Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Decent but unspectacular stuff with decent but unspectacular underlying metrics and an up and down first season in the bigs. It's not that I necessarily expect him to have a poor 2023, but it's not exactly a stretch either. I simply wanted to mitigate that risk by getting better elsewhere in the rotation.

And if he goes out there and has a great season, then you have an even better rotation and a greater chance of grabbing one of those 6 playoff spots that are up for grabs.

There is a middle ground between a 35 year old with a 94 OPS+ in a full decade of work and the #3 free agent starter on the market after 2 future HOFers who is asking for a larger contract than the organization has ever given out where you can reasonably expect a higher reward than the lower road without taking on as much risk as taking the higher road would require. It's not the black and white dichotomy you are trying to make it out to be because you wanted to gamble it all on Rodon.

I'm okay with overpaying Taillon, Bassitt, or whoever.    It doesn't have to be Rodon.   BUT, Rodon is clearly the upside pick out of all of the remaining pitchers.    If you want to give the Orioles the best chance to win in 2023, he's pretty clearly the one to risk it on.   His arm could fall off in May, but he's the BEST pitcher out there.    I'm just confused on to your reasoning.   You are okay with modest risk for a modest improvement but not great risk for great improvement.     Bassitt plays more into the 5 strong starter philosophy than the ACE difference maker.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

18 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

a 35 year old with a 94 OPS+ in a full decade of work

ERA+, obviously. Derp.

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You are okay with modest risk for a modest improvement but not great risk for great improvement.     

Yes.

I would replace "modest improvement" with "meaningful improvement" but the general thrust is accurate. Lyles had a 91 ERA+ for us in 2022 and Gibson's 10 year career average is 94. Slotting a guy into that rotation spot who could reasonably be expected to post something in vicinity of 110 (or higher) would have been a meaningful improvement and could have been accomplished without taking on a prohibitive amount of risk.

And it's not even like we saved a ton of money by taking the low road, Gibson is getting $10 million next year and a number of the established, better mid-rotation guys I am talking about won't even get twice that.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

ERA+, obviously. Derp.

Yes.

I would replace "modest improvement" with "meaningful improvement" but the general thrust is accurate. Lyles had a 91 ERA+ for us in 2022 and Gibson's 10 year career average is 94. Slotting a guy into that rotation spot who could reasonably be expected to post something in vicinity of 110 (or higher) would have been a meaningful improvement and could have been accomplished without taking on a prohibitive amount of risk.

And it's not even like we saved a ton of money by taking the low road, Gibson is getting $10 million next year and a number of the established, better mid-rotation guys I am talking about won't even get twice that.

No but it's the same reasoning for Rodon over Bassitt or Taillon.   Gibson is $10M but it's only one year or risk.   Bassitt and Taillon might be as much a 20M but now your risk for for 4 years.     Rodon sounds like he's going to get 6/180 from someone.   More upside.  More risk.

[jerios55]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't know how you guys live with yourself as O's fans with this kind of negative prespective.    

The O's have shown they have a pitching philosophy that works.   Pitcher after pitcher turned their career around last season under Holt's guidance, better defense and the well thought out move of the Wall.   Elias just said they did their analysis and projected how they think Gibson can turn his career around under that philosophy.  He said they don't go by what is on the back of the player baseball card.   They do their own analysis.   They are the professionals and they have shown they know what they are doing.

If you expect the O's to win the off season you are going to be unhappy.  They are projecting what the players in their system will do and they  are supplementing with free agents, trades, waiver wire claims, Rule 5 guy(s).   The O's are on the up swing with this approach.   Not with spending big on free agents for contracts that are probably too long and losers. 

So have a good time grumbling and thinking negatively.   It will be a long off season for you thinking that way.  But come March when we see all the talent on the field maybe you will perk up or maybe it takes until July.  Who knows?  I wish you luck.

Meanwhile I will enjoy the off season believing in the process the O's are executing to  improve the team.  I have faith in their management team.

Same *****ing happened with Lyles.  I get the excitement may not be there, but Lyles gave us a chance most nights.  Hopefully Gibson proves to be an even better version.

Edited December 6, 2022 by jerios55

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

ERA+, obviously. Derp.

Yes.

I would replace "modest improvement" with "meaningful improvement" but the general thrust is accurate. Lyles had a 91 ERA+ for us in 2022 and Gibson's 10 year career average is 94. Slotting a guy into that rotation spot who could reasonably be expected to post something in vicinity of 110 (or higher) would have been a meaningful improvement and could have been accomplished without taking on a prohibitive amount of risk.

And it's not even like we saved a ton of money by taking the low road, Gibson is getting $10 million next year and a number of the established, better mid-rotation guys I am talking about won't even get twice that.

Just a reminder, you are comparing Gibson's average with Lyles career year.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Just a reminder, you are comparing Gibson's average with Lyles career year.

Yes, because Gibson is replacing Lyles. What Lyles did before, or does after, 2022 does not factor into whether meaningfully better production can be reasonably expected in 2023 from his former rotation spot. The answer to that is no.

Also, just for the record, Lyles' career year was 2018 when he posted a 4.15 ERA/106 ERA+ in 28 starts with the Brewers and Pirates. 

[Just Regular]

Took Fangraphs a minute to get through the avalanche, but a piece finally up from one of their contributors who seems pretty dialed into the Pitcher List type stuff.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-gibson-offers-orioles-stability-and-perhaps-stagnation-too/

[Roll Tide]

On 12/6/2022 at 3:55 PM, jerios55 said:

Same *****ing happened with Lyles.  I get the excitement may not be there, but Lyles gave us a chance most nights.  Hopefully Gibson proves to be an even better version.

Not too much to indicate it would be much more than a lateral guy. Perhaps a slight upgrade but really 5th starter types that we are slotting in at #1. 
 

Im not sure why we didn’t just bring Lyles back.IMO the evil you know is better than the one you don’t.

[Roll Tide]

 

[interloper]

Enjoyed his zoom interview with the beat guys. Seems like a knowledgeable and down to earth guy. He's into the analytics and mentioned glowing reviews from Chirinos and Lyles about the organization and team.

[rm5678]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Enjoyed his zoom interview with the beat guys. Seems like a knowledgeable and down to earth guy. He's into the analytics and mentioned glowing reviews from Chirinos and Lyles about the organization and team.

While I always looked forward to Lyles' post-game interviews, I think I'm even more looking forward to hearing Gibson.

[Etch]

and the Dumpster Diving Award goes to...the Baltimore Orioles for the umpteenth year in a row!!

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Etch

[Frobby]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/gibson-i-ve-always-enjoyed-playing-in-baltimore

[Going Underground]

13 hours ago, interloper said:

Enjoyed his zoom interview with the beat guys. Seems like a knowledgeable and down to earth guy. He's into the analytics and mentioned glowing reviews from Chirinos and Lyles about the organization and team.

Heard him on WBAL radio coming home last night. Seemed to know the analytics and art of pitching. Also seemed knowledgeable about the wall and Orioles catcher and defense.Mentioned that Lyles said Holmsey and Holt are great to work with. Camden Yards is his favorite ballpark. Looking forward to bringing his wife and four kids,one on the way to Baltimore.  Sounds like a guy who would make a good announcer when he retires.

[RZNJ]

Gotta love an article by Melewski that focuses on Gibsons increased velocity and improved slider in September last year, without mentioning the over 1.000 OPS allowed or the 9.73 ERA in the months of September/October.    Even the quotes by Gibson seem to indicate that he had good stuff during that time.   Kind of funny.

 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/a-closer-look-at-kyle-gibson-s-late-season-strikeout-surge