Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[waroriole]

Just my two cents on Gibson. His xFIP has been consistently in the high 3s, low 4s the last 5 years. I’m assuming they think with Walltimore and the O’s defense, he should provide better results than Lyles. Even with him being 35, that’s a good bet.
 

Also, if you look at last year, he was on pace to provide a season similar to 2021. Up until September he had a 4.08 ERA in 139 innings. He gave up 31 ER in 28.2 IP to finish the season and his ERA shot up over 5. I also assume they see where a correction can be made to fix what happened in September/October. 

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course..but the odds are that he won’t. He only 3 seasons in his ML career better (ERA wise) than what Lyles did in 2022 and he had 1 other season that was basically the exact same.

Other than that, it’s been far worse.

Fangraphs projections give Gibson a 4.21 ERA which is slightly better than Lyles 2022. Of course these algos are wildly uncertain but I have no reason to think that is not a fair, unbiased projection. Using fWAR he has been above 2.0 in 5 of 8 seasons and never below 1.0. With the whole O's staff over performing last year I have to think Adley and the wall are having an effect that Lyles benefitted from and Gibson will too. So I'd say odds are good he will be better than Lyles 2022 but certainly not a lock. Maybe 60/40 or 55/45.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

52 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Just my two cents on Gibson. His xFIP has been consistently in the high 3s, low 4s the last 5 years. I’m assuming they think with Walltimore and the O’s defense, he should provide better results than Lyles. Even with him being 35, that’s a good bet.
 

Also, if you look at last year, he was on pace to provide a season similar to 2021. Up until September he had a 4.08 ERA in 139 innings. He gave up 31 ER in 28.2 IP to finish the season and his ERA shot up over 5. I also assume they see where a correction can be made to fix what happened in September/October. 

If they believe they can simply sign mediocre pitchers and turn them into decent pitchers, why don't they sign decent pitchers and turn them into good pitchers? 

And Gibson has an established track record of being worse in the second half, 2022 was not unique in that. Maybe they can fix that. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not unfair to say you don’t look at 4 years ago for a 35 year old.

I think the last 2 years are the most relevant. 

If we were to set the O/U for his ErA at 4.25 and his IP at 150.5, what are you taking?

 

The way MLB Is today, it’s hard to take the over on 150.5 innings for any pitcher.  As I posted a few weeks ago, only 19 pitchers in all of MLB threw enough innings to qualify the last two years in a row.  If you dialed it back to 151 innnings, maybe there would be 25 pitchers.  (Edit: it’s 33.). In any event, Gibson has thrown more than 151 innings 5 years in a row excluding the Covid year (when he was on pace to throw 175+), so he’s about as good a bet as anyone in baseball to meet that threshold, the only ding being his age.   

As to a 4.25 ERA, I’d rather use ERA+, since we don’t know whether the offensive environment will be up generally from 2022.   Last year Tyler Wells had a 4.25 ERA and that equated to a 94 ERA+.  That happens to be Gibson’s career ERA+.   So an average Gibson season would get you there.  He’s going on 36, so from that standpoint I’d say the odds are less than 50/50 that he beats 94.  On the other, I believe it when Elias said they specifically targeted Gibson because they saw ways they can help him, and he seems on board.  I’m an optimist, so I’ll take the over on 94 OPS+, but frankly you’ve set the bar in exactly the right spot.  FWIW, Steamer projects Gibson at 172 innings at 4.21 ERA, Marcel says 162 innings at 4.44 ERA.
 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Frobby

[Number5]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course..but the odds are that he won’t. He only 3 seasons in his ML career better (ERA wise) than what Lyles did in 2022 and he had 1 other season that was basically the exact same.

Other than that, it’s been far worse.

I believe that it is much more likely for 2023 Gibson to have numbers similar to 2022 Lyles than for 2023 Lyles to.  Easier to believe Gibson can attain pretty much his career average than it is to believe Lyles will match his career best, IMO.  Gibson's been a solid MLB SP for quite a while.  Not overly concerned about his age on a one year deal.  Looks like a good signing to me.

[interloper]

Rodon wants 7 now apparently. LOL. Might as well ask for it in this market I guess.

Anyone who thinks we're still in the Rodon sweepstakes (I'm not sure anybody actually does) should be getting off on the next exit. The dream is definitely dead now. 

Edited December 9, 2022 by interloper

[E-D-D-I-E]

On 12/7/2022 at 7:08 PM, RZNJ said:

There’s nothing wrong with feeling that way.  Just be “clear” that you are speculating and don’t really know if that’s the case.  That seems like the tweet of a fan, not a reporter.  Unless he knows something.  If he does he should tell us.

Fellas, have you been paying any attention to the media right now? 'News' proven to be false with no retractions. They can say anything they want. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

3 hours ago, Number5 said:

I believe that it is much more likely for 2023 Gibson to have numbers similar to 2022 Lyles than for 2023 Lyles to.  Easier to believe Gibson can attain pretty much his career average than it is to believe Lyles will match his career best, IMO.  Gibson's been a solid MLB SP for quite a while.  Not overly concerned about his age on a one year deal.  Looks like a good signing to me.

I truly believe we will see Lyles signed as well.