Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

While I have questioned how much of this is personal to Holt, it’s certainly the case that the Orioles’ pitching department believes they can get a good performance out of Gibson.  

“I think that we targeted Kyle. He was a priority for us,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said today in his suite at the Manchester Grand Hyatt.

“Our jobs as front office evaluators is to look at what we think is going to happen in the future, and not what somebody’s baseball card numbers were last season, and we saw a lot of things to us that project well into the future for Kyle. I think he’s going to have a really nice season for us and is a really good fit, and it puts us in a position of security with our rotation, our pitching staff, as we proceed through the rest of the offseason.”

* * *

“This is a guy who’s thrown (1,504) innings in his 10-year major league career, just took a trip to the World Series with the Phillies, tremendous reputation around the league as a leader, but also the type of linchpin that I think will benefit our young pitching staff quite a bit in the rotation,” Elias said.

“Projects to cover a lot of innings and a lot of starts for us and is a guy who keeps your team in ballgames. He’s got six pitches, really knows how to pitch and mix them. Plus changeup. He’s a guy that our pitching department thinks can help tap into a new gear and have a great season with us.”

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-still-in-hunt-for-starters-after-giving-gibson-10-million-contract

 

 

 

I’m glad they’re so high on him. Clearly they see something we don’t. 
 

However, I feel like having 6 pitches is like having 2 or more QBs. It just means you don’t have any. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There are plenty of mid-rotation SPs available that are demonstrably better than the Lyles's and Gibsons ofthe world. Use your "system" to identify a couple that you think are better than the pack, and then beat the market to land one of them. We are running a bottom 3-5 payroll, acting like 3 or 4 year mid-tier free agent contract is going to derail the rebuild and cripple the franchise is absurd.

It is a great excuse to not spend money and pocket a bunch of cash though.

I think the O’s will do this.   You really wanted them to do it twice.   

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s will do this.   You really wanted them to do it twice.   

They mentioned making Gibson better.   I would think Taillon would be that type of pitcher as well if they do land one of these mid tier pitchers.   High spin rates on his curve and fastball.   That is my prediction!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

45 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Again, go on record here. Pick one and what is your wow offer that gets him to the O's? Otherwise there is really nothing to be upset about.

This is a game I have no interest in playing. There are upwards of a dozen or more guys out there who are provably better than Gibson and his decade-long career 94 OPS+ and 1.39 WHIP. I can cite this guy or that guy, and you will cite this reason or that reason for why the worst case scenario is guaranteed to come to pass and so we should just bank on the best case scenario with Gibson, and neither of us will budge an inch.

Thanks, but no thanks.

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But you were against signing Rodon?   That doesn't make sense.

Sure it does. I don't want to gamble 6/$180 million on Carlos Rodon and his chronic throwing arm issues when there are plenty of safer and cheaper options available who would still be meaningful upgrades for the Orioles' rotation.

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s will do this.   You really wanted them to do it twice.   

Yes, because Kremer and Bradish both have red flags in their underlying metrics that hint at regression and GrayRod has never faced a single batter at the MLB level and will probably be capped at 120-140 innings. Placing 2 legitimately good pitchers ahead of them in the rotation would have been a very sound insurance policy.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Yes, because Kremer and Bradish both have red flags in their underlying metrics that hint at regression and GrayRod has never faced a single batter at the MLB level and will probably be capped at 120-140 innings. Placing 2 legitimately good pitchers ahead of them in the rotation would have been a very sound insurance policy.

As I’ve discussed with wildcard on multiple occasions, I think it’s highly likely we see significant regression from Kremer, in terms of end results.  As to Bradish, my question to you is, regression from what?   He had a 4.90 ERA on the season, but 3.28 after returning from the IL.  In that latter stint, his FIP was 3.73.   His overall FIP was 4.45 for the season, xERA 4.49.   So what are you thinking is regression in 2023?   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I’ve discussed with wildcard on multiple occasions, I think it’s highly likely we see significant regression from Kremer, in terms of end results.  As to Bradish, my question to you is, regression from what?   He had a 4.90 ERA on the season, but 3.28 after returning from the IL.  In that latter stint, his FIP was 3.73.   His overall FIP was 4.45 for the season, xERA 4.49.   So what are you thinking is regression in 2023?   

Some people have taken Bradish's solid second half to be indicative of a breakout, or at least a significant step forward. I am not one of them. 

If you showed up in a time machine from December 2023 and told me that both Bradish and Kremer posted 5.00+ ERAs next year, I would have very little trouble believing you.

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is a game I have no interest in playing. There are upwards of a dozen or more guys out there who are provably better than Gibson and his decade-long career 94 OPS+ and 1.39 WHIP. I can cite this guy or that guy, and you will cite this reason or that reason for why the worst case scenario is guaranteed to come to pass and so we should just bank on the best case scenario with Gibson, and neither of us will budge an inch.

Thanks, but no thanks.

 

I'm not looking to go back and forth. Just a guy and a contract years and dollars. Otherwise it is just empty ranting as far as I'm concerned.

[tabletop]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Some people have taken Bradish's solid second half to be indicative of a breakout, or at least a significant step forward. I am not one of them. 

If you showed up in a time machine from December 2023 and told me that both Bradish and Kremer posted 5.00+ ERAs next year, I would have very little trouble believing you.

Why do you think that about Bradish?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sure it does. I don't want to gamble 6/$180 million on Carlos Rodon and his chronic throwing arm issues when there are plenty of safer and cheaper options available who would still be meaningful upgrades for the Orioles' rotation.

You're whole thing is that you want to see them make a significant improvement to the rotation.   Rodon is as significant as you can get.  Sure, he comes with risks, but if you really are for significant improvement Rodon is the risk, I would think, you'd be willing to take.  Taillon at 4 years is a risk.   Bassitt at 4 years and 34 years old is a risk.   They are all risks.     I'm not sure what Rodon's extra 30M a year is going to stop the team from doing over the next 3 years in particular.   They aren't going to get Rodon.    My point is that it seems odd for someone who is continually ragging on them for taking the safe, low risk, low upside route with Gibson is afraid of taking a risk on the one pitcher with the most upside of the remaining FA pitchers.

[Aristotelian]

Back to the topic at hand, I don't know if anybody picked up on this tidbit from MLBTR:

In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

 

[wildcard]

I don't know how you guys live with yourself as O's fans with this kind of negative prespective.    

The O's have shown they have a pitching philosophy that works.   Pitcher after pitcher turned their career around last season under Holt's guidance, better defense and the well thought out move of the Wall.   Elias just said they did their analysis and projected how they think Gibson can turn his career around under that philosophy.  He said they don't go by what is on the back of the player baseball card.   They do their own analysis.   They are the professionals and they have shown they know what they are doing.

If you expect the O's to win the off season you are going to be unhappy.  They are projecting what the players in their system will do and they  are supplementing with free agents, trades, waiver wire claims, Rule 5 guy(s).   The O's are on the up swing with this approach.   Not with spending big on free agents for contracts that are probably too long and losers. 

So have a good time grumbling and thinking negatively.   It will be a long off season for you thinking that way.  But come March when we see all the talent on the field maybe you will perk up or maybe it takes until July.  Who knows?  I wish you luck.

Meanwhile I will enjoy the off season believing in the process the O's are executing to  improve the team.  I have faith in their management team.

Edited December 6, 2022 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Back to the topic at hand, I don't know if anybody picked up on this tidbit from MLBTR:

In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

 

Elias probably reminded the sinkerballer that it's turf in SkyDome and they are installing a slower infield at OPACY!!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

33 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Why do you think that about Bradish?

Decent but unspectacular stuff with decent but unspectacular underlying metrics and an up and down first season in the bigs. It's not that I necessarily expect him to have a poor 2023, but it's not exactly a stretch either. I simply wanted to mitigate that risk by getting better elsewhere in the rotation.

And if he goes out there and has a great season, then you have an even better rotation and a greater chance of grabbing one of those 6 playoff spots that are up for grabs.

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You're whole thing is that you want to see them make a significant improvement to the rotation.   Rodon is as significant as you can get.  Sure, he comes with risks, but if you really are for significant improvement Rodon is the risk, I would think, you'd be willing to take.  Taillon at 4 years is a risk.   Bassitt at 4 years and 34 years old is a risk.   They are all risks.     I'm not sure what Rodon's extra 30M a year is going to stop the team from doing over the next 3 years in particular.   They aren't going to get Rodon.    My point is that it seems odd for someone who is continually ragging on them for taking the safe, low risk, low upside route with Gibson is afraid of taking a risk on the one pitcher with the most upside of the remaining FA pitchers.

There is a middle ground between a 35 year old with a 94 OPS+ in a full decade of work and the #3 free agent starter on the market after 2 future HOFers who is asking for a larger contract than the organization has ever given out where you can reasonably expect a higher reward than the lower road without taking on as much risk as taking the higher road would require. It's not the black and white dichotomy you are trying to make it out to be because you wanted to gamble it all on Rodon.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Some people have taken Bradish's solid second half to be indicative of a breakout, or at least a significant step forward. I am not one of them. 

If you showed up in a time machine from December 2023 and told me that both Bradish and Kremer posted 5.00+ ERAs next year, I would have very little trouble believing you.

Steamer projects Bradish at 4.11, Kremer at 4.51.   Marcel projects Bradish at 4.39, Kremer at 4.04.   I think you are very pessimistic.   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Frobby said:

Steamer projects Bradish at 4.11, Kremer at 4.51.   Marcel projects Bradish at 4.39, Kremer at 4.04.   I think you are very pessimistic.   

See

55 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Why do you think that about Bradish?

 

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Decent but unspectacular stuff with decent but unspectacular underlying metrics and an up and down first season in the bigs. It's not that I necessarily expect him to have a poor 2023, but it's not exactly a stretch either. I simply wanted to mitigate that risk by getting better elsewhere in the rotation.