially for a pitcher that can no longer rely on the swing and miss like he once did.  We can't even look to FIP in this case to help average out all the xStats, because it wouldn't consider SBs.

I think hearing everyone on the board lessened my concern about it, but it still is a factor that should be considered in the new SB environment - especially when we're dishing out millions and multiple years on a contract.  The O's have a bunch of guys with low K-rates and good command already, but I imagine and hope Elias and Sig think there's something in Syndergaard's game that suggests he could return to something of what he was in Queens.  Otherwise you may as well roll with Wells or Voth on a minimum deal to get the same peripherals.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

 I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

I just wanted someone to run the numbers so we could see how small an impact the running game has. 

[jrobb21613]

With the way this market is shaping up and Syndergaard coming off a down year I think we sign him to one 1 yr  deal in the neighborhood of 15 million. 

[jamalshw]

7 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

With the way this market is shaping up and Syndergaard coming off a down year I think we sign him to one 1 yr  deal in the neighborhood of 15 million. 

My expectations have dropped so much that Syndergaard or Manaea seems like the high end of what we can expect. I hope that's not the case, but seems to be how this is going. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, jamalshw said:

My expectations have dropped so much that Syndergaard or Manaea seems like the high end of what we can expect. I hope that's not the case, but seems to be how this is going. 

I’d prefer the trade route to one of those two.  As far as free agents go it has to be Rodon, Bassitt, or Eovaldi.   

[jamalshw]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’d prefer the trade route to one of those two.  As far as free agents go it has to be Rodon, Bassitt, or Eovaldi.   

I agree...but I'm growing skeptical of it happening. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’d prefer the trade route to one of those two.  As far as free agents go it has to be Rodon, Bassitt, or Eovaldi.   

Someone is going to slip through the cracks imo.

A guy we assume will get 3 or 4 years will end up getting 1-3 years. Wonder if that is what Elias is waiting for?

[RZNJ]

Just now, jamalshw said:

I agree...but I'm growing skeptical of it happening. 

Yeah.  I don’t think it happens.   I forgot Senga.   

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Someone is going to slip through the cracks imo.

A guy we assume will get 3 or 4 years will end up getting 1-3 years. Wonder if that is what Elias is waiting for?

So far it’s been the opposite.   Supply and demand.  Seems like there are enough teams involved that only someone like Manaea falls through the cracks.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So far it’s been the opposite.   Supply and demand.  Seems like there are enough teams involved that only someone like Manaea falls through the cracks.

It’s usually the case that the early signings get the bigger deals.  The top FAs who wait things out are exceptions to this of course.

[oriolediehard]

Noah Syndergaard is now off the board. He signed 1 year 13mil + incentives with Dodgers.

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, oriolediehard said:

Noah Syndergaard is now off the board. He signed 1 year 13mil + incentives with Dodgers.

Hahaha 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Is Jordan Lyles still available? Will they sign any half decent pitcher before spring training? Team has improved, but the off-season inaction continues another year. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s
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[Bahama O's Fan]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Is Jordan Lyles still available? Will the sign any half decent pitcher before spring training? Team has improved, but the off-season inaction continues another year. 

I'd sign him