Taking Elias and Hyde’s comments at face value

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean even if I accept all the analysis, which I don't fully, you seem to acknowledge it would be extremely difficult to trade Santader and get back pieces which actually improve the 2023 team.   Which is kind of where I was a few months ago, and why I think it was pretty obvious what the O's plans were.

You don’t have to trade Santander to get pieces to help you in 2023. 

It’s buying and selling. You can easily trade him and still have an all around team that is better in 2023 vs 2022

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, they've got one "mid-rotation" starter.  I guess you could quibble and call Gibson "back of the rotation" but they have upgraded their rotation, if you accept that Gibson is better than Lyles, which would be the industry consensus.  

Yes they upgraded but it’s a minimal upgrade and it’s very possible that even though Gibson is better, that he is equal or worse to what Lyles was in 2022.

[tabletop]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think 2022 is a fluke and that season happened largely because of your young talent, your program, etc..that means you are questioning what you are doing.

The thought process should be that 2022 was just the start and we expect to be better going forward. The word fluke shouldn’t be part of any conversation.

So if last year wasn't a fluke why are they openly saying they don't think they can compete for the AL East this year and are hoping to make the playoffs but aren't going to do anything to make the playoffs that could potentially have a negative impact on the 2024 and beyond teams?

[CaptainRedbeard]

The LH bat is interesting, especially since Elias said they're looking for one of the caliber that they would slot into the opening day lineup. Elias also said they are conscious of blocking prospects, and anybody they add is going to make it harder for Cowser to make his way into the lineup this season, in addition to taking ABs away from either Hays or Stowers (and Vavra, if they think he's an OF and not a 2B). 

If the LH bat they add can play 1B or they think Santander, Stowers or Adley can play 1B, then they could also cut into Mountcastle's ABs, but I think only a handful of the available FAs fit that description.

Reading between the lines I think they are only looking for a 1 yr deal for the LH bat.  Looking at the LF OF/1B/DH available:

• Nimmo - not going to happen.
• Benintendi - going to get an expensive multi-year deal, so no.
• Profar - likely to get a multi-year deal given age and strong platform year, but he could be on the table.
• Conforto - perhaps the best case scenario, if he's looking for a 1-yr deal to then re-enter FA next year.
• Gallo - likely looking for a 1-yr deal similar to Conforto, with the positive that he may have 1B flexibility, but coming off a truly horrific 2022 season.
• Brantley - I think the most likely guy we end up with, given he will get a 1 yr deal, probably won't demand every day ABs given age, and has continued to be a very good hitter for a long time.
• Belt - similar to Brantley, but a bigger injury concern and showed much more drop off last year.
• Peralta - maybe the last fall back option, but don't see the benefit to adding him to take ABs away from Stowers.
• Carpenter - can definitely still hit, but much more of a bench bat than "Opening Day starter" at this stage.

I don't see anybody else that would meaningfully slot above Franchy Cordero on the depth chart. There's a handful of other guys similarly around the cheap 1-yr deal / MiL contract line, all of which should also definitely be behind Stowers in the Opening Day lineup so not really fitting the description that Elias provided.

Altogether, I'll be disappointed if our only moves are to add Gibson, one of the above, and a middling SP.  We aren't going to be projected to even eclipse our 83 wins from last year if those are our only moves.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes they upgraded but it’s a minimal upgrade and it’s very possible that even though Gibson is better, that he is equal or worse to what Lyles was in 2022.

Agreed.  I don't think they're done yet though.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t have to trade Santander to get pieces to help you in 2023. 

It’s buying and selling. You can easily trade him and still have an all around team that is better in 2023 vs 2022

You can do a lot of things.  Virtually anything is possible.

But again, we're talking about expectations and, frankly, reality, here.

Trading your best power hitter- particularly if the return is MiLs- is very, very unlikely to make you better in the short-term.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, tabletop said:

So if last year wasn't a fluke why are they openly saying they don't think they can compete for the AL East this year and are hoping to make the playoffs but aren't going to do anything to make the playoffs that could potentially have a negative impact on the 2024 and beyond teams?

I think he’s just saying he doesn’t think this will be a 100 win team.  I think it’s still a horrible comment and he should be striving to be that but they won’t spend what it takes to get them those extra wins.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

You can do a lot of things.  Virtually anything is possible.

But again, we're talking about expectations and, frankly, reality, here.

Trading your best power hitter- particularly if the return is MiLs- is very, very unlikely to make you better in the short-term.

Well I don’t think he’s our best power hitter and even if he was, he’s also a 250/310 guy, which isn’t very valuable.  You are placing a ton of value on homers.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The LH bat is interesting, especially since Elias said they're looking for one of the caliber that they would slot into the opening day lineup. Elias also said they are conscious of blocking prospects, and anybody they add is going to make it harder for Cowser to make his way into the lineup this season, in addition to taking ABs away from either Hays or Stowers (and Vavra, if they think he's an OF and not a 2B). 

If the LH bat they add can play 1B or they think Santander, Stowers or Adley can play 1B, then they could also cut into Mountcastle's ABs, but I think only a handful of the available FAs fit that description.

Reading between the lines I think they are only looking for a 1 yr deal for the LH bat.  Looking at the LF OF/1B/DH available:

• Nimmo - not going to happen.
• Benintendi - going to get an expensive multi-year deal, so no.
• Profar - likely to get a multi-year deal given age and strong platform year, but he could be on the table.
• Conforto - perhaps the best case scenario, if he's looking for a 1-yr deal to then re-enter FA next year.
• Gallo - likely looking for a 1-yr deal similar to Conforto, with the positive that he may have 1B flexibility, but coming off a truly horrific 2022 season.
• Brantley - I think the most likely guy we end up with, given he will get a 1 yr deal, probably won't demand every day ABs given age, and has continued to be a very good hitter for a long time.
• Belt - similar to Brantley, but a bigger injury concern and showed much more drop off last year.
• Peralta - maybe the last fall back option, but don't see the benefit to adding him to take ABs away from Stowers.
• Carpenter - can definitely still hit, but much more of a bench bat than "Opening Day starter" at this stage.

I don't see anybody else that would meaningfully slot above Franchy Cordero on the depth chart. There's a handful of other guys similarly around the cheap 1-yr deal / MiL contract line, all of which should also definitely be behind Stowers in the Opening Day lineup so not really fitting the description that Elias provided.

Altogether, I'll be disappointed if our only moves are to add Gibson, one of the above, and a middling SP.  We aren't going to be projected to even eclipse our 83 wins from last year if those are our only moves.

All of us have been talking about the trade acquisition being a pitcher..what if it’s a hitter?  

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The LH bat is interesting, especially since Elias said they're looking for one of the caliber that they would slot into the opening day lineup. Elias also said they are conscious of blocking prospects, and anybody they add is going to make it harder for Cowser to make his way into the lineup this season, in addition to taking ABs away from either Hays or Stowers (and Vavra, if they think he's an OF and not a 2B). 

If the LH bat they add can play 1B or they think Santander, Stowers or Adley can play 1B, then they could also cut into Mountcastle's ABs, but I think only a handful of the available FAs fit that description.

Reading between the lines I think they are only looking for a 1 yr deal for the LH bat.  Looking at the LF OF/1B/DH available:

• Nimmo - not going to happen.
• Benintendi - going to get an expensive multi-year deal, so no.
• Profar - likely to get a multi-year deal given age and strong platform year, but he could be on the table.
• Conforto - perhaps the best case scenario, if he's looking for a 1-yr deal to then re-enter FA next year.
• Gallo - likely looking for a 1-yr deal similar to Conforto, with the positive that he may have 1B flexibility, but coming off a truly horrific 2022 season.
• Brantley - I think the most likely guy we end up with, given he will get a 1 yr deal, probably won't demand every day ABs given age, and has continued to be a very good hitter for a long time.
• Belt - similar to Brantley, but a bigger injury concern and showed much more drop off last year.
• Peralta - maybe the last fall back option, but don't see the benefit to adding him to take ABs away from Stowers.
• Carpenter - can definitely still hit, but much more of a bench bat than "Opening Day starter" at this stage.

I don't see anybody else that would meaningfully slot above Franchy Cordero on the depth chart. There's a handful of other guys similarly around the cheap 1-yr deal / MiL contract line, all of which should also definitely be behind Stowers in the Opening Day lineup so not really fitting the description that Elias provided.

Altogether, I'll be disappointed if our only moves are to add Gibson, one of the above, and a middling SP.  We aren't going to be projected to even eclipse our 83 wins from last year if those are our only moves.

Carpenter or Brantley would be great fits. I’d be happy if we just landed one of them. Bassitt would be a good fit too, but it’s looking like he will be expensive, and we have to surrender a draft pick. 

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, tabletop said:

The way I see it is they think last year was a fluke and want to see them do it again before taking it seriously.

What doesn't make sense to me is that he said he doesn't want to hurt the 2024, 2025, etc. teams by blocking prospects yet last year they had two guys who have a chance at becoming everyday major league players (Stowers and Vavra) sitting on the bench watching Rougned Odor and Jesus Aguilar play.

Apparently, Stowers isn't a nugget.  They talk about acquiring a player who will be on the level of Hays/Mullins/Santander and working that player into the 9 man everyday lineup.   That's not good for Stowers.

[jcaponio]

I think the most interesting thing to come out of all his quotes yesterday was that they're looking for another hitter who "would be in the starting nine on opening day." If C/1B/2B/3B/LF/CF/DH are set with Adley/Mountcastle/Urias/Gunnar/Hays/Mullins/Santander, that leaves just SS and corner OF. If they're not in on Correa or Swanson, who, other than Benintendi, could that be?

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Apparently, Stowers isn't a nugget.  They talk about acquiring a player who will be on the level of Hays/Mullins/Santander and working that player into the 9 man everyday lineup.   That's not good for Stowers.

It sounded like he wants at least 10 for 9 spots. It’s the smart approach, in case of injuries, underperformance, or just to give guys more rest. 

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, they've got one "mid-rotation" starter.  I guess you could quibble and call Gibson "back of the rotation" but they have upgraded their rotation, if you accept that Gibson is better than Lyles, which would be the industry consensus.  

thats my problem. Gibson was a bit better career wise, but this past season, the younger Lyles out pitched Gibson.

We need 5 solid arms to pitch on their scheduled turn, I dont care if they are middle or back end. Ideally, every rotation needs a TOR Ace to set the tone for the staff.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, they've got one "mid-rotation" starter.  I guess you could quibble and call Gibson "back of the rotation" but they have upgraded their rotation, if you accept that Gibson is better than Lyles, which would be the industry consensus.  

There is no "quibbling" on the matter. Gibson is a back of the rotation starter, a decade of data says so- 4.52 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP.

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

All of us have been talking about the trade acquisition being a pitcher..what if it’s a hitter?  

An interesting idea, but Elias's comments seem to make adding a bat sound like a lower priority. I do wonder who would be out there though. Winker would have been the most obvious candidate but he has already been moved.